特朗普關(guān)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的說(shuō)法符合事實(shí)嗎？

At a news conference, the president answered a question about healing national divides by saying, falsely, that he had forced China to back down from a plan to strengthen its manufacturing industry.
在一場(chǎng)新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，特朗普總統(tǒng)回答了一個(gè)關(guān)于彌合國(guó)家分歧的問(wèn)題，他說(shuō)自己迫使中國(guó)取消了一項(xiàng)加強(qiáng)制造業(yè)的計(jì)劃，但事實(shí)并非如此。

WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的說(shuō)法

If you know, China has come down tremendously. Tremendously. China would have superseded us in two years as an economic power; now, they’re not even close.
如果你知道的話，中國(guó)已經(jīng)極大地衰退。極大地。中國(guó)本應(yīng)該在兩年內(nèi)取代我們成為一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó);但現(xiàn)在，他們甚至都沒(méi)能接近我們。

This is exaggerated.
這是夸大其詞的說(shuō)法。

It’s true that China’s growth is slowing. The economy expanded 6.5 percent in the three months that ended in September, the slowest pace in almost a decade. (Those are the official numbers, at least. Many economists believe Beijing’s statistics are implausibly smooth and do not square with outside estimates.)
中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的確是事實(shí)。在截止9月份的三個(gè)月中，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)了6.5%，這是近十年來(lái)最慢的增長(zhǎng)速度。(這些至少是官方數(shù)字。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，北京的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)令人難以置信地平穩(wěn)，并且與外部估計(jì)不相符。)

But even if China’s growth rate hadn’t slowed, the country was hardly about to eclipse the United States in two years. Last year, Chinese economic output totaled $12.2 trillion, according to the World Bank. The American economy’s output totaled $19.4 trillion. Assuming the two economies kept growing at last year’s rates, it would still take around a decade for China to surpass the United States. 但即使中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率沒(méi)有放緩，它也幾乎不可能在兩年內(nèi)使美國(guó)黯然失色。世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量為12.2萬(wàn)億美元，美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量為19.4萬(wàn)億美元。假設(shè)這兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體以去年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率保持增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)仍需要大約10年時(shí)間超越美國(guó)。

WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的說(shuō)法

China got rid of their “China ’25” because I found it very insulting. I said that to them. I said, “China ’25” is very insulting, because “China ’25” means, in 2025, they’re going to take over, economically, the world. I said, “That’s not happening.”
中國(guó)放棄了他們的“中國(guó)25”計(jì)劃，因?yàn)槲野l(fā)現(xiàn)那是非常無(wú)禮的。我對(duì)他們說(shuō)了這一點(diǎn)。我說(shuō)，“中國(guó)25”是非常無(wú)禮的，因?yàn)?ldquo;中國(guó)25”意味著在2025年他們將在經(jīng)濟(jì)上接管世界。我說(shuō)，“那不會(huì)發(fā)生。”

False. 錯(cuò)。

President Trump is presumably referring to Made in China 2025, a 2015 government plan for modernizing Chinese manufacturers through state support and intervention. The Trump administration has repeatedly held up the plan as evidence that China unfairly privileges its own companies over foreign competitors in the Chinese market. The administration says its tariffs against China are intended in part to compel Beijing to change these practices.
特朗普總統(tǒng)指的大概是“中國(guó)制造2025”，這是一項(xiàng)2015年的政府計(jì)劃，旨在通過(guò)國(guó)家支持和干預(yù)，來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)制造的現(xiàn)代化。特朗普政府一再舉出該計(jì)劃，稱其為中國(guó)在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)不公平地將本國(guó)公司優(yōu)先于外國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的證據(jù)。美國(guó)政府表示，對(duì)中國(guó)征收關(guān)稅的部分目的，正是為了迫使北京改變這些做法。

Perhaps in response to all the attention the plan has received, Chinese officials have lately stopped mentioning Made in China 2025 by name. News outlets have been ordered to keep it out of their stories.
也許是為了回應(yīng)對(duì)該計(jì)劃的所有關(guān)注，中國(guó)官員最近不再提及“中國(guó)制造2025”的名字。新聞媒體也被命令在新聞中禁提該詞。

But there is no indication that Chinese companies have halted or reversed their plans to upgrade their capabilities, or that officials are any less interested in catching up in areas like microchips.
但沒(méi)有跡象表明中國(guó)公司已經(jīng)停止或扭轉(zhuǎn)了提高他們生產(chǎn)能力的計(jì)劃，也沒(méi)有跡象表明官員對(duì)追趕微芯片等領(lǐng)域降低了興趣。

“Chinese companies are trying to reach the technological frontier, and they’re continuing to pursue these plans even if the government has stopped being vocal about Made in China 2025,” said Dan Wang, a tech analyst for the research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. “Firms and the government have already invested billions into plants producing semiconductors, robotics, aviation equipment and other high-technology goods.”
“中國(guó)企業(yè)正試圖進(jìn)入技術(shù)前沿，即使政府已經(jīng)停止說(shuō)‘中國(guó)制造2025’，他們也會(huì)繼續(xù)推行這些計(jì)劃，”研究機(jī)構(gòu)佳富龍洲(Gavekal Dragonomics)的科技行業(yè)分析師王丹(音)說(shuō)。“企業(yè)和政府向生產(chǎn)半導(dǎo)體、機(jī)器人、航空設(shè)備和其他高科技產(chǎn)品的工廠投入了數(shù)十億美元。”

Also, even if the plan’s goals are eventually met, it is debatable whether that would mean China will have taken over, economically, the world. The plan includes semiofficial targets for how much Chinese manufacturers sell by 2025 … in China.
并且，即使計(jì)劃的目標(biāo)最終達(dá)成，這是否意味著中國(guó)將在經(jīng)濟(jì)上接管世界仍是有爭(zhēng)議的。該計(jì)劃包括中國(guó)制造商到2025年在中國(guó)銷售額是多少的半官方目標(biāo)。

WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的說(shuō)法

But I have to say this: Billions of dollars will soon be pouring into our Treasury from taxes that China is paying for us.
但我必須說(shuō)：數(shù)十億美元將很快從中國(guó)為我們支付的稅費(fèi)中流入我們的國(guó)庫(kù)。

False.
錯(cuò)。

When the United States places tariffs on Chinese imports, China doesn’t pay them. American importers do. And they might pass along the extra costs to American consumers. (Tariffs can still hurt Chinese companies, of course, if the higher cost means Americans stop buying their products.)
當(dāng)美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品征收關(guān)稅時(shí)，中國(guó)不會(huì)支付這些關(guān)稅。掏錢的是美國(guó)進(jìn)口商。此外，他們可能會(huì)將額外的費(fèi)用轉(zhuǎn)嫁給美國(guó)消費(fèi)者。(當(dāng)然，如果更高昂的價(jià)格意味著美國(guó)人會(huì)停止購(gòu)買他們的商品，關(guān)稅仍然會(huì)傷害中國(guó)公司。)

Mr. Trump may be correct that Washington will soon be raking in more money thanks to the tariffs. China’s exports to the United States have risen recently despite the new levies. But that may just be because American buyers and Chinese sellers want to move as much product as they can before the spiraling trade war leads to even higher tariffs.
特朗普可能是正確的，得益于關(guān)稅，華盛頓很快就會(huì)賺到更多的錢。盡管征收了新的關(guān)稅，但中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)的出口最近有所上升。但這可能只是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)買家和中國(guó)賣家在不斷升級(jí)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)導(dǎo)致更高關(guān)稅前，盡可能多地出售產(chǎn)品。