中美關(guān)系下滑的速度超出人們預(yù)料。隨之而來(lái)的問(wèn)題是：這兩個(gè)國(guó)家是否會(huì)閉著眼睛跳入所謂守成大國(guó)與新興大國(guó)不惜發(fā)生戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的“修昔底德陷阱”?美國(guó)在推動(dòng)加快這個(gè)下滑進(jìn)程，但需仔細(xì)考量的是：“這是否符合美國(guó)的最佳利益?”而對(duì)于中國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō)，需要考慮的不僅是如何智慧應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)，而且要看這種向錯(cuò)誤方向的下滑有沒(méi)有可能被阻止。

China-US relations have deteriorated faster than almost anyone could have expected. The question looms: Are the two countries leaping with their eyes closed into a so-called Thucydides Trap, with war possible between the rising and the established power? The US is driving this process and should reflect carefully whether it's in Americans' best interests to continue down this path. China also needs to consider how to address the challenges wisely and whether the slide in the wrong direction can be halted.

貿(mào)易摩擦帶來(lái)的緊張局勢(shì)開(kāi)始向其他領(lǐng)域蔓延。美國(guó)聲稱中國(guó)已成為其主要的戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，甚至指責(zé)中國(guó)“干涉”選舉并試圖挑戰(zhàn)美國(guó)的全球霸權(quán)。在國(guó)際層面，全球主義和多邊主義遭到批判;同時(shí)地緣政治和大國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)重登臺(tái)面，同民粹主義、保護(hù)主義雜揉在一起，正在削弱幾十年來(lái)各國(guó)之間建立的紐帶。所有這些不確定因素頗有要將世界拖回到20世紀(jì)上半葉那種動(dòng)蕩狀態(tài)之勢(shì)。

Tensions caused by trade have started to spread to other areas. The US is now claiming that China has become its main strategic competitor, even accusing it of interfering in elections and seeking to challenge American global hegemony. At the international level, globalism and multilateralism are under attack, and the resurgence of geopolitical and power competition, mixed with populism and protectionism, are weakening the bonds built among countries in recent decades. These uncertainties seem poised to drag the world back to the turbulent years of the early 20th century.

造成這些緊張的原因是多元和多樣化的。在工業(yè)和技術(shù)領(lǐng)域圍繞新增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)是原因之一;動(dòng)搖了自由民主國(guó)家的重大政治力量的變化也帶來(lái)不安。此外，美國(guó)等西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家基于對(duì)不同政治制度的懷疑心態(tài)，對(duì)中國(guó)在共產(chǎn)黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下取得成功疑懼日深。

The causes for these tensions are many and various. Competition among the new drivers of growth, industry and technology is a source of unease. So, too, are the seismic political realignments in liberal democracies. It also seems that the US and other Western countries, driven by their suspicion of different political systems, have become more wary or even fearful of China's success under the leadership of the Communist Party.

美國(guó)需要意識(shí)到，它的諸多怨訴都建立在不牢固的事實(shí)基礎(chǔ)之上。例如，美國(guó)自認(rèn)為是全球化的受害者 —— 即便數(shù)據(jù)所證明的事實(shí)與此恰恰相反。根據(jù)世界銀行以現(xiàn)價(jià)美元估算值所做的統(tǒng)計(jì)：美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值從1990年的5.98萬(wàn)億美元增長(zhǎng)到2017年的19.39萬(wàn)億美元 —— 人均增加35,577美元;而同期中國(guó)人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)8,509美元，不及美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)額的四分之一。

The US needs to realize that many of its complaints rest on shaky foundations. For instance, the US seems to believe that it's a victim of globalization — even though the numbers tell a different story. According to World Bank statistics based on current dollar estimates, US gross domestic product grew from $5.98 trillion in 1990 to $19.39 trillion in 2017, an increase of $35,577 per capita. China's GDP per capita over the same period grew $8,509, or less than a quarter of the US total.

事實(shí)上美國(guó)是全球化的長(zhǎng)期主要受益者，美國(guó)跨國(guó)公司獲得了巨額利潤(rùn);而海外低成本加工制造和低價(jià)進(jìn)口商品以及全球美元環(huán)流，則無(wú)疑有助于維持美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮和民生的高基準(zhǔn)。

The reality is that the US has been the main long-term beneficiary of globalization. US multinationals have earned huge profits. And there's no doubt that Americans' prosperity and high living standards have been helped by low-cost overseas manufacturing, low-priced imports, and the global circulation of dollars.

