GRE作文范文 Issue-30

"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."

嘉文博譯Sample Essay

It is a rare situation where one is faced with a dilemma without the benefit of having at least some information about that particular state of affairs. Seldom does something pop up out of nowhere for which there is absolutely no data available. However, when a situation occurs where there is no information immediately available, hypothesizing about a theoretical explanation for that set of circumstances can certainly lay the groundwork for an understanding of what has happened.

To theorize means to form a theory about something or to speculate about a set of circumstances. Merriam Webster's dictionary defines a theory in part as "a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation; [or] an unproved assumption." People automatically make assumptions about a situation based on prior experience with a set of circumstances or a particular set of facts. It is the normal decision and thought-making process that human beings go through in trying to decipher the world around them. If an individual were not allowed to make an assumption about a situation, the individual would be lacking an essential human element in the process of interpreting that particular situation. Theorizing about a possible explanation can eliminate implausible solutions as well as generate a range of possibilities for what has occurred.

Additionally, the human ability to think in a logical manner to rationally explain an event or series of events is one important characteristic that separates us from animals. This ability stems from being not only able to remember past facts and events, but to actually apply those memories to future situations. The ability to learn from the past is a fundamental part of building knowledge, which allows us to advance as a civilization. If one accepts the idea that it is a grave mistake to hypothesize in cases where there is a lack of data, one of the most essential tools of learning would be taken away from us.

For example, consider the situation where a human skeleton is found with absolutely no clues as to what happened to this particular person. If the investigative team is not allowed to hypothesize or make an assumption about the circumstances under which the person died, they could not make a decision on how to even begin their investigation. Should they proceed with the investigation as a homicide or a death of natural causes? With no data available, the investigators must theorize as to a cause of death and thus proceed with the inquiry on that basis alone. Without a hypothesis, there is no guide or "roadmap" as to how to proceed, and the investigators work would be greatly hampered.

As another example, consider the situation faced in the beginning by scientists researching cancer. At first, scientists and doctors knew only that people were dying slowly from some cause, but the cause itself was unknown. Researchers were faced with almost no data other than the fact that people were dying. Hypothesizing about the situation led doctors to look inside the body for the cause. Further hypotheses have led to the state of cancer research today, and obviously, much work remains to be done as no cure has been found as yet. It may be likely that a cure for some types of cancer may come from pure speculation based on a theory rather than on any hard evidence or data.

It goes without saying that it is a rare situation where there is no data available to form a hypothesis on which to proceed. But even in situations where there is only a small amount of data available, a hypothesis can be an invaluable director toward the truth.

(606 words)

參考譯文

在尚未掌握數(shù)據(jù)資料的情況下就進行理論闡述，這是一種極為嚴重的錯誤

人們面對某一困境，但對這一事態(tài)沒能掌握最起碼的信息線索，這一情境是極為罕見的。某事無緣無故地冒出來且無根可尋，沒有一點信息線索，這種事情一般是很少存在的。但是，當出現(xiàn)一個事態(tài)且沒有直接的信息時，為那一系列情狀假設(shè)某種理論上的解釋無疑會為我們了解所發(fā)生的事情的真相打下基礎(chǔ)。 進行理論說明，指的是對某事物形成一個理論或?qū)σ幌盗惺聦嵾M行理論判斷。Merriam Webster詞典對"理論"的定義是這樣的："為了論證或研究所做的假說;(或)尚未證實的假設(shè)。"人們自然地根據(jù)以前對一系列情況或事實的經(jīng)驗對一種情況進行假設(shè)。人們在試圖破解他們周圍的世界時肯定要經(jīng)過正常的判斷和思想過程。倘若我們不允許對某一事態(tài)做一假設(shè)，那么我們在解釋那一事態(tài)的過程中就會缺少最基本的人類因素。對一個可能的解釋做假設(shè)，不但可以消除不合情理的解釋，還會為所發(fā)生的事情導(dǎo)出一系列的可能性。

此外，人類用邏輯的方法進行思考來合理地解釋一個事件或一系列事件的能力，是區(qū)分人類與動物的重要特征。這種能力源自人類不僅能夠記憶過去的事實和事件，而且還能把那些記憶的東西應(yīng)用于未來的情況。從過去學(xué)到有用東西的能力，是構(gòu)建知識的基本因素，而構(gòu)建知識使得我們能夠作為文明人取得進步。如果我們認為在缺少信息資料時進行理論假設(shè)是一個極為嚴重的錯誤，那么我們最基本的學(xué)習(xí)方法之一就會被剝奪。

例如，設(shè)想發(fā)現(xiàn)了一具人的骨骼，但沒有任何線索表明該人發(fā)生了什么。如果調(diào)查小組不被允許假定或假設(shè)該人死時的情景，那么他們就不可能做出決定如何開始他們的調(diào)查。他們是從兇殺還是從自然死亡著手調(diào)查呢?盡管沒有信息線索可尋，調(diào)查人員必須假設(shè)一個死因，在此基礎(chǔ)上展開調(diào)查。如果沒有假設(shè)，那就沒有進行調(diào)查的導(dǎo)向或"路線圖"，因而調(diào)查人員的工作也必將嚴重受阻。

再例，設(shè)想研究癌癥的科學(xué)家在最初時所面對的境況。首先，科學(xué)家和醫(yī)生僅僅知道這人正因為某種原因慢慢死去，但真正原因是什么卻一無所知。研究人員除了知道那人正在死去之外幾乎沒有任何信息線索。對原因的假設(shè)使醫(yī)生檢查病人身體的內(nèi)臟以尋找原因。進一步的假設(shè)已導(dǎo)致了今天的癌癥研究，而且顯然，因為還沒有找到治療的方法，所以今后還需要做很多工作。很有可能，一種治療某些癌癥的方法出自以某種理論為根據(jù)的假設(shè)，而不是出自確鑿的證據(jù)或事實。

不言自明，沒有任何信息線索可讓我們形成一個假設(shè)并由此著手工作，這種情況是很少見的。但是，即使在只有極少量信息線索的情況下，一個假設(shè)可能就是通往真理的寶貴向?qū)А?/p>