經(jīng)濟衰退來了嗎?如何辨別它們?

經(jīng)濟衰退來了嗎?如何辨別它們?

Warning bells are going off about a possible recession in America, perhaps in time for the 2020 election. The key to whether the US economy keeps growing or stalls rests largely on consumers, and whether or not they keep spending.

在2020年大選之前，美國可能會陷入經(jīng)濟衰退的警鐘已經(jīng)敲響。美國經(jīng)濟是繼續(xù)增長還是停滯，關(guān)鍵在很大程度上取決于消費者，以及他們是否繼續(xù)消費。

So far, consumer spending has held up pretty well. That's not surprising. Unemployment is near a 50-year low, and wages are growing strong. Because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the nation's economic activity, that's all good news.

到目前為止，消費者支出狀況良好。這并不奇怪。失業(yè)率接近50年來的最低點，工資也在強勁增長。由于消費者支出約占美國經(jīng)濟活動的70%，這都是好消息。

"The consumer drives the economic train," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "If American households are out spending, the economy will remain intact. We'll avoid a recession. But if American households waver in their spending, it's game over -- we're in a recession."

穆迪分析首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家馬克•贊迪表示:“消費者驅(qū)動著經(jīng)濟列車。”他說:“如果美國家庭減少開支，經(jīng)濟就不會受到影響。我們將避免經(jīng)濟衰退。但如果美國家庭在支出上動搖，結(jié)果就不盡人意了——我們正處于衰退之中。

Zandi is in the school of economists who believe that consumers are not quite ready to stop spending. Unemployment is currently only 3.7%. It has been below 4% for 17 straight months. If the number of jobless starts to rise, that's cause for worry, he said.

包括贊迪在內(nèi)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家學(xué)派認(rèn)為，消費者還沒有完全準(zhǔn)備好停止消費。目前失業(yè)率僅為3.7%。連續(xù)17個月低于4%。他說，如果失業(yè)人數(shù)開始上升，那就值得擔(dān)心。

Lynn Franco is senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, one of the research firms which tracks consumer confidence. She said people still feel good about the job market, and that makes them feel better about spending. "That's one of the pillars of consumer spending."

林恩·佛朗哥是世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)高級主管，該機構(gòu)是追蹤消費者信心的研究機構(gòu)之一。她說，人們?nèi)匀粚蜆I(yè)市場感覺良好，這使他們對消費感覺更好。“這是消費支出的支柱之一。

But hiring by employers has already slowed by about a quarter this year compared to the same time last year. If businesses pull back on hiring more, unemployment could start to rise. Zandi said he believes there's a better than 50% chance that could happen by spring 2020.

但與去年同期相比，今年雇主的招聘速度已經(jīng)放緩了約四分之一。如果企業(yè)減少招聘，失業(yè)率可能會開始上升。贊迪說，他相信，到2020年春季，實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的可能性超過50%。

Despite strength so far, there are some worrisome signs in consumer spending.

盡管到目前為止經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)強勁，但消費者支出仍有一些令人擔(dān)憂的跡象。

The sale of cars and homes -- big-ticket purchases that are good barometers of spending -- are weakening. Both fell about 2% in the first half of 2019 over the same period the year earlier, even though low interest rates made it relatively cheap to borrow.

汽車和住宅的銷售正在走弱，而高價購買是良好的支出晴雨表。與去年同期相比，這兩種產(chǎn)業(yè)在2019年上半年的股價均下跌了約2%，盡管低利率使得借貸成本相對較低。

And any decline in cars and home purchases can have ripple effects.

汽車和房屋購買量的任何下降都可能產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)。

And some major retailers, such as Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT) have reported strong US sales. "Our customers' economic health remains solid," Walmart CFO Brett Biggs told investors last week. On Wednesday Target reported a 3% rise in US sales.

一些主要零售商，如沃爾瑪和塔吉特，報告了美國的強勁銷售。沃爾瑪首席財務(wù)官布雷特•比格斯(Brett Biggs)上周對投資者表示:“我們客戶的經(jīng)濟健康狀況依然穩(wěn)健。”塔吉特百貨周三公布，美國銷售額增長3%。

But Zandi warned some of those gains may come at the expense of smaller retailers, both mom-and-pop stores as well as other chains such as Macy's (M) or JCPenney (JCP). And Zandi said if retail sales start to slow, it could lead to widespread store closings and layoffs through throughout the retail sector.

但贊迪警告說，其中一些增長可能會以規(guī)模較小的零售商為代價，包括夫妻店以及梅西百貨(Macy's)或杰西潘尼(JCPenney)等其他連鎖店。贊迪說，如果零售銷售開始放緩，可能會導(dǎo)致整個零售行業(yè)普遍關(guān)閉商店和裁員。

"The retail sector is right on precipice of a major shakeout. That's a lot of jobs in every community across the country," he said.

他說:“零售業(yè)正處在一次重大調(diào)整的懸崖邊上。全國每個社區(qū)都有大量的就業(yè)機會。”