金融英語第二十三講 亞洲金融危機 （一）
Lesson 23 金融世界 第二十三講 亞洲金融危機 （一）
這一講我們要跟您談談二十世紀末發(fā)生在亞洲的金融危機。
金融世界 第二十三講
亞洲金融危機 （一）
這一講我們要跟您談談二十世紀末發(fā)生在亞洲的金融危機。
澳洲廣播電臺金融節(jié)目主持人巴里克拉克首先介紹了這場亞洲金融風暴是如何爆發(fā)的。他在談話中使用了這樣一些詞匯：
1 overseas creditors 海外債權人
2 international capital flows 國際資本流動
3 short-term capital 短期資本
4 herd behavior 群體恐慌行為
巴里克拉克說：
The crisis became evident in July, 1997. Overseas creditors began withdrawing short-term capital from the region, placing intense pressure on the exchange rates for the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and South Korea.
These five countries had been heavily dependent on international capital flows. In 1996, there was an inflow of $US 93 billion. But a year later the flow was reversed. In 1997 there was an outflow of $12 billion.
As capital was withdrawn from the region and the exchange rates of the five countries depreciated, or fell, panic set in amongst foreign creditors.
The result was a deepening spiral. As capital was withdrawn, the exchange rate depreciated, leading to more capital outflows.
Economists call these panics 'herd behaviour'; where the creditors in a market all rush, or stampede, for the exit, trying to get out first.
Usually, their behaviour is not based on the real underlying economic conditions in the market (the fundamentals), but rather on the behaviour and expected behaviour of other creditors.
接下來我們把巴里克拉克的這段談話及中文翻譯分段聽一遍：（英文略）
這場危機在一九九七年七月變得顯而易見。海外債權人開始從這一地區(qū)撤出短期資本，使泰國、印尼、馬來西亞、菲律賓和韓國這五國貨幣的兌換率受到極大壓力。
這五國都嚴重依賴國際資本的注入。一九九六年，流入這些國家的資本是九百三十億美元，但一年之后資本的流向逆轉。一九九七年時有一百二十億美元的資本流出。
隨著資本撤出這一地區(qū)以及五國的貨幣匯率下調或跌落，外國債權人開始感到恐慌。
其結果是惡性循環(huán)。隨著資本的撤出，匯率下跌，導致更多的資本流出。
經濟學家稱這種恐慌是群體恐慌行為，就是市場上的債權人全都蜂擁或驚慌地要搶先退出市場。
通常他們不是根據市場的基本經濟條件（根本準則）來采取行動，而是根據其他債權人的行為或是預計的行為來采取行。
接下來我們把巴里克拉克的這段談話原文再完整聽一遍。（略）
二十世紀末亞洲的這場金融風暴爆發(fā)之迅速，破壞之嚴重，令經濟學家目瞪口呆。澳洲廣播電臺金融節(jié)目主持人巴里克拉克接下來分析了這場金融風暴的部分起因：
If financial panics are not new, the Asian crisis came as a complete surprise to virtually all commentators. After all, the five Asian countries had shown remarkable growth in output, employment, productivity and exports over the past 20 years.
Warning signs became apparent from 1996, as these countries faced increased competition from China and Mexico in markets for manufacturing exports. Growth rates began to slow. But the real problem lay in their reliance on short-term capital flows from overseas. This capital can be moved quite quickly in and out of an economy. Economists call such flows 'indirect foreign investment' to distinguish them from longer term or 'direct foreign investment'.
While the five countries had deregulated their financial systems, increasing the number of banks and the ease of foreign borrowing, there was inadequate regulation and supervision of financial institutions. Indeed, in some cases, banks were allowed to break regulations on lending. The degree of risk in borrowing was seriously underestimated. Their exchange rates were also mildly overvalued as they targeted the US dollar.
These policy errors contributed to produce a fragile financial system - one which was vulnerable to a rapid reversal of capital flows. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the 1997 panic cannot be explained by the extent of the policy errors. Foreign creditors had a superficial understanding of the long-term prospects of the region, which meant that their behaviour was subject to wild swings.
下面我們分段聽一遍巴里克拉克的談話和中文翻譯：（英文略）
如果說金融恐慌并不新奇的話，這場亞洲金融危機卻大大出乎所有專家學者的意外。這五個亞洲國家過去二十年中畢竟在產量、就業(yè)、生產力和出口方面表現(xiàn)出了引人注目的增長。
從一九九六年開始，隨著這些國家在制造業(yè)出口市場上面臨著來自中國和墨西哥不斷增加的競爭，危險信號變得清晰可見，增長速度放緩。但是真正的麻煩在于這些國家對于海外短期資本的依賴。這種資本能夠非常迅速地流入或流出一個國家。經濟學家稱這種資本是“間接外國投資”，以區(qū)別于長期的或“直接外國投資”。
這五個國家解除了對金融系統(tǒng)的管制，增加了銀行的數(shù)目，放松了國際借貸，但同時卻缺乏對金融機構恰當?shù)墓芾砗捅O(jiān)督。實際上，它們有時允許銀行違反規(guī)定借出貸款。借貸中的風險被嚴重低估。這些國家的貨幣與美元實行固定匯率也使它們的匯率梢許偏高。
這些政策上的錯誤成為形成一個脆弱的金融體系的因素。這一體系難以防范資本流向的迅速逆轉。然而一九九七年亞洲金融恐慌的嚴重性卻無法用這些政策性錯誤的程度來加以解釋。外國債權人對這一地區(qū)的長期前景只有很膚淺的認識，這意味著他們的行為會隨著市場盲目的動蕩而變化。
接下來我們把巴里克拉克的這段談話再連起來聽一遍。（略）
在這一講的最后，我們把巴里克拉克有關亞洲金融危機的第一段談話再聽一遍。（略）
各位朋友，這一講由澳洲廣播電臺中文部為您制作的金融世界節(jié)目到這里就結束了。
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