托福雙語(yǔ)閱讀素材：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的收縮效應(yīng)

想要提高托福閱讀能力，我們一定要在日常生活中有意識(shí)地增加英語(yǔ)閱讀量，提升語(yǔ)感和熟練度，這其中比較常用也比較方便地一個(gè)方式就是利用各類(lèi)英文報(bào)刊雜志文章進(jìn)行精讀與泛讀練習(xí)。下面我們來(lái)看一篇經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人文章：經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的收縮效應(yīng)。

economic development

Shrink wrap

Why the history of economic growth should be all about recessions

經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展

收縮效應(yīng)

為何經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)史的關(guān)鍵在于衰退

“THROUGHOUT history, poverty is the normal condition of man,” wrote Robert Heinlein, a science-fiction writer. Until the 18th century, global GDP per person was stuck between $725 and $1,100, around the same income level as the World Bank’s current poverty line of $1.90 a day. But global income levels per person have since accelerated, from around $1,100 in 1800 to $3,600 in 1950, and over $10,000 today.

“縱觀歷史，貧窮是人們的常態(tài)。”科幻作家羅伯特·海因萊因(Robert Heinlein)寫(xiě)道。直到18世紀(jì)，全球人均GDP一直停留在725美元至1100美元之間，這個(gè)收入水平大致相當(dāng)于目前世界銀行劃定的貧困線：每天1.9美元。但從那時(shí)起，全球人均收入水平開(kāi)始加速增長(zhǎng)，從1800年的1100美元左右上升至1950年的3600美元，現(xiàn)在已超過(guò)10,000美元。

Economists have long tried to explain this sudden surge in output. Most theories have focused on the factors driving long-term economic growth such as the quantity and productivity of labour and capital. But a new paper* takes a different tack: faster growth is not due to bigger booms, but to less shrinking in recessions. Stephen Broadberry of Oxford University and John Wallis of the University of Maryland have taken data for 18 countries in Europe and the New World, some from as far back as the 13th century. To their surprise, they found that growth during years of economic expansion has fallen in the recent era—from 3.88% between 1820 and 1870 to 3.06% since 1950—even though average growth across all years in those two periods increased from 1.4% to 2.55%.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直試圖解釋何以出現(xiàn)這一產(chǎn)出的激增。大多數(shù)理論都聚焦于驅(qū)動(dòng)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的因素，如勞動(dòng)力的數(shù)量和生產(chǎn)率，以及資本。但一篇新論文*采用了不同的方法加以探究，認(rèn)為增長(zhǎng)加快并非緣于繁榮期更加蓬勃發(fā)展，而是因?yàn)樗ネ似诘氖湛s程度減弱。牛津大學(xué)的斯蒂芬·布勞德伯利(Stephen Broadberry)和馬里蘭大學(xué)的約翰·沃里斯(John Wallis) 收集了來(lái)自歐洲和美洲共18個(gè)國(guó)家早至13世紀(jì)的數(shù)據(jù)。他們驚奇地發(fā)現(xiàn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張期的增長(zhǎng)率在近期反而是下降的：在1820至1870年間，經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張年份的增長(zhǎng)率為3.88%，而從1950年至今，這一數(shù)字為3.06%，盡管這兩個(gè)時(shí)期里所有年份的平均增長(zhǎng)率從1.4%上升到了2.55%。

Instead, shorter and shallower slumps led to rising long-term growth. Output fell in a third of years between 1820 and 1870 but in only 12% of those since 1950. The rate of decline per recession year has fallen too, from 3% to 1.2%.

相反，是衰退期縮短及其程度的減輕帶來(lái)了更快的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)。1820年至1870年間，三分之一的年份出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)出下降，但自1950年以來(lái)，產(chǎn)出下降的年頭僅占12%，每一個(gè)衰退年份的下降幅度也從3%減至1.2%。

So why have these “growth reversals” decreased in length and depth? In another paper** Messrs Broadberry and Wallis find that conventional explanations—such as demographic change or a sectoral shift from volatile agriculture to the more stable services sector—do not fully explain the shift.

這些“增長(zhǎng)逆轉(zhuǎn)期”為何在時(shí)間和程度上出現(xiàn)下降?在另一篇論文**中，布勞德伯利和沃里斯發(fā)現(xiàn)，常規(guī)推論(如人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化或經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)轉(zhuǎn)移，即從波動(dòng)較大的農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向更穩(wěn)定的服務(wù)業(yè))并不能完全解釋這種變化。

More important is the rise of the rule of law, enabling disputes to be settled by impartial courts. Before the modern era, elites would fight between themselves for the spoils of growth and send the economy back to square one through wars, corruption and the like. Respect for courts to resolve disputes prevents this from happening. With populist politicians challenging the authority of judges once again across the world, that is food for thought.

更重要的是法治的興起，使人們可以通過(guò)公正的法庭解決爭(zhēng)議?，F(xiàn)代之前，精英之間為奪取經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)成果而爭(zhēng)斗不休，因此產(chǎn)生的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、貪腐等更是會(huì)令經(jīng)濟(jì)崩塌歸零。尊重法院解決糾紛則可以防止這種情況發(fā)生。隨著當(dāng)今全球各地民粹主義政客再次挑戰(zhàn)法官的權(quán)威，上述觀點(diǎn)值得我們深思。

* “Growing, Shrinking and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development” by S. Broadberry and J. Wallis

** “Shrink Theory: The Nature of Long Run and Short Run Economic Performance”

*《增長(zhǎng)、收縮和長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)：從歷史角度看經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展》，斯蒂芬·布勞德伯利及約翰·沃里斯著

**《收縮理論：長(zhǎng)期及短期經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)的本質(zhì)》