經(jīng)濟前景不確定，阿里下調(diào)年收入增長預(yù)期

SHANGHAI——China’s biggest e-commerce company is expecting rockier times ahead, a troubling sign for a vast economy that is one of the world’s most important engines of growth.

上海——中國最大的電子商務(wù)公司預(yù)計迎來更加艱難的時期，對這個世界上最重要的增長引擎之一的龐大經(jīng)濟體來說，這是一個令人不安的跡象。

The flagging pace of economic expansion in China and the country’s trade war with the United States led the Alibaba Group to cut its estimate of revenue growth for the current fiscal year, which ends in March, by around 5 percent, the shopping giant said on Friday. For the quarter that ended in September, revenue came in at $12.4 billion, a 54 percent increase from a year earlier but less than analysts had expected.

該購物巨頭上周五表示，中國經(jīng)濟擴張步伐放緩，加之該國與美國的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，阿里巴巴集團將截至3月份的當前財年收入增長預(yù)期下調(diào)約5%。在截至9月結(jié)束的季度，該公司收入為124億美元，比去年同期增長54%，但低于分析師的預(yù)期。

“The global economy is in a state of uncertainty,” Daniel Zhang, Alibaba’s chief executive, said in a conference call with analysts. “The U.S.-China trade tensions create increased risk of instability.”

“全球經(jīng)濟處于不確定狀態(tài)，”阿里巴巴首席執(zhí)行官張勇在與分析師的電話會議上表示。 “美中貿(mào)易緊張局勢加劇了不穩(wěn)定的風險。”

The decision to lower sales expectations was made only recently, the company’s chief financial officer, Maggie Wu, said. Economic conditions deteriorated noticeably in just the past month, she said. “Merchants are facing challenging times,” she said.

該公司首席財務(wù)官武衛(wèi)表示，最近才決定降低銷售預(yù)期。她說，過去一個月經(jīng)濟狀況明顯惡化。 “商家正經(jīng)歷艱難時刻，”她說。

There is mounting evidence that China’s economy, the world’s second-largest after the United States’, is slowing. But Alibaba’s trimming of its sales outlook suggests the downturn is starting to affect more parts of the economy, including China’s growing middle class.

中國是世界上僅次于美國的第二大經(jīng)濟體，越來越多的證據(jù)表明其經(jīng)濟正在放緩。但阿里巴巴下調(diào)銷售預(yù)期的舉動表明，衰退開始影響經(jīng)濟的更多領(lǐng)域，包括中國不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階級。

The Chinese government reported last month that economic output grew 6.5 percent in the latest quarter compared with the previous year, its slowest pace in nearly a decade. The country’s stock markets have tumbled, and its currency has slid. Beijing has pushed to add more money to the economy and had prodded local governments to increase spending. But the mountains of debt the country accumulated to fuel past growth are tying the authorities’ hands.

中國政府上個月公布，最近一個季度的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出同比增長6.5%，是近十年來最慢的增速。該國的股市下跌，貨幣貶值。北京方面一直推動為經(jīng)濟注入更多資金，并敦促地方政府增加開支。但是，這個國家過去為促進經(jīng)濟增長而積累的大量債務(wù)，如今卻縛住了當局的手腳。

China’s shoppers have generally been able to buoy the economy through its past ups and downs, as hundreds of millions of people rose into the middle class and spent their increased earnings on cars, appliances and better-quality food. Lately, though, consumers say they are tightening their purse strings and saving more of their income. Alibaba’s sales of electronics and other big-ticket items have been affected, executives said during the conference call on Friday.

隨著數(shù)億人進入中產(chǎn)階級，并且把增加的收入用來購買汽車、電器和優(yōu)質(zhì)食品，中國的購物者通常能夠支撐經(jīng)濟度過起伏。然而最近，消費者表示他們正在收緊錢包，將更多收入存起來。高管們在周五的電話會議上表示，阿里巴巴的電子產(chǎn)品和其他高價商品的銷售受到了影響。

Shawn Yang, 27, works in finance in Shanghai. He said that distress being felt in his industry had him thinking twice about buying nonessential items like gadgets and video games.

27歲的肖恩·楊(Shawn Yang，音)在上海從事金融工作。他說，自己的行業(yè)感受到了困境，這讓他在購買電子產(chǎn)品和電子游戲等非必需品時三思而后行。

Singles Day, the annual online shopping bonanza in China, comes on Nov. 11. Last year, Mr. Yang spent nearly $600 on workout clothes, shoes, a yoga mat and a coffee machine.

