警惕新冷戰(zhàn)綁架中美關系

鼓吹對華冷戰(zhàn)在美國從來就沒有停止過，在中國也有些人熱衷于跟風吆喝。自從中國成為世界第二大經濟體，美國一些政治精英鼓動了一波又一波對華政策大辯論，集中的調門就是中美關系正?；詠砻绹械膶θA政策都失敗了，中國的改革開放不但沒有達到美國預期的效果，反而隨著中國發(fā)展日益對美國的世界領導地位形成挑戰(zhàn)和威脅，中美關系已走到臨界點，應該對中國采取規(guī)范、制約和遏制的措施了。特朗普當選美國第45任總統(tǒng)，讓冷戰(zhàn)精英們感覺時機已到，于是他們大肆鼓吹中國已成為美國的頭號戰(zhàn)略競爭對手。特朗普總統(tǒng)與這些政治精英相互影響、相互利用，一時間對華貿易熱戰(zhàn)和從戰(zhàn)略上遏制中國的冷戰(zhàn)喧囂，嚴重毒化了中美關系的正常氛圍。

There have been constant calls coming from the US for a cold war with China, and there are some people in China who are keen to engage it. Since China became the world's second largest economy, some of the US political elite have demanded a review of America's China policy. The crux of their argument is that the US's China policy since the normalization of relations has failed. Not only has China's reform and opening up policy not lived up to US expectations, but China is increasingly challenging US hegemony as it develops. China-US relations, therefore, have reached a critical point at which some in the US feel it must regulate, restrict and contain China. Trump's election to the White House was taken by the “cold war elite” that their time had come to play up China as the bogeyman of world peace and a threat to American interests. It also caters to Trump's zero sum mentality to global trade, ignoring the immense benefits China's low-cost consumer goods have benefitted not just millions of American consumers for decades, but the whole world at large. Their twisted view of world trade interconnectivity led them to a philosophical cul-de-sac - ie., that they must contain China, and to a lesser extent, other trading allies, with massive tariffs. Trump's sledgehammer approach to a purely trade issue has led to universal condemnation and resistance. The concern now is that this needless hostility might spread into other areas of bilateral relations.

美國對華貿易戰(zhàn)無法無理，損人害己，這已成為世人有言無言的共識。對貿易戰(zhàn)，中國不愿打，但也不怕打。中國已被迫堅決回擊。如果是單純的貿易戰(zhàn)，相信雙方在殘酷的現(xiàn)實面前總會找到出路。問題是，當下中美間的沖撞已遠遠超出人們的想象。

While China is an unwilling participant in this trade war, it will not run away from it either as shown by its retaliatory tariffs against American imports. The hope now is that the pain inflicted on both sides will force them to the negotiating table at some point. . The immediate problem is that this tit-for-tat has already gone beyond where people thought it would go and inflicted serious damage all around.

那么，中美之間會爆發(fā)新冷戰(zhàn)嗎?時下中美關系的政治氣氛很不正常，冷戰(zhàn)幽靈正四處游蕩，冷戰(zhàn)叫囂如山雨欲來，人們已聞到了冷戰(zhàn)的火藥味。在美國，一些在軍界、情報界有頭有臉的人物甚至玩起了無中生有、混淆是非、賊喊捉賊的把戲，聲稱中國正在對美國發(fā)動一場“無聲的冷戰(zhàn)”，正在傾全部資源努力取代美國。看上去，地緣政治的強勢回歸，大國圍繞秩序主導權的博弈一定程度上構成了新冷戰(zhàn)的基礎條件。然而，在大動蕩、大變革、大調整的非(熱)戰(zhàn)時代，人類社會的主要矛盾正在發(fā)生明顯變化，地緣政治矛盾正逐步讓位于日益深化的全球化與全球治理、國家治理滯后的矛盾。當今世界經濟融合與政治對話的時代主趨勢也在相當程度上抑制著冷戰(zhàn)發(fā)酵。中美矛盾不是當今國際社會的主要矛盾。只要中國不應冷戰(zhàn)，中美冷戰(zhàn)就打不起來，但需時刻保持高度警惕，并努力化解之。

So, will there be a new Cold War between China and the US? The political atmosphere between the two countries is highly abnormal and incendiary, as the specter of the old Cold War looms and the smell of gunpowder pervades. Meanwhile, dignitaries in the US military and intelligence communities are fabricating stories and standing facts on their head by claiming that China is waging a silent cold war and mobilizing all its resources to usurp the US. It does appear, to some extent, that the return to geopolitical tension and jostling for position among the great powers has created the basic conditions for a new cold war. But what's most concerning are the warnings by some serious scholars that the rivalry between the two powers could be spiraling down towards the Thucydides Trap. Fortunately, this is not inevitable in view of the fast changing geo-political dynamics on the world stage, mostly favorable to China. Thanks to President Xi's bold actions, China is now viewed by many as the champion of free trade, sustainable development, efforts to counter climate change and world peace, having supplied the most number of troops to the United Nations Peacekeeping Force. The world community is not blind to China's benevolent influence, and how it uses its power for the greater good of humanity. With such a track record, it's hard to see China firing the first shot in a hot war.

