下周，這個(gè)人將決定英國(guó)數(shù)百萬(wàn)工作崗位的命運(yùn)

下周，這個(gè)人將決定英國(guó)數(shù)百萬(wàn)工作崗位的命運(yùn)

Rishi Sunak faces one of the toughest decisions of his four months as Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, with the livelihoods of millions dependent on his next move.

作為英國(guó)財(cái)政大臣，里希•蘇納克面臨著四個(gè)月來(lái)最艱難的決定之一，數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的生計(jì)取決于他的下一步行動(dòng)。

After taking the unprecedented decision to pay 80% of the wages of more than 8 million workers as the coronavirus swept through the U.K. in March, he has promised to set out next week how he will start to scale back the program.

在3月份冠狀病毒席卷英國(guó)的情況下，在史無(wú)前例的決定支付超過(guò)800萬(wàn)名工人的80%的工資之后，他承諾下周將開(kāi)始著手縮減該計(jì)劃的規(guī)模。

It will be the biggest test of how hard the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker will find it to turn off the spending spigot after committing unprecedented sums to prop up the U.K. economy, burnishing his own political reputation.

這將是對(duì)這位高盛集團(tuán)前銀行家關(guān)閉支出水龍頭難度的最大考驗(yàn)。此前，他為提振英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)投入了前所未有的資金，提升了自己的政治聲譽(yù)。

Now he has to balance the strain his policies are putting on the public finances -- the furlough program alone could cost as much as 84 billion pounds ($102 billion) -- with the risk that if he ends them too soon, he could trigger a wave of mass unemployment unseen since the 1930s.

現(xiàn)在，他必須平衡自己的政策給公共財(cái)政帶來(lái)的壓力，光是休假計(jì)劃就可能耗資高達(dá)840億英鎊(1020億美元)，如果他過(guò)早結(jié)束這些計(jì)劃，他可能引發(fā)自上世紀(jì)30年代以來(lái)從未出現(xiàn)過(guò)的大規(guī)模失業(yè)潮。

“Given the huge effort and cost that went into putting the furlough system in place, it’s got to be unwound sensitively, or we risk a significant downside,” said Adam Marshall, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce.

英國(guó)商會(huì)總干事亞當(dāng)•馬歇爾表示:“考慮到實(shí)施休假制度所付出的巨大努力和成本，我們必須謹(jǐn)慎地解除休假制度，否則我們可能面臨重大損失。”

Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility expect the unemployment to jump to about 10% from 3.9% now. That implies roughly 3.4 million people will soon be out of work, a figure not seen since the Great Depression.

英格蘭銀行和預(yù)算責(zé)任辦公室都預(yù)計(jì)失業(yè)率將從現(xiàn)在的3.9%上升到10%左右。這意味著大約340萬(wàn)人將很快失去工作，這是自大蕭條以來(lái)從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的數(shù)字。

Sunak, 40, has himself admitted he can’t save every job and has warned the country faces a severe recession on a scale “the likes of which we haven’t seen.”

40歲的蘇納克自己也承認(rèn)，他無(wú)法保住每一份工作，并警告說(shuō)，英國(guó)正面臨嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，其嚴(yán)重程度是“我們從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的”。

So far, the Chancellor’s focus has been on saving jobs by splashing unprecedented levels of cash. By guaranteeing workers up to 2,500 pounds of income each month, he not only sought to protect the link between people and their jobs, but also to protect their pattern of consumption in the hope that their spending, and thus the wider economy, bounces back quickly after a brief disruption.

到目前為止，財(cái)政大臣的重點(diǎn)一直是通過(guò)投入前所未有的巨額資金來(lái)保住就業(yè)崗位。通過(guò)保證工人每月最高2500英鎊的收入，他不僅試圖保護(hù)人們與工作之間的聯(lián)系，還希望保護(hù)他們的消費(fèi)模式，希望他們的支出，從而使整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)在短暫中斷后迅速反彈。

But the virus has lingered, and the cost of the government’s extraordinary support is rising fast. On Friday, British mortgage borrowers were told they will be allowed to skip payments for three more months. In all, the U.K.’s crisis measures will cost 123 billion pounds this fiscal year, the OBR says.

但是病毒還在繼續(xù)，而且政府的特別支持成本正在迅速上升。上周五，英國(guó)抵押貸款借款人被告知，他們將被允許在三個(gè)月內(nèi)不還款。總的來(lái)說(shuō)，OBR說(shuō)，英國(guó)政府的危機(jī)應(yīng)對(duì)措施將在本財(cái)年花費(fèi)1,230億英鎊。

While Sunak’s job is eased by the Bank of England’s bond-buying plan and historically low interest rates, the damage to the public finances is mounting.

雖然英國(guó)央行的債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃和歷史上較低的利率緩解了蘇納克的工作，但對(duì)公共財(cái)政的損害正在加劇。

Even if the virus has passed its peak, the lockdown remains largely in place.

即使病毒已經(jīng)過(guò)了它的高峰期，封鎖仍然在很大程度上存在。

On May 12, Sunak extended the jobs program by an extra four months to the end of October, promising that furloughed workers will still receive the same level of support. From August, companies will have to shoulder more of the cost.

5月12日，蘇納克將就業(yè)計(jì)劃延長(zhǎng)了4個(gè)月，至10月底，并承諾休假的工人仍將獲得同等水平的支持。從8月份開(kāi)始，企業(yè)將不得不承擔(dān)更多的成本。

Ministers are exploring making firms pay national insurance and staff pension costs that the government has taken on in addition to the wages, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Other proposals include getting employers to pay 20% of wages with government shouldering 60%, or even asking businesses to meet half the furlough payments. Another possibility is to reduce the government’s contribution through August, September and October.

據(jù)一位知情人士透露，政府部長(zhǎng)們正在考慮讓公司支付除工資外，還承擔(dān)由政府承擔(dān)的國(guó)民保險(xiǎn)和員工養(yǎng)老金費(fèi)用。其他建議包括讓雇主支付工資的20%，而政府承擔(dān)60%，甚至要求企業(yè)支付一半的休假工資。另一種可能性是在8月、9月和10月期間減少政府的貢獻(xiàn)。