“光棍節(jié)”是每年11月11日中國的網(wǎng)上購物盛會。去年，楊先生花了近600美元購買運動服、鞋子、瑜伽墊和咖啡機。

This year? He plans to spend less than half that amount, on jeans from Zara, two shirts for work and a bottle of moisturizer.

今年?他的計劃支出還不到600美元的一半，用于購買Zara牛仔褲，兩件工作時穿的襯衫和一瓶保濕霜。

The other dark cloud hovering over the Chinese economy has drifted in from overseas.

籠罩在中國經(jīng)濟上的另一片烏云是從海外飄來的。

The quarter that ended in September was the first since the Trump administration began its trade war with China. Alibaba executives have sought to reassure investors by pointing out that even if tariffs on imports make American goods more expensive, Chinese customers can still use Alibaba’s platforms to buy more products made domestically or in other countries.

于9月結(jié)束的季度是特朗普政府與中國開始貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)以來的第一個季度。阿里巴巴高管試圖向投資者保證，即使進口關(guān)稅使美國商品更加昂貴，中國客戶仍然可以利用阿里巴巴的平臺購買更多在國內(nèi)或其他國家生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品。

But the effects of the tariffs are only beginning to be felt across China’s $12 trillion economy. Factory activity is slowing, which could eventually result in job losses and a drop in retail spending. Washington and Beijing seem to be hunkering down for a protracted conflict, one in which disagreements about trade seem inextricable from broader questions involving geopolitical and technological dominance.

但是，中國這個規(guī)模達12萬億美元的經(jīng)濟體才剛剛開始感受到關(guān)稅的影響。工廠活動正在放緩，這最終可能導(dǎo)致失業(yè)和零售支出下降。華盛頓和北京似乎已經(jīng)準備迎接一場曠日持久的沖突，在這場沖突中，貿(mào)易方面的分歧似乎與涉及地緣政治和科技優(yōu)勢的更廣泛問題密不可分。

For Alibaba, the timing is inopportune.

對于阿里巴巴來說，這個時機很不合適。

Investors have already been selling off shares in technology companies on both sides of the Pacific this year. Alibaba stock, which trades in the United States, has lost around 30 percent of its value since June. Other major Chinese internet companies have fared even worse, as fears spread over a frostier regulatory environment for the country’s most vibrant enterprises.

今年，投資者一直在出售中美兩國科技公司的股票。自6月以來，在美國交易的阿里巴巴股票已下跌約30%。其他主要的中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司表現(xiàn)更差，因為人們愈來愈擔心這個國家最具活力的企業(yè)正在遭受日益嚴厲的監(jiān)管環(huán)境。

Alibaba has long enjoyed an unmatched grip on how Chinese consumers shop on their phones and computers. Lately, the company has said its future depends on extending its consumer empire into the wider, nondigital world.

長期以來，阿里巴巴主宰著中國消費者在手機和電腦上的購物。最近，該公司表示，它的未來取決于將消費帝國擴展到更廣泛的線下世界。

The company now has nearly 80 of its lavish, full-service Hema supermarkets, up from 20 a year ago. Alibaba’s logistics arm, Cainiao, recently opened what it called the “largest robotic smart warehouse in China,” in which 700 boxy droids wheel around rearranging giant shelves laden with goods.

該公司目前擁有近80家提供全方位服務(wù)的豪華盒馬鮮生超市，一年前還只有20家。阿里巴巴的物流部門菜鳥最近開設(shè)了其所謂的“中國最大的機器人智能倉庫”，700個四方形的機器人在這里圍繞著裝滿貨物的巨型貨架，重新整理貨物。

Expanding its operations offline has helped raise Alibaba’s sales growth. Revenue from retail experiments like Hema jumped 151 percent in the latest quarter from a year earlier. Sales in the company’s cloud-computing division, the market leader in China, soared 90 percent.

擴展線下業(yè)務(wù)有助于提升阿里巴巴的銷售增長。在最近一個季度，盒馬等零售實驗的收入較上年同期增長了151%。該公司云計算部門在中國市場居于領(lǐng)先地位，其銷售額飆升了90%。

But spending on developing the new ventures has squeezed the company’s bottom line. Asked on Friday whether the more pessimistic outlook for this year might lead Alibaba to scale back on such projects, Ms. Wu, the chief financial officer, said the company evaluated them not on their financial return, but according to other metrics, such as the number of users they attract.

但是，開發(fā)新項目的開支已經(jīng)擠壓了公司的利潤。公司首席財務(wù)官武衛(wèi)在上周五被問到，今年更為悲觀的前景是否會導(dǎo)致阿里巴巴縮減此類項目，她回答，公司不會根據(jù)財務(wù)回報對其進行評估，而是根據(jù)吸引用戶數(shù)量等其他指標。