今年“社會融資”或達18萬億

Aggregate private financing will amount to 18 trillion yuan in 2015. The figure is 13.6% up on last year, according to a report by the Bank of Communications Tuesday, alongside a 12.5% expansion of M2.

交通銀行發(fā)布報告稱，2015年，我國社會融資總額將達18萬億元，同比增速13.6%，全年廣義貨幣增速12.5%。

“社會融資”即private financing，也譯作“民間融資”，它是反映國內(nèi)資金總量的流動性指標(liquidity measure)。社會融資總量除了包含金融機構(gòu)新增貸款(new loans)外，還進一步納入股票、債券融資(stock financing and bond financing)等。明年各類直接融資(direct financing)活躍度也將持續(xù)提升。

報告認為，2015年貨幣政策(monetary policy)將繼續(xù)穩(wěn)健偏松，上半年不排除小幅降息(the interest rates will be cut by a small margin)的可能。報告預(yù)計，2015年存款準備金率可能會有0.5至1.5個百分點的下調(diào)(the required reserve ratio will be cut by 0.5-1.5 percentage points)。