井噴過(guò)后，中國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資熱潮恐降溫

中國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的喧鬧可能要安靜下來(lái)了。

This year, for the first time, Chinese start-ups raised more cash than their Silicon Valley counterparts, notching up $56 billion in six months. But the excitement may be cooling as the year ends, thanks to tougher regulation and a slowing economy. A shakeout could easily follow.

今年，中國(guó)初創(chuàng)企業(yè)籌集的資金首次超過(guò)了硅谷同行，在6個(gè)月內(nèi)籌集了560億美元。但隨著這一年的結(jié)束，由于監(jiān)管收緊和經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，興奮程度可能正在降溫。接下來(lái)很可能是大震蕩。

It has been a blowout 2018. For the first half of the year, a study released this week by the data provider Preqin and Insead business school suggests that China beat the $42 billion raised in the United States by some way. That’s largely thanks to a huge funding round for Alibaba’s financial affiliate, Ant Financial, as well as some other chunky efforts. But it’s a high-water mark regardless. As is, perhaps, SoftBank’s mooted move to place a team in China to help spend its giant Vision Fund, after years of investing remotely.

2018年已看到了井噴。就今年上半年而言，數(shù)據(jù)提供商普雷欽研究公司(Preqin)和歐洲工商管理學(xué)院(Insead)本周發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)研究顯示，中國(guó)籌集到的資金比美國(guó)籌集的420億美元高出不少。這在很大程度上要?dú)w功于阿里巴巴的金融子公司螞蟻金服的一輪巨額融資，以及其他的大手筆努力。但無(wú)論如何，這都是一個(gè)新高。同樣新的也許是軟銀(SoftBank)的討論，在遠(yuǎn)程投資多年后，軟銀打算安排一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)在中國(guó)幫助投放其龐大的愿景基金(Vision Fund)。

The coming months look less exuberant. The likes of SoftBank and Singapore’s Temasek still have plenty of money to plow into splashy names like the news and video-sharing app ByteDance. Others are less enthusiastic, if figures for China-focused venture funds are anything to go by. In the 11 months to mid-November, around 70 such funds raised just over $15 billion, Preqin estimates; that compares to $40 billion or so raised by 330 funds in all of 2016.

接下來(lái)的幾個(gè)月看起來(lái)不那么樂(lè)觀。軟銀和新加坡淡馬錫(Temasek)等公司仍有大量資金，可投給比如新聞和視頻分享應(yīng)用“字節(jié)跳動(dòng)”等引人注目的品牌。要是單憑以中國(guó)為重點(diǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)基金的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，其他投資者已不那么熱情了。普雷欽研究公司估計(jì)，在截至11月中旬的11個(gè)月里，約有70家這種基金籌集到了略高于150億美元的資金;相比之下，有330家基金在2016年全年籌集了400億美元左右。

All of this suggests increased nerves. The vast majority of Chinese unicorns that listed this year, including the takeaways-to-taxis app Meituan Dianping and the smartphone-maker Xiaomi, are now underwater. Just a small fraction of those $1 billion-plus companies, including video-streaming companies Huya, Bilibili and iQiyi, have risen above their initial public offering prices. Rocky starts like that of the Alibaba-backed parenting site Babytree, which debuted last month at a valuation below its last funding round, won’t help.

所有這些都表明不安情緒在增長(zhǎng)。今年上市的中國(guó)獨(dú)角獸企業(yè)，包括經(jīng)營(yíng)從外賣(mài)到網(wǎng)約車(chē)應(yīng)用的美團(tuán)點(diǎn)評(píng)，以及智能手機(jī)制造商小米在內(nèi)，絕大多數(shù)的股票都已低于發(fā)行價(jià)。在這些市值10多億美元的企業(yè)中，只有包括視頻流媒體公司虎牙直播、嗶哩嗶哩和愛(ài)奇藝在內(nèi)的一小部分的股價(jià)高于發(fā)行價(jià)。阿里巴巴支持的育兒網(wǎng)站寶寶樹(shù)上個(gè)月上市籌集到的資金低于其上市前的最后一輪融資，這對(duì)情況沒(méi)有幫助。

What most of this year’s debutantes have in common is that they bet on local consumers, one way or another. But those shoppers look more fretful. Changes to rules on education, fintech and gaming have only added to the strain. Weaker companies may fall by the wayside.

今年的大多數(shù)新秀都有一個(gè)共同點(diǎn)，那就是它們都以這樣或那樣的方式押注本土消費(fèi)者。但這些消費(fèi)者看起來(lái)更加焦躁不安。教育、金融科技和游戲軟件監(jiān)管規(guī)則的改變只會(huì)加劇這種壓力。實(shí)力較弱的公司可能會(huì)中途退出。