奧巴馬可能請中國介入阿富汗

在美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)考慮是否向阿富汗增兵的最終決定之際，他下周對北京的訪問，將帶來一個敦促中國在這場沖突中扮演更大角色的機會。

As Barack Obama, US president, considers a final decision on whether to send more troops to Afghanistan, his visit to Beijing next week will be a chance to press China to become more involved in the conflict.

據(jù)了解美中雙方討論的外交人士、官員和學(xué)者介紹，自2009年初以來，奧巴馬政府一直在鼓勵北京方面在更大程度上介入阿富汗事務(wù)，具體選擇包括增加人道援助，以及派遣軍警，協(xié)助訓(xùn)練阿富汗警察隊伍。北京方面已經(jīng)在中國國內(nèi)培訓(xùn)阿富汗武裝部隊，以對付毒品貿(mào)易。

Since the start of 2009, the Obama administration has encouraged Beijing to become more engaged in Afghanistan, according to diplomats, officials and academics briefed on the discussions, with options such as greater humanitarian assistance and sending military police to help train the Afghan police force. Beijing already trains Afghan forces in China to tackle the drugs trade.

美方加大游說力度之際，北京方面已日漸意識到，如果美國撤離，塔利班卷土重來，中國的利益將受到損害。

The increased US lobbying comes at a time of growing realisation in Beijing that its interests would be damaged by a US withdrawal and Taliban victory.

美國的阿富汗和巴基斯坦問題特使理查德·霍爾布魯克(Richard Holbrooke)今年4月曾訪問北京舉行商談，此后雙方進行了一系列接觸?；魻柌剪斂说囊恍┲砣藛T昨日已到北京，為奧巴馬周日抵達做準備。在許多全球問題上希望中國作為合作伙伴的奧巴馬政府，曾希望在華盛頓為中國官員安排一次“跨部門”會議，由參與阿富汗和巴基斯坦事務(wù)的不同美國政府部門作介紹。不過，這樣的會議尚未舉辦。美方還希望北京方面利用對巴基斯坦的影響力，向共同的戰(zhàn)略目標努力。

Richard Holbrooke, the US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, visited Beijing in April for talks and there have been a string of contacts since then. Some of Mr Holbrooke's aides were in Beijing yesterday, ahead of Mr Obama's arrival on Sunday. The Obama administration, which wants China to be a partner on many global issues, had hoped to arrange an “inter-agency” meeting for Chinese officials in Washington for briefings by the different US government departments involved in Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, this has yet to take place. The US also hopes Beijing will use its influence with Pakistan towards shared strategic goals.

“這是一個黃金機會，讓中國被西方視為站在同一立場，”美國喬治·華盛頓大學(xué)(George Washington University)的中國專家沈大偉(David Shambaugh)表示。他補充說，中國應(yīng)當(dāng)既考慮提供民事援助（如建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施），也考慮提供警察培訓(xùn)。“這將是對中國是否會成為真正伙伴的一個檢驗。”

“This is a golden opportunity for China to be seen by the west to be on the same side,” said David Shambaugh, a China expert at George Washington University, who added that China should consider both civilian assistance, such as building infrastructure, and police training. “It is a test case of whether China will become a real partner.”

不過他承認，中國存在高度的阻力與懷疑，尤其是在中國軍方。2001年美軍開始在阿富汗作戰(zhàn)的那一天，他恰好在中國國防大學(xué)訪問，那里的一名中國將軍向他發(fā)出警告：“你們將永遠無法脫身。”

However, he acknowledged the high levels of resistance and scepticism, especially among the Chinese military. On a visit to China's National Defence University in 2001 on the day US military operations began in Afghanistan, a general there warned him: “You will never get out.”

雖然中國意識到美國撤離將損害自己在阿富汗的利益，但它仍不愿意扮演積極的角色。

Although China recognises the damage a US withdrawal would do to its interests there, it is reluctant to play an active role.

“美國有人期望中國將向阿富汗派遣武裝警察，這是中國所不能承受的，”中國人民大學(xué)國際關(guān)系教授金燦榮表示。“中國有可能提供更多資金，但要派遣武裝人員？絕無可能。”

“The expectations in the US that China will send armed police to Afghanistan, that is too much for China,” says Jin Canrong, professor of international relations at Renmin University of China. “It is possible China will send more money, but armed men? No way.”