盡管如此，在美國(guó)有一些人似乎想促使世界上最大的兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體“脫鉤”，減少相互依存，以期阻礙或至少滯遲中國(guó)的進(jìn)步。他們提出的要求如此極端，以致于似乎這套設(shè)計(jì)的目的就是，讓中國(guó)除了對(duì)抗并卷入代價(jià)高昂的世界權(quán)力博弈之外，別無(wú)選擇。

Despite this, some in the US seem to be hoping to “decouple” the world's two biggest economies, to reduce their interdependence and hamper or at least delay China's progress. The demands they've laid out are so extreme they seem designed to leave China no option but to choose confrontation and enter a high-cost power game.

但現(xiàn)實(shí)是，中美已在同一全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體系內(nèi)相伴成長(zhǎng)了40年，相互在經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)上深層次的聯(lián)系和互補(bǔ)性意味著，“脫鉤”不可能立竿見(jiàn)影，即便不得已而發(fā)生，也要經(jīng)歷長(zhǎng)期而痛苦的過(guò)程。而這對(duì)雙方的經(jīng)濟(jì)和人民的福祉乃至全球經(jīng)濟(jì)可能造成的損害，恐怕是世界難以承受之重。

The truth is that China and the US have grown together, in the same global economic system, for 40 years. The deep connections and complementary economic structures mean that decoupling is not immediately possible. If it has to happen, it would probably involve a protracted and painful process, and the extent of the damage to each country and its people's well-being is hard to predict, as well as the damage to the world economy.

歷史進(jìn)程的方向性變化從來(lái)不是在哪個(gè)特定時(shí)間選定、抑或因某個(gè)特別事件發(fā)生的，而是在對(duì)諸多具體問(wèn)題的應(yīng)對(duì)和調(diào)整中，累積完成。只有在大勢(shì)形成之后，人們才能觀察到變化的全貌。從這個(gè)角度來(lái)看，中美現(xiàn)在的選擇所產(chǎn)生的影響，將會(huì)在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間波瀾不息。

Looking back at history, directional change is not made in a particular moment or through a single event but rather through the accumulation of many small adjustments to specific problems. The big picture only reveals itself later. In this light, the choices China and the US make now will reverberate for a long time to come.

如果中美兩國(guó)共同努力，就能夠取得重大成就。而如果兩國(guó)對(duì)抗，不論對(duì)兩國(guó)自身還是世界來(lái)說(shuō)都有極大的危害。因此雙方都需要避免誤判彼此戰(zhàn)略意圖，否則就會(huì)陷入無(wú)果的惡性循環(huán)中。

If China and the US work together, they can achieve major successes. Confrontation, by contrast, would be enormously harmful for both countries and the wider world. American and Chinese leaders cannot afford to make misjudgments on the fundamental issue of each other's intentions, or we will all lose out in a fruitless downward spiral.

美國(guó)對(duì)中國(guó)提出的許多指控并非基于可靠事實(shí)，這表明，在美國(guó)關(guān)于中國(guó)和中國(guó)的目標(biāo)和利益方面的信息是缺失的。有些指控也許是基于個(gè)別情況或事件，被故意用來(lái)作為抹黑或抨擊中國(guó)的理由。例如，如果某些中國(guó)個(gè)人或媒體以公開(kāi)合法的方式對(duì)美國(guó)政治發(fā)表評(píng)論，那么由此被指為官方干涉美國(guó)內(nèi)政是很牽強(qiáng)的。中國(guó)對(duì)外國(guó)干涉自己的內(nèi)政高度敏感，因此不會(huì)允許對(duì)別國(guó)采取這樣的做法。在缺乏有效證據(jù)的情況下，對(duì)中國(guó)進(jìn)行這樣的指責(zé)，如果不是故意妖魔化中國(guó)，那么只能被當(dāng)作一種天真的笑話來(lái)看待。

That many of the charges the US has leveled against China aren't based on solid facts indicates there is lack of sufficient information about China and its aims and interests. Some of the accusations may be based on individual cases or mishaps, which are being deliberately used to give China a bad name. For example, if a Chinese individual or a member of the news media comments on American politics in a transparent and lawful manner, it should not be misportrayed as official interference. China has been highly sensitive about foreign interference in its domestic affairs and therefore condones no behavior for such purposes. Accusing China of interference without hard evidence, for any Chinese, is no more than a naïve joke - if not a deliberate demonization.

