特朗普關(guān)于中國經(jīng)濟的說法符合事實嗎？

At a news conference, the president answered a question about healing national divides by saying, falsely, that he had forced China to back down from a plan to strengthen its manufacturing industry.
在一場新聞發(fā)布會上，特朗普總統(tǒng)回答了一個關(guān)于彌合國家分歧的問題，他說自己迫使中國取消了一項加強制造業(yè)的計劃，但事實并非如此。

WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的說法

If you know, China has come down tremendously. Tremendously. China would have superseded us in two years as an economic power; now, they’re not even close.
如果你知道的話，中國已經(jīng)極大地衰退。極大地。中國本應(yīng)該在兩年內(nèi)取代我們成為一個經(jīng)濟大國;但現(xiàn)在，他們甚至都沒能接近我們。

This is exaggerated.
這是夸大其詞的說法。

It’s true that China’s growth is slowing. The economy expanded 6.5 percent in the three months that ended in September, the slowest pace in almost a decade. (Those are the official numbers, at least. Many economists believe Beijing’s statistics are implausibly smooth and do not square with outside estimates.)
中國經(jīng)濟放緩的確是事實。在截止9月份的三個月中，經(jīng)濟增長了6.5%，這是近十年來最慢的增長速度。(這些至少是官方數(shù)字。許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為，北京的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)令人難以置信地平穩(wěn)，并且與外部估計不相符。)

But even if China’s growth rate hadn’t slowed, the country was hardly about to eclipse the United States in two years. Last year, Chinese economic output totaled $12.2 trillion, according to the World Bank. The American economy’s output totaled $19.4 trillion. Assuming the two economies kept growing at last year’s rates, it would still take around a decade for China to surpass the United States. 但即使中國的經(jīng)濟增長率沒有放緩，它也幾乎不可能在兩年內(nèi)使美國黯然失色。世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年，中國的經(jīng)濟總量為12.2萬億美元，美國的經(jīng)濟總量為19.4萬億美元。假設(shè)這兩個經(jīng)濟體以去年的經(jīng)濟增長率保持增長，中國仍需要大約10年時間超越美國。

WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的說法

China got rid of their “China ’25” because I found it very insulting. I said that to them. I said, “China ’25” is very insulting, because “China ’25” means, in 2025, they’re going to take over, economically, the world. I said, “That’s not happening.”
中國放棄了他們的“中國25”計劃，因為我發(fā)現(xiàn)那是非常無禮的。我對他們說了這一點。我說，“中國25”是非常無禮的，因為“中國25”意味著在2025年他們將在經(jīng)濟上接管世界。我說，“那不會發(fā)生。”

False. 錯。

President Trump is presumably referring to Made in China 2025, a 2015 government plan for modernizing Chinese manufacturers through state support and intervention. The Trump administration has repeatedly held up the plan as evidence that China unfairly privileges its own companies over foreign competitors in the Chinese market. The administration says its tariffs against China are intended in part to compel Beijing to change these practices.
特朗普總統(tǒng)指的大概是“中國制造2025”，這是一項2015年的政府計劃，旨在通過國家支持和干預(yù)，來實現(xiàn)中國制造的現(xiàn)代化。特朗普政府一再舉出該計劃，稱其為中國在國內(nèi)市場不公平地將本國公司優(yōu)先于外國競爭對手的證據(jù)。美國政府表示，對中國征收關(guān)稅的部分目的，正是為了迫使北京改變這些做法。

Perhaps in response to all the attention the plan has received, Chinese officials have lately stopped mentioning Made in China 2025 by name. News outlets have been ordered to keep it out of their stories.
也許是為了回應(yīng)對該計劃的所有關(guān)注，中國官員最近不再提及“中國制造2025”的名字。新聞媒體也被命令在新聞中禁提該詞。

But there is no indication that Chinese companies have halted or reversed their plans to upgrade their capabilities, or that officials are any less interested in catching up in areas like microchips.
但沒有跡象表明中國公司已經(jīng)停止或扭轉(zhuǎn)了提高他們生產(chǎn)能力的計劃，也沒有跡象表明官員對追趕微芯片等領(lǐng)域降低了興趣。

“Chinese companies are trying to reach the technological frontier, and they’re continuing to pursue these plans even if the government has stopped being vocal about Made in China 2025,” said Dan Wang, a tech analyst for the research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. “Firms and the government have already invested billions into plants producing semiconductors, robotics, aviation equipment and other high-technology goods.”
“中國企業(yè)正試圖進入技術(shù)前沿，即使政府已經(jīng)停止說‘中國制造2025’，他們也會繼續(xù)推行這些計劃，”研究機構(gòu)佳富龍洲(Gavekal Dragonomics)的科技行業(yè)分析師王丹(音)說。“企業(yè)和政府向生產(chǎn)半導(dǎo)體、機器人、航空設(shè)備和其他高科技產(chǎn)品的工廠投入了數(shù)十億美元。”

Also, even if the plan’s goals are eventually met, it is debatable whether that would mean China will have taken over, economically, the world. The plan includes semiofficial targets for how much Chinese manufacturers sell by 2025 … in China.
并且，即使計劃的目標最終達成，這是否意味著中國將在經(jīng)濟上接管世界仍是有爭議的。該計劃包括中國制造商到2025年在中國銷售額是多少的半官方目標。

WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的說法

But I have to say this: Billions of dollars will soon be pouring into our Treasury from taxes that China is paying for us.
但我必須說：數(shù)十億美元將很快從中國為我們支付的稅費中流入我們的國庫。

False.
錯。

When the United States places tariffs on Chinese imports, China doesn’t pay them. American importers do. And they might pass along the extra costs to American consumers. (Tariffs can still hurt Chinese companies, of course, if the higher cost means Americans stop buying their products.)
當美國對中國進口產(chǎn)品征收關(guān)稅時，中國不會支付這些關(guān)稅。掏錢的是美國進口商。此外，他們可能會將額外的費用轉(zhuǎn)嫁給美國消費者。(當然，如果更高昂的價格意味著美國人會停止購買他們的商品，關(guān)稅仍然會傷害中國公司。)

Mr. Trump may be correct that Washington will soon be raking in more money thanks to the tariffs. China’s exports to the United States have risen recently despite the new levies. But that may just be because American buyers and Chinese sellers want to move as much product as they can before the spiraling trade war leads to even higher tariffs.
特朗普可能是正確的，得益于關(guān)稅，華盛頓很快就會賺到更多的錢。盡管征收了新的關(guān)稅，但中國對美國的出口最近有所上升。但這可能只是因為美國買家和中國賣家在不斷升級的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)導(dǎo)致更高關(guān)稅前，盡可能多地出售產(chǎn)品。