美國之音2007標(biāo)準(zhǔn)下半年ATen Years Later, Asian Economies Remember, Lea

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Ten Years Later, Asian Economies Remember ,Learn Lessons of

By Heda Bayron
Hong Kong
03 July 2007

Along with much of the rest of Asia, in 1997, Indonesia suddenly spiraled into recession. Companies closed down, and workers lost their jobs.

Raden Pardede remembers those days. He is the deputy president director of the Indonesian government agency responsible for selling the assets of those bankrupt companies. "That's basically one of the biggest crises in our lifetime, because after that, I think in 1998, our economy really significantly collapsed, which in terms of GDP growth we had a 13.5 percent negative growth. So the world collapsed. After that, of course, most of the conglomerates collapsed, right? That's why we had significant unemployment soon after 1998. The middle and lower income groups really suffered."

The Asian financial crisis was almost unthinkable at the time. Asian economies were soaring. Companies were expanding aggressively, stock markets skyrocketing, fueled by foreign capital.

But the bubble burst, first in Thailand, where companies had overloaded on foreign debt. Worried investors began selling the Thai baht and it rapidly lost value against the dollar.

Panic spread. The Indonesian rupiah, the South Korean won, the Malaysian ringgit and other currencies sank. Stock markets plunged and interest rates soared.

Governments used up foreign exchange reserves to stop the currency depreciation, lent money to cash-strapped companies and bought shares in stock markets. But the crisis continued and millions were jobless.

Indonesia and South Korea asked the International Monetary Fund to bail them out.

Park Yung-chul, an economist at Seoul National University, says the bailout was a blow to South Korea. "People's first reaction at that time was shame. We were the 11th largest economy in the world. Big South Korean companies were investing everywhere -- in England, U.S., Europe."

Today, not only has Asia recovered from the crisis, it has learned the lessons of 1997.

"We have reconstructed much of the South Korean economy and the exchange rate is being properly valuated rather than undervalued and we possess a lot of foreign exchange reserve, which makes it less possible for foreign speculators to confuse the market," says Yung-Chul.

Raden Pardede says, if another crisis comes, Indonesia is in a much stronger position than in 1997. "We may see some crisis coming. We don't know exactly when, any trigger from one country to another country, contagion is of course inevitable in this globalization era. But I think the magnitude will not be the same as what we have in 1997."

Asian governments continue to take measures to strengthen their economies and, they hope, to prevent another crisis.

亞洲經(jīng)濟吸取教訓(xùn)，十年后全面復(fù)蘇

和亞洲其他地區(qū)一樣，1997年印度尼西亞經(jīng)濟突然急速下滑。公司倒閉，工人下崗。

Raden Pardede記得那段日子。他是印尼政府機構(gòu)的副主任，負責(zé)出售破產(chǎn)公司的資產(chǎn)。“這次基本上是我們所經(jīng)歷的最大的危機之一，因為在這之后，我認為在1998年，我們的經(jīng)濟真的衰退了，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值呈現(xiàn)13.5%的負增長。全世界經(jīng)濟都衰退了。之后，當(dāng)然，大部分聯(lián)合企業(yè)垮掉了。那就是為什么1998年之后嚴重失業(yè)的原因。中低收入人群真的遭受了很多。

亞洲金融危機在那時簡直是不可想象的。亞洲經(jīng)濟高速增長，公司猛烈擴張，受外國資本影響股票市場價格飛漲。

泡沫經(jīng)濟首先在泰國爆發(fā)，公司承受了外債。令人擔(dān)憂的投資者開始出售泰銖，很快出現(xiàn)了貨幣貶值。

恐慌在蔓延。印尼的盧比，南韓的圓，馬來西亞的林吉特和其他國家的貨幣都下跌。股票市場價格狂跌，利率劇增。

政府為了停止貨幣貶值用完了外匯儲備，把錢借給身無分文的公司并購買一些股票。但危機仍在延續(xù)，上百萬人失業(yè)。

印尼和南韓邀請國際貨幣基金會把他們從危機中解救出來。

漢城大學(xué)的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家Park Yung-chul說救援行動對南韓來說是打擊。那時候人們的首先反映是羞恥。我們在世界上是第11大經(jīng)濟國家。南韓的大公司在世界各處投資，如英國，美國，歐洲。

今天，亞洲不僅從危機中恢復(fù)，也得到了97年經(jīng)濟危機的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)。

“我們已經(jīng)重建了南韓經(jīng)濟，匯率在適當(dāng)增值而不是貶值，我們擁有了很多外匯儲備，這樣不會使外國投機者對市場感到困惑，”Yung-Chul說道。

Raden Pardede 說，如果再出現(xiàn)危機，印尼會比1997年處于強勢。我們可能會關(guān)注危機的來臨，確切地講不知道是什么時候，從一個國家向另一個國家引發(fā)時，在這樣一個全球化時代蔓延當(dāng)然是不可避免的。但我認為危機的大小和1997年不同。

亞洲政府繼續(xù)采取措施加強經(jīng)濟，他們希望阻止危機的再發(fā)生。