中國(guó)人也可以做更多努力來(lái)消除這類傷害形象的誤解，官員和學(xué)者可以更積極地與美國(guó)公眾和更廣泛的國(guó)際社會(huì)進(jìn)行溝通。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，2008年發(fā)生了三聚氰胺嬰兒配方奶粉事件，現(xiàn)任白宮貿(mào)易顧問(wèn)納瓦羅曾在他的書中將此事渲染和扭曲，根據(jù)他的描述，中國(guó)人如此不道德，不僅給外國(guó)消費(fèi)者下毒，也給自己下毒。但如果中國(guó)人能主動(dòng)向外界進(jìn)行全面通報(bào)，說(shuō)明事件如何得到徹查，相關(guān)人如何被懲處，法律法規(guī)如何得到嚴(yán)格執(zhí)行以避免再發(fā)生，這樣的胡扯就不會(huì)輕易傳播。10年過(guò)去了，挑戰(zhàn)仍然存在，但食品安全已成為中國(guó)政府的頭等大事。

For its part, the Chinese can do more to dispel such corrosive misconceptions. Chinese officials and scholars can be more active in engaging the American public. Take for example, the 2008 melamine-laced baby formula scandal. Peter Navarro, now a White House trade adviser, twisted the tragic episode in his book, using it to portray the Chinese as so immoral that they would poison foreign customers and themselves. Such distortions wouldn't spread if China had proactively given the world a fuller picture of the episode, making clear that the problem was investigated, that the people responsible were punished and that laws and regulations were put in place to prevent future such occurrences. Ten years have passed and challenges remain, but food safety is a top priority of the Chinese government.

中國(guó)有權(quán)在其政治體制受到攻擊時(shí)捍衛(wèi)政治主權(quán)。同時(shí)，對(duì)美方提出的具體問(wèn)題也可以做出說(shuō)明和給予回應(yīng)。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，美國(guó)人批評(píng)中國(guó)在應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化上努力不夠，而實(shí)際上中國(guó)為改善環(huán)境付出巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)，一些工廠不得不關(guān)閉，下崗工人需要再培訓(xùn)和安置。中國(guó)人為維護(hù)一個(gè)健康的地球所經(jīng)歷的種種困難應(yīng)該讓世人所知曉。

Although China has a right to defend its sovereignty when its political system is under attack, it can also do a better job of responding to specific US complaints. Take, for instance, the empty American contention that we haven't done enough to fight climate change. To safeguard the environment, China is paying a stiff economic cost. We have closed polluting factories, which has led to layoffs and workers in need of retraining. The difficulties China is going through in service to a healthier planet need to be shared with the entire world.

如果美方提出的訴求有合理的地方，中國(guó)人可以坦然接受，并且通過(guò)加快改革來(lái)解決這類問(wèn)題。例如，中國(guó)已宣布采取措施進(jìn)一步開(kāi)放金融服務(wù)業(yè)，全面降低關(guān)稅等。為了更好地保護(hù)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)，全國(guó)人大常委會(huì)剛作出決定，涉及知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)專業(yè)技術(shù)性較強(qiáng)的二審案件，今后將直接提交最高法院審理，以利于統(tǒng)一專利等知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)司法裁判標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

Where there are reasonable requests from the US, the Chinese can candidly acknowledge and try to address them through accelerating reforms. For example, China has announced further steps to open up the financial service sector and bring down tariffs across the board. To better protect intellectual property, the Standing Committee of National People's Congress has just approved changes that the second-instance intellectual properties cases with strong technical elements will be submitted directly to our Supreme Court so as to unify the standards of adjudication.

自2014年以來(lái)，在北京、上海和廣州設(shè)立的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)法院處理了越來(lái)越多的涉及專利、商標(biāo)和版權(quán)等方面的案件。目前知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)領(lǐng)域的侵權(quán)和糾紛仍不少見(jiàn)，須進(jìn)一步提高人們的意識(shí)和加強(qiáng)從嚴(yán)執(zhí)法。如果美國(guó)真關(guān)心中國(guó)的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)，那就應(yīng)該成為中國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)挑戰(zhàn)的伙伴。

Since 2014, specialized intellectual property courts in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have handled a growing number of patent, trademark and copyright cases. Violations and disputes are not uncommon, however a strong emphasis is given to broadening people's awareness and reinforcing the execution of laws. If the US cares for China's IP improvement, it should be China's partner in addressing the challenges.

此刻，中國(guó)人需要了解中美關(guān)系所面臨的問(wèn)題及其原因。雖然新的形勢(shì)令人擔(dān)憂，但人們沒(méi)有放棄重返穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展的希望，并且愿為實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)而努力。即便“修昔底德陷阱”是存在的，但并不意味著我們必須踏進(jìn)去。

At this moment, it is important for the Chinese people to understand what is confronting us in our relationship with the US and why. Although events of late have increased apprehensiveness, we have not given up the hope of returning to a place of progress and stability, and we are willing to work toward this goal. Just because the Thucydides Trap is set, doesn't mean we have to walk into it.

This article was previously published on Bloomberg.

作者：傅瑩，全國(guó)人大外事委員會(huì)主席，中國(guó)社科院國(guó)家全球戰(zhàn)略智庫(kù)首席專家，清華大學(xué)兼職教授，中國(guó)外交部前副部長(zhǎng)