BEC中級閱讀:油價(jià)推助糧食期貨價(jià)格飆升

Agricultural commodities rose to multi-year highs yesterday following crude oil’s surge to $100 a barrel as traders anticipated higher demand from the expanding global biofuels industry.

In Chicago, wheat jumped 16 cents to $9.31 a bushel, 59 cents below its all-time high, while soyabeans rose to $12.38, a fresh 34-year high, and corn traded within touching distance of its recent 11-year high.

In Paris, rapeseed prices rose to record levels, up 1.5 per cent to €444.75 a tonne, while Malaysian palm oil futures also hit a record $961 a tonne yesterday.

As grains and oil seeds are key feedstuffs for biofuels, the oil price rise has exerted a huge push on agricultural commodities, which enjoyed their best returns for almost 30 years in 2007. The S&P GSCI agricultural commodities index returned 31 per cent last year, its best performance since 1981.

Support is also coming from population growth and demand for animal feed.

“This combination of food, feed and fuel demand for crops has created an upward shift in the trend demand growth for agriculture products,” said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

He said global biofuel demand could increase from 10bn gallons a year in 2005 to 25bn gallons annually by 2010, an annualised growth rate of 20 per cent.

As a result of supply disappointments and rising demand, stocks have fallen to historic lows in many agricultural markets, leaving prices very susceptible to upward price shocks.

Many analysts believe the rally for agricultural commodities is only just beginning.

Notes:
本文參考譯文：
在原油價(jià)格飆升至每桶100美元后，農(nóng)業(yè)大宗產(chǎn)品價(jià)格昨日升至多年高點(diǎn)，因交易員預(yù)計(jì)來自日益擴(kuò)大的全球生物燃料行業(yè)的需求將會(huì)增加。
在芝加哥，小麥期貨價(jià)格上漲16美分至每蒲式耳9.31美元，距離其歷史高點(diǎn)59美分，而大豆期貨價(jià)格升至12.38美元，創(chuàng)下34年新高，玉米期貨價(jià)格距近期創(chuàng)下的11年高位僅咫尺之遙
在巴黎，油菜籽價(jià)格升至歷史高點(diǎn)，上漲1.5%至每噸444.75歐元，而馬來西亞棕櫚油期貨昨日上探每噸961美元的歷史高點(diǎn)。
由于糧食和油菜籽是生物燃料的關(guān)鍵原料，油價(jià)上漲給農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品價(jià)格帶來了巨大的推動(dòng)力。2007年，農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品市場的回報(bào)水平為近30年來最高。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾GSCI農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品指數(shù)去年的漲幅為31%，為1981年以來的最佳水平。
人口增長以及對動(dòng)物飼料的需求也為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格提供了支撐。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)大宗商品研究主管杰弗里柯里(Jeffrey Currie)表示：“在食品、飼料和燃料方面對農(nóng)作物的需求混合在一起，造成了對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品需求增長趨勢的上行變化。”
他表示，到2010年，全球生物燃料需求可能從2005年的每年100億加侖增至每年250億加侖，折合為年率每年增長20%。
由于供應(yīng)方面不盡人意及需求不斷上升，許多農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場的庫存水平降至歷史低點(diǎn)，這使得價(jià)格很容易受到上行沖擊的影響。
許多分析師認(rèn)為，此輪農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品的上漲才剛剛開始。