貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)拖累華爾街，為何中國股市卻在反彈？

Trade headlines have kept investors on tenterhooks in recent weeks and left stock markets on Wall Street and across much of the world down.

近幾周來，貿(mào)易方面的頭條新聞讓投資人坐立不安，導(dǎo)致華爾街及世界大部分地區(qū)股市下跌。

Not in China though. The benchmark Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes hit their lows for the year on Oct. 18 after China’s government reported that the country’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly a decade during the third quarter. Since then, the two indexes are up 6 percent and 10 percent. By comparison, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 4 percent over that period.

中國則不同。10月18日，在中國政府公布第三季度該國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速為近10年來最低之后，作為基準(zhǔn)的上指和深指跌至今年以來的低谷。此后，兩大指數(shù)分別上漲了6個(gè)和10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。相比之下，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)同期下跌了超過4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

It’s not that investors in China are sanguine about a trade war. It’s that they just began selling much earlier.

這并不是說中國的投資人對(duì)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)持樂觀態(tài)度。只是他們開始更早地出售。

Chinese stocks tumbled more than 25 percent from mid-March through Oct. 18. That pushed valuations on Chinese stocks, by some measures, to their lowest levels in four years.

從3月中旬到10月18日，中國股市暴跌了25%以上。按照一些衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這使得中國股票的估值降至四年以來的最低水平。

The steep declines were partly because China’s economy is more susceptible to a trade war than America’s. China sells a lot more to the United States than it purchases. The Trump administration’s aggressive approach to trade also came at a delicate time for China. The country was trying to tackle its considerable debt problem without slowing its economy further.

在一定程度上，股市大跌是因?yàn)橹袊?jīng)濟(jì)比美國經(jīng)濟(jì)更易受貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的影響。中國對(duì)美國的出口遠(yuǎn)大于進(jìn)口。特朗普政府在貿(mào)易上采取強(qiáng)硬措施也正值中國面臨一個(gè)棘手的時(shí)期。該國正努力不讓經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步放緩的同時(shí)，要應(yīng)對(duì)嚴(yán)重的債務(wù)問題。

A similar shift in sentiment was experienced across emerging-market stocks. Pressured by trade, rising interest rates in the United States and a stronger American dollar, the MSCI Emerging Market Index fell about 20 percent this year to its low in October. That left those stocks looking cheap too.

整個(gè)新興市場的股市也都出現(xiàn)了類似的情緒變動(dòng)。受貿(mào)易、美國利率上升及美元升值的壓力影響，MSCI新興市場指數(shù)今年跌幅約20%，10月份跌至低谷。這也使得這些股票看上去很便宜。

Some of the pressures on emerging markets have eased since then. China and the United States agreed to a 90-day trade truce, the dollar has weakened and investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate increases next year. Over the last six weeks, emerging-market stocks have gained 5 percent.

新興市場所面臨的一部分壓力此后有所緩解。中國和美國達(dá)成了90天的貿(mào)易休戰(zhàn)，美元貶值，投資者越來越相信美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)明年將減緩加息步伐。過去6周，新興市場股市漲了5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

China is hardly past many of the concerns that have pulled down share prices this year. The country is still wrestling with how to ease its onerous debt burden without hurting economic growth, and trade negotiations could fall apart or end without any resolution.

中國幾乎還沒有擺脫拉低今年股價(jià)的許多擔(dān)憂。該國仍在不拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的同時(shí)，努力減輕沉重的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，而且貿(mào)易談判可能會(huì)破裂，或者在沒有達(dá)成任何解決方案的情況下結(jié)束。

Could the recent performance of China’s stock market indicate that the effect of the trade war on share prices is nearing a bottom? After all, sometimes the markets that get beat up the most, are also the first to show that the worst is nearing an end.

中國股市近期的表現(xiàn)是否表明，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)對(duì)股價(jià)的影響幾乎見底?畢竟，有時(shí)候增幅最大的股市，也是第一個(gè)表明見底的股市。

We will have to wait to see if that is the case with trade.

貿(mào)易是否也是如此，我們只能拭目以待。