大幅減少吃肉 可以避免氣候失控

Huge reductions in meat-eating are essential to avoid dangerous climate change, according to the most comprehensive analysis yet of the food system’s impact on the environment. In western countries, beef consumption needs to fall by 90% and be replaced by five times more beans and pulses.

關(guān)于食品系統(tǒng)對(duì)環(huán)境影響的最全面分析顯示，大幅減少吃肉對(duì)于避免危險(xiǎn)的氣候變化至關(guān)重要。在西方國(guó)家，牛肉消耗量需要下降90%，取而代之的是五倍數(shù)量的豆類。

The research also finds that enormous changes to farming are needed to avoid destroying the planet’s ability to feed the 10 billion people expected to be on the planet in a few decades.

研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)，需要對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)進(jìn)行巨大變革，才能避免破壞地球在未來(lái)幾十年里要養(yǎng)活100億人口的能力。

Food production already causes great damage to the environment, via greenhouse gases from livestock, deforestation and water shortages from farming, and vast ocean dead zones from agricultural pollution. But without action, its impact will get far worse as the world population rises by 2.3 billion people by 2050 and global income triples, enabling more people to eat meat-rich western diets.

食品生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)對(duì)環(huán)境造成巨大破壞，包括牲畜產(chǎn)生溫室氣體、耕作導(dǎo)致森林退化和用水短缺、農(nóng)業(yè)污染導(dǎo)致大片海洋成為死亡地帶。但如果不采取行動(dòng)，其影響將變得愈發(fā)嚴(yán)重，因?yàn)榈?050年，全世界人口將增加23億，全球收入將增加兩倍從而使更多的人能夠采用富含肉類的西方飲食。

This trajectory would smash critical environmental limits beyond which humanity will struggle to live, the new research indicates. “It is pretty shocking,” said Marco Springmann at the University of Oxford, who led the research team. “We are really risking the sustainability of the whole system. If we are interested in people being able to farm and eat, then we better not do that.”

最新研究表明，這個(gè)軌跡將突破人類生存的環(huán)境極限。研究小組負(fù)責(zé)人、牛津大學(xué)的馬爾科·施普林曼說(shuō)：“這相當(dāng)令人震驚，我們確實(shí)是在拿整個(gè)系統(tǒng)的可持續(xù)性冒險(xiǎn)。如果我們有心讓人們能夠耕作和吃飽飯，那就最好別這樣。”

“Feeding a world population of 10 billion is possible, but only if we change the way we eat and the way we produce food,” said Prof Johan Rockstr?m at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the research team. “Greening the food sector or eating up our planet: this is what is on the menu today.”

“養(yǎng)活全世界100億人是可以做到的，但前提是我們改變飲食結(jié)構(gòu)和食品生產(chǎn)方式，”研究小組成員、德國(guó)波茨坦氣候影響研究所的約翰·羅克斯特倫教授說(shuō)，“要么讓食品行業(yè)環(huán)保，要么吃光地球：這就是當(dāng)今的抉擇。”

The new study follows the publication of a landmark UN report on Monday in which the world’s leading scientists warned there are just a dozen years in which to keep global warming under 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods and extreme heat. The report said eating less meat and dairy was important but said current trends were in the opposite direction.

在這項(xiàng)最新研究成果出臺(tái)之前，聯(lián)合國(guó)星期一發(fā)布了一份具有里程碑意義的報(bào)告。在這份報(bào)告中，世界頂尖科學(xué)家們告誡稱，把全球變暖幅度控制在1.5攝氏度以下只有12年時(shí)間可利用，超過(guò)這個(gè)幅度以后，全球氣溫哪怕上升區(qū)區(qū)半攝氏度也會(huì)大大增加干旱、洪澇和極端高溫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。報(bào)告說(shuō)，少吃肉類和奶制品很重要，但目前的趨勢(shì)正相反。

The new research, published in the journal Nature, is the most thorough to date and combined data from every country to assess the impact of food production on the global environment. It then looked at what could be done to stop the looming food crisis.

載于《自然》周刊的這項(xiàng)最新研究成果是迄今為止最徹底的，它綜合了每個(gè)國(guó)家的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)評(píng)估食品生產(chǎn)對(duì)全球環(huán)境的影響。隨后，它探討了我們要做些什么才能阻止迫在眉睫的食品危機(jī)。

“There is no magic bullet,” said Springmann. “But dietary and technological change [on farms] are the two essential things, and hopefully they can be complemented by reduction in food loss and waste.” About a third of food produced today never reaches the table.

“沒(méi)有輕而易舉的解決辦法，”施普林曼說(shuō)，“但日常飲食和(農(nóng)場(chǎng))技術(shù)變革是至關(guān)重要的兩點(diǎn)，但愿與此同時(shí)食品損失和浪費(fèi)能減少。”目前約三分之一的食品在生產(chǎn)出來(lái)以后根本未上餐桌。

The researchers found a global shift to a “flexitarian” diet was needed to keep climate change even under 2C, let alone 1.5C. This flexitarian diet means the average world citizen needs to eat 75% less beef, 90% less pork and half the number of eggs, while tripling consumption of beans and pulses and quadrupling nuts and seeds. This would halve emissions from livestock and better management of manure would enable further cuts.

研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，要使氣候變暖幅度不超過(guò)2攝氏度(更不用說(shuō)1.5攝氏度)，就必須在全球范圍內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)向“彈性素食”日常飲食。這種飲食結(jié)構(gòu)意味著普通世界公民需要少吃75%的牛肉、90%的豬肉和一半的雞蛋而將豆類消耗量增加兩倍、堅(jiān)果和種子消耗量增加三倍。這將使牲畜的碳排放量減少一半，而改進(jìn)對(duì)糞便的處理有助于進(jìn)一步減排。

In rich nations, the dietary changes required are ever more stark. UK and US citizens need to cut beef by 90% and milk by 60% while increasing beans and pulses between four and six times. However, the millions of people in poor nations who are undernourished need to eat a little more meat and dairy.

富裕國(guó)家需要做出的飲食結(jié)構(gòu)變化更大，英國(guó)和美國(guó)公民需要少攝入90%的牛肉和60%的牛奶，同時(shí)將豆類攝入量增加三至五倍。不過(guò)，貧窮國(guó)家數(shù)百萬(wàn)營(yíng)養(yǎng)不良的人需要稍微多吃一點(diǎn)肉和奶制品。

Reducing meat consumption might be achieved by a mix of education, taxes, subsidies for plant-based foods and changes to school and workplace menus, the scientists said.

科學(xué)家們說(shuō)，減少肉類消耗可以多管齊下，綜合利用教育、稅收、植物性食品補(bǔ)貼以及學(xué)校和工作場(chǎng)所菜單變化等手段來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。

To halt deforestation, water shortages and pollution from overuse of fertiliser, profound changes in farming practices are needed. These include increasing crop yields in poorer nations, more universal water storage and far more careful use of fertilisers.

為制止過(guò)度使用化肥造成森林退化、用水短缺和污染，耕作方法須有深刻的變革，這其中包括提高較貧窮國(guó)家的作物產(chǎn)量、更具有整體性地儲(chǔ)存水資源以及更謹(jǐn)慎地使用化肥。