五個(gè)原因讓本屆世界杯進(jìn)球如此之少

After every World Cup team had played once, scoring remained at historical lows in the tournament. The 32 teams combined for just 25 goals in the first 16 games of the Cup, a rate of 1.56 goals per game. That's well down from 2.44 goals in the first 16 games at the 2006 World Cup, and 2.88 goals in 2002.

在每只球隊(duì)都出場(chǎng)亮相過(guò)一次后，本屆南非世界杯的進(jìn)球數(shù)仍處在歷史低點(diǎn)。在前16場(chǎng)比賽中，32只球隊(duì)總共踢進(jìn)25個(gè)球，平均每場(chǎng)進(jìn)球1.56個(gè)。這一數(shù)據(jù)遠(yuǎn)低于2006年德國(guó)世界杯同期的2.44個(gè)和2002年韓日世界杯的2.88個(gè)。 

Overall in the Cup's first 16 games, teams took 410 shots, but just 106 of them were on target, according to ESPN's stats. That's a rate of 26%. In the first 16 games in 2006, there were 435 shots--barely more than this year. But 44% of them were on target. That percentage held for the entirety of the 2006 tournament.

ESPN 的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在本屆杯賽前16場(chǎng)比賽中，32只隊(duì)伍共有410次射門(mén)機(jī)會(huì)，其中只有106次射正，射正率為26％。相比而言，2006年世界杯前16場(chǎng)比賽共有435次的射門(mén)機(jī)會(huì)（與本屆比賽相差無(wú)幾），但是其中有44％射正，這一比例也幾乎貫穿整屆杯賽。

Errant shooting appears to be the decisive factor in the low-scoring start to the Cup. Of the shots on goal in teams' first games this year, 23% found the back of the net--slightly higher than the rate of 20% in the first 16 games last year, and the 18% mark for the tournament overall. This year's rate also is in line with the 23% of shots on goal that were scores in 2002.

射門(mén)失誤看似是今年世界杯開(kāi)場(chǎng)至今進(jìn)球數(shù)少的決定性因素。在前16場(chǎng)比賽中，射正的球中只有23％最終入門(mén)，比上屆杯賽的20％和歷屆世界杯平均18％的數(shù)字略高，而與2002年持平。

What might explain all the misfires? Here are some possible explanations:

射門(mén)啞火，原因何在？下面提供幾個(gè)可能的解釋：

• The ball. 比賽用球。

Some players have complained about it, and it does seem like an inordinate number of shots are sailing over the woodwork (perhaps because of the altitude, not the ball). But players must adjust to the ball at each World Cup, and an unpredictable flight can affect goalies as well as shooters.

一些球員曾表達(dá)過(guò)對(duì)比賽用球“普天同慶”的不滿。看起來(lái)的確好像飛過(guò)門(mén)框的球數(shù)多了點(diǎn)（也許是因?yàn)殚T(mén)框高度的原因，而不是球本身）。但是，每屆世界杯上，球員都要適應(yīng)比賽用球，詭異的飛行路線影響的不僅僅是守門(mén)員，還有射手。

• Lack of scoring talent. 缺乏得分能力。

Perhaps players are shooting poorly because they are poor shooters. If that were the case, though, we might also expect scoring to be down in other top competitions. Yet during the 29 games in the knockout stage of this year's Champions League - the premier European club tournament, featuring most of the world's best players--teams scored 82 goals, compared to 59 in the equivalent 29 games in 2006.

也許球員射門(mén)不正是因?yàn)樗麄儽緛?lái)就不是好射手。但如果真是如此，其他頂級(jí)賽事的進(jìn)球數(shù)也應(yīng)該低?？墒?，在今年歐洲冠軍聯(lián)賽淘汰賽階段的29場(chǎng)比賽中，共有82個(gè)進(jìn)球，而2006年那屆比賽同樣有29場(chǎng)比賽，總進(jìn)球數(shù)則為59個(gè)。歐洲冠軍聯(lián)賽是歐洲頂級(jí)俱樂(lè)部賽事，集中了大部分全世界最好的球員。

• Stat-keeping quirks. 數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)。

Whether a shot is on target is a judgment call, one different scorers make differently. For instance, while ESPN recorded 25 shots for Spain, five of them on goal, in its game against Switzerland on Wednesday, those numbers were 24 and eight, respectively, according to FIFA, the tournament organizers. Similarly, while ESPN had nine shots for the Swiss, two of them on target, FIFA had eight and three, respectively. That adds up to big differences: FIFA has an overall shooting percentage - the term I'll use for percentage of shots that are on goal, whether or not they go in - for the first 16 games of 33%, compared to 26% of shots on target by ESPN's count. (It's possible this is because FIFA doesn't count blocked shots as shots.) Similarly FIFA had an overall shooting percentage of 48% in 2006, compared to 44% for ESPN. However, they corresponded closely in 2002. And both data sources agree that there was a big drop between last year and this year, and that the shooting percentage in the first 16 games in 2006 was 44%.

