隨著氣候變化，納稅人將對農(nóng)民承擔(dān)更多的補貼

隨著氣候變化，納稅人將對農(nóng)民承擔(dān)更多的補貼

Robert Henry is driving along the top of a Mississippi River levee, giving me a tour of land where he'd love to be planting soybeans right now. We're just east of New Madrid, Mo.

羅伯特·亨利正沿著密西西比河的堤頂開車，帶我參觀他現(xiàn)在想種植大豆的土地。我們就在密蘇里州新馬德里東部。

From the window of Henry's truck, I see what looks like a swamp, with trees standing in water. Then we make a turn, and suddenly, as far as I can see, there's water. It covers a wide flood plain between the main river channel and the levee. This is where Henry normally grows his crops.

從亨利卡車的車窗上，我看到了一片沼澤，樹立在水中。然后我們轉(zhuǎn)了個彎，突然，在我所能看到的地方，有水了。它覆蓋了主河道和堤壩之間的一片寬闊的漫灘。亨利通常在這里種莊稼。

"Thousands and thousands of acres," Henry says. "Some of the best land in the world."

“成千上萬英畝，”亨利說。“世界上最好的土地之一。”

Henry won't grow anything here this year. He even has a tractor and harvesting equipment stranded on an island out in the middle of the river.

亨利今年不會在這里種任何東西。他甚至有一臺拖拉機和收割設(shè)備被困在河中央的一個小島上。

But here's the good news: He'll get a check anyway — a payout from his crop insurance. It won't be as much money as he'd have gotten from a soybean crop, but it'll help him get by, "which is better than going under, you know?" he says.

但好消息是：不管怎樣，他都會得到一張支票——一筆從農(nóng)作物保險中得到的賠償。雖然沒有種大豆賺的錢多，但這會幫助他渡過難關(guān)，“你知道嗎，這比破產(chǎn)要好?”他說。

Most farmers who grow big commodity crops like corn, soybeans and wheat buy crop insurance. It's a good deal for them; the federal government actually covers about 60 percent of the cost of the premiums.

大多數(shù)種植玉米、大豆和小麥等大宗商品作物的農(nóng)民都會購買作物保險。這對他們來說是一筆好交易;聯(lián)邦政府實際上承擔(dān)了60%的保險費。

In fact, the federal government spends, on average, about $8 billion a year subsidizing crop insurance for farmers.

事實上，聯(lián)邦政府平均每年花費大約80億美元來補貼農(nóng)民的農(nóng)作物保險。

That number could be a lot bigger this year. Officials with the U.S. Department of Agriculture are expecting up to $1 billion to farmers in Henry's situation. At the end of the season, more claims will arrive from farmers who planted seeds but ended up with poor harvests.

今年這個數(shù)字可能會更大。美國農(nóng)業(yè)部官員預(yù)計將向亨利這種情況下的農(nóng)民提供高達(dá)10億美元的援助。在季末，那些播種但最終收獲不佳的農(nóng)民將會有更多的賠償。

Some people fear that this year's flooding is a taste of the future. Henry is hoping that it's not. "It could be global warming, but I don't think so," he says. "I think we're in a cycle of wet, and we'll cycle out of it and we'll be dry again."

一些人擔(dān)心今年的洪水是未來的一個預(yù)兆。亨利希望它不是。“可能是全球變暖，但我不這么認(rèn)為，”他說。“我認(rèn)為我們正處于一個潮濕的循環(huán)中，我們將會循環(huán)出去，我們將再次變干。”

There are billions of dollars riding on this. Scientists, of course, say climate change is happening, although the precise effects — for example, on rainfall in the Midwest — are harder to predict.

數(shù)十億美元都押在這上面。當(dāng)然，科學(xué)家們說氣候變化正在發(fā)生，盡管很難預(yù)測精確的影響，例如對中西部降雨量的影響。

A team of researchers at the USDA just released a study of how the changing climate could affect those crop insurance payouts.

美國農(nóng)業(yè)部的一組研究人員剛剛發(fā)布了一項關(guān)于氣候變化如何影響農(nóng)作物保險支出的研究。

"We used five different climate models, some of which are more optimistic and some more pessimistic in terms of warming and precipitation," says economist Andrew Crane-Droesch, who led the research.

領(lǐng)導(dǎo)這項研究的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家安德魯·克蘭-德羅施說:“我們使用了五種不同的氣候模型，在氣候變暖和降水方面，有些模型比較樂觀，有些則比較悲觀。”

Generally, the models show a future, 40 to 80 years from now, in which farmers across the U.S. will bring in smaller harvests of the country's biggest crops — corn and soybeans. The drop in crop yields is projected to be particularly large in non-irrigated land across the South.

總的來說，這些模型顯示了未來40到80年的情況，屆時美國各地的農(nóng)民將減少玉米和大豆這兩種美國最大的農(nóng)作物的收成。預(yù)計整個南部沒有灌溉的土地的作物產(chǎn)量下降尤其嚴(yán)重。

This sounds bad, and it probably is for anyone who needs corn or soybeans. But for farmers, it may not be. Smaller harvests mean higher prices. "To the degree that climate change lowers production, it will increase the value [of the harvest], because of basic supply and demand," says Crane-Droesch.

這聽起來很糟糕，可能對任何需要玉米或大豆的人來說都是如此。但對于農(nóng)民來說，情況可能并非如此。收成減少意味著價格上漲。克拉內(nèi)·道馳說:“就氣候變化降低產(chǎn)量的程度而言，由于基本的供給和需求，它將增加(收成的)價值。”