若哥本哈根峰會無果 中國損失巨大

如果哥本哈根氣候變化峰會無法提出一項綜合性的有關(guān)利用綠色能源的協(xié)議，可能會對中國產(chǎn)生諸多重大影響，其中包括對太陽能和碳捕獲這兩個擁有巨大增長潛力的技術(shù)領(lǐng)域的融資。

China has lots at stake if Copenhagen climate change talks don't come up with a comprehensive green energy package, including financing for two potentially huge growth areas--solar power and carbon capture.

中國近期宣布了基于碳強度的減排目標，雖然并沒有如一些國家所要求的那樣制定具有約束力的溫室氣體排放上限，但這表明中國準備在本周開始的氣候峰會上扮演關(guān)鍵角色。

Its recent announcement on cutting carbon intensity, while falling short of binding greenhouse gas emissions caps demanded by some countries, shows China is ready to play a central role in the climate summit that started this week.

若哥本哈根峰會達成協(xié)議，可能會給中國帶來好處：中國將從發(fā)達國家獲得更多的資金援助和技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓。作為太陽能和風電設(shè)備的出口大國，中國還將獲得更多的產(chǎn)品需求。讓中國政府最為擔心的則是終止《京都議定書》有關(guān)在發(fā)展中國家的減排可以帶來可交易的碳排放額度的條款；中國一直是相關(guān)機制的最大受益者，其獲得的碳排放額度占總量的59%。

A deal in Copenhagen could bring the country benefits: more funding and technology transfers from developed nations, and as an exporter of solar-power and wind-power equipment, increased demand for its products. What China dreads most is the end of Kyoto provisions that grant tradable credits for reducing emissions; China has been the top receiver for the credits in terms of registered projects with the United Nations, getting 59% of the total.

《京都議定書》的后續(xù)協(xié)議可能會在以下幾個方面給中國帶來更多的現(xiàn)金：清潔發(fā)展機制(CDM)所產(chǎn)生的碳排放額度繼續(xù)帶來資金流入，獲得所需的資金建成全球第四大風力發(fā)電能力，以及從外國公司手中奪回國內(nèi)風力發(fā)電市場的控制權(quán)。

A successor to Kyoto could unlock more cash for China, in the form of a renewed inflow of carbon credits generated by the Clean Development Mechanism, money that helped it build the world's fourth largest wind power capacity and also wrest control of the domestic wind power market from foreign companies.

中國資源綜合利用協(xié)會可再生能源專業(yè)委員會的CDM項目主任王衛(wèi)權(quán)說，如果哥本哈根峰會能使得2012年之后清潔發(fā)展機制的前景更加明了，取得積極的成果，那么就可能會提振對中國清潔能源項目的投資興趣。

'If the outlook for CDM after 2012 can get clearer during the Copenhagen conference and it turns out to be positive, then investment interest in China's clean energy projects would get a boost,' said Wang Weiquan, CDM project director with the China Renewable Energy Industries Association.

IHS集團旗下劍橋能源咨詢公司(IHS CERA)的研究顯示，截至去年年底，中國公司已經(jīng)在中國風力發(fā)電設(shè)備市場上占據(jù)了67%的份額，而Vestas Wind Systems、Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia和通用電氣(General Electric)等外國競爭對手在中國市場的總份額已經(jīng)從2004年的75%銳減至20%。

By the end of last year, Chinese companies had grabbed a 67% share of China's wind power equipment market, squeezing Vestas Wind Systems AS, Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia SA and General Electric Co., whose combined China market share slumped to 20%, from 75% in 2004, according to research by IHS CERA.

林娜是歐盟提供資金支持的歐盟-中國清潔發(fā)展機制促進項目(EU-China CDM Facilitation Project)的項目經(jīng)理。她認為，風力發(fā)電和中國已擁有成熟技術(shù)的水力發(fā)電不太可能在2012年之后獲得碳排放額度。

Lin Na, a manager with the European Commission-funded EU-China CDM Facilitation Project, thinks wind and hydropower, where China has now mature technologies, are unlikely to secure carbon credits in a post-2012 scenario.

但林娜說，碳捕獲及封存（CCS）和太陽能等領(lǐng)域可能會從富裕國家獲得資金。

But sectors like carbon capture and sequestration and solar power have the potential to receive funding from rich nations, Lin said.

看起來即便不能通過碳排放額度獲得幫助，中國也有望贏得國際清潔煤炭技術(shù)合約。

China looks well placed to capture international clean coal technology contracts, even without help from carbon credits.