不管所謂的射正率這一說(shuō)法是否帶有主觀性，不同數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)者提供的數(shù)據(jù)會(huì)有所不同。比如，西班牙和瑞士的那場(chǎng)比賽，ESPN的數(shù)據(jù)是25次射門(mén)，五次射正；而賽事組織方國(guó)際足聯(lián)公布的數(shù)據(jù)則是24次射門(mén)，八次射正。與此同時(shí)，ESPN數(shù)據(jù)顯示瑞士隊(duì)有九次射門(mén)，兩次射正；國(guó)際足聯(lián)的則是八次射門(mén)，三次射正。這樣一算，區(qū)別就大了。國(guó)際足聯(lián)得出的整體射門(mén)率（我將用這個(gè)詞來(lái)表示射正的球的比例，不管最終是進(jìn)還是沒(méi)進(jìn)）是33％，ESPN的則是 26％。（很有可能國(guó)際足聯(lián)沒(méi)有將被撲救的球算在其中）。類似的，2006年世界杯，國(guó)際足聯(lián)統(tǒng)計(jì)出來(lái)的射門(mén)率是48％，而ESPN則是44％。不過(guò)在 2002年，雙方的數(shù)據(jù)倒是幾乎一致。兩大數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源都表示，與上屆相比，本屆世界杯的射門(mén)率大幅下跌。2006年，這一數(shù)字是44％。

• A statistical fluke. 低概率的意外。

As the Montreal Canadians demonstrated during their run deep into the NHL playoffs, and the Capitals did with their early exit, some teams shoot at surprisingly high percentages, and such performances tend not to be sustainable. Perhaps players have been unlucky and will gain their shooting touch in the last three quarters of the tournament.

就像蒙特利爾加拿大人爆冷闖進(jìn)冰球大聯(lián)盟季后賽（NHL），而華盛頓首都隊(duì)（Capitals）卻早早被淘汰出局一樣，有些球隊(duì)的射門(mén)率出人意料地高，不過(guò)這樣的表現(xiàn)并不能穩(wěn)定地保持下去?；蛟S，球員們只是現(xiàn)在還不太走運(yùn)，在接下來(lái)的四分之三程比賽中他們將享受進(jìn)球得分的樂(lè)趣。

• Parity and tactics. 球隊(duì)兵力對(duì)峙和戰(zhàn)術(shù)打法。

Every team has played effective defense at times. The tournament's weakest teams seem to have taken to heart the lesson of Greece, the stunning 2004 champions of Europe, who jammed the box with defenders and stymied high-powered offenses. Just two teams have yielded more than two goals in the first 17 games of the tournament, and both reached that ignominious mark only after losing a player to a red card. One sign that players indeed have been frustrated and pushed to take shots far from the goal: FIFA has recorded 241 shots from outside the penalty area through the first 17 games, compared to 186 shots inside the penalty area. Of the closer shots, 40% were on goal, compared to 27% on the farther shots (the rest were blocked or wide). Equivalent stats for prior tournaments aren't readily available, though, so it's impossible to say if this represents a trend toward shooting from farther away.

每只球隊(duì)時(shí)不時(shí)地都能做到有效防守。世界杯上實(shí)力最弱的球隊(duì)似乎將希臘隊(duì)2004年贏得歐洲杯時(shí)的排兵布陣?yán)斡浽谛?。?dāng)時(shí)，希臘隊(duì)堅(jiān)持防守反擊的打法，后防線上重兵把守，將對(duì)手的強(qiáng)勢(shì)進(jìn)攻一一擊退。本屆世界杯前17場(chǎng)比賽中，只有兩只球隊(duì)（德國(guó)和烏拉圭）進(jìn)球數(shù)超過(guò)兩個(gè)，而且兩隊(duì)都是在對(duì)手有一名球員被紅牌罰下場(chǎng)的情況下取得這一戰(zhàn)績(jī)的。有跡象表明，在對(duì)手固若金湯的防線面前，球員們被迫不得已在遠(yuǎn)離門(mén)框范圍的區(qū)域里試圖射門(mén)。根據(jù)國(guó)際足聯(lián)的統(tǒng)計(jì)，前17場(chǎng)比賽中，有241個(gè)射門(mén)是從禁區(qū)之外的地方完成的，而在禁區(qū)里的數(shù)字是186。在近距離的射門(mén)中有40％射正，而較遠(yuǎn)距離射門(mén)的射正率則為27％（剩下的要不是被撲救，要不就是踢出邊線）。不過(guò)因?yàn)槠渌闱蛸愂略谶@方面的數(shù)據(jù)目前尚不得知，所以還不能就此得出結(jié)論說(shuō)這代表了一種較遠(yuǎn)距離射門(mén)的趨勢(shì)。