傳統(tǒng)的冷戰(zhàn)，雙方關系的對抗性極強。冷戰(zhàn)雙方，尤其是首先挑起的一方，以攻擊對方制度、否定對方價值觀、詆毀對方影響、削弱對方力量、顛覆對方政權為出發(fā)點和最高目標。美國借這些手段加速了前蘇聯(lián)的消亡和分裂。時代不同了，產生冷戰(zhàn)的諸因素中，制度的不同可以說是形成對抗的最基本因素，但已不是唯一和決定性的。價值觀和利益也都可以說與制度因素同等重要，但也都不是唯一的和決定性的。筆者以為，結合并高于以上三要素的“霸權謀取”、“霸權維護”和“霸凌主義”才是最根本的因素，是一切冷戰(zhàn)最基本的共性。這一看法或許也解釋了相同制度下、同一價值觀體系內無法避免冷戰(zhàn)。特朗普總統(tǒng)領導下的美國似乎正在成為同一體系內冷戰(zhàn)的肇始者和踐行者。

During the old Cold War, the relationship between the two camps was one of extreme antagonism. If one side was provoked, it would seek to attack the other's institutions, denounce its values, vilify its influence, weaken its strength and subvert its political power. These were methods used by the US to accelerate the demise of and divide the Soviet Union. Times have changed, however. Of the factors that cause cold wars, differences in institutions is one of the basic factors in creating confrontation, though that is not the only or decisive factor; different values and interests are on a par with institutional factors in terms of importance, but these are also not the only or decisive factors. Combined with and more important than these three factors is “seeking hegemony”, “hegemonic maintenance” and “hegemonic bullying”, which are the most basic factors and most fundamental commonalities of all cold wars. This view also explains why a cold war cannot even be avoided when countries operate within the same institutions and have the same value systems. It seems that under Trump's leadership, the US is becoming a pioneer and practitioner of cold war with countries within a common system.

中華五千年文明的精髓從來都是否定霸權的，新中國歷代領導人從來都是反對霸權的，反對霸權主義還明確而充分地體現(xiàn)在中國的憲法和政府政策中。中國十分厭惡和反對冷戰(zhàn)。美國就不好說了，現(xiàn)代冷戰(zhàn)就是美國人發(fā)明的，這些人的基因中充滿了霸權思想和冷戰(zhàn)思維，他們一代代相傳。當下美國國內政治嚴重分化、異化，貧富鴻溝日益加深，“美國失敗”的焦慮也確實很難不讓政治精英們重拾祖宗遺留的冷戰(zhàn)魔杖。然而，與中國打冷戰(zhàn)，美國找錯了對象。

A defining aspect of China's five-thousand-year-old civilization has been its rejection of hegemony. Indeed, the leaders of the People's Republic of China have always opposed hegemony, and this is clearly reflected in China's Constitution and its government policies. China hates and opposes cold wars. The US does not as can be seen in its history of foreign interventions. This modern cold war is an American invention. American genes carry on the hegemonic and old Cold War mentality. Domestic politics in the US is highly contentious, divided and divisive, and the gap between rich and poor is widening. Fear of failure in the US has inspired some to pick up the Cold War mantle left by their ancestors. But in targeting China, the US has picked the wrong adversary to wage its cold war.

傳統(tǒng)冷戰(zhàn)有一個明顯的特征，那就是以集團政治和同盟價值觀為基礎。如今華約已不復存在，北約雖一時注入地緣活力，東擴南下，但眼下離心傾向、甚至分裂現(xiàn)象嚴重。特朗普公開聲稱歐盟為“敵人”絕不是一時口誤，恰恰反映了傳統(tǒng)冷戰(zhàn)的精神支柱——東西方對抗的作用邊緣化的傾向。美國傳統(tǒng)冷戰(zhàn)同盟軍的美夢恐難實現(xiàn)，勢力范圍論在當今時代也只是癡人說夢。

A distinct feature of the old Cold War is that it was based on group politics and shared values. Nowadays, the Warsaw Pact no longer exists, and although NATO has gained geopolitical vitality as it has pushed eastward and southward, its centrifugal tendencies and fissions raise serious questions about its efficacy. Trump's public denunciation of the EU as an “enemy” was no slip of the tongue. Rather, it reflects a central pillar of the original Cold War: the marginalizing tendency of East-West tension. The US dream of rebuilding the old Cold War alliance will be difficult to achieve, and the US theory of spheres of influence is but a distant dream.

今天的社會已遠不是喬治·凱南所在的那個年代，凡有點政治頭腦的人都會看到，全球化、信息化、產業(yè)鏈、價值鏈已成為不可阻擋的歷史發(fā)展潮流。冷戰(zhàn)與你中有我、我中有你的國際社會格格不入。有人想把當前訛詐式的貿易戰(zhàn)以冷戰(zhàn)形式延續(xù)下去，這是與時代主旋律唱反調。任何國家的人民和企業(yè)都會站出來反對。技術封鎖也好，極限施壓也罷，強征關稅也好，挑起匯率戰(zhàn)也罷，對中國這樣已經并將進一步敞開大門搞建設的國度都會變得毫無意義。

The era of George Kennan is long gone, and anyone with even a modicum of political savvy realizes that globalization, IT application, industry chains and value chains are irresistible historical trends. A cold war is incompatible with the inseparable nature of the international community or free market practices. Some people wish to continue the current extortionate trade war in the form of a cold war, which goes against the historical tide. The people and businesses of all countries oppose this. Technological blockades, extreme pressure, punitive tariffs and provoking a currency war will not work against a country such as China that has already opened and continues to open further its doors to the world.

筆者還想提醒那些熱衷于同中國打冷戰(zhàn)的人，在地緣經濟和地緣安全問題上，同美國一樣，中國同樣擁有自己廣闊的戰(zhàn)略縱深。在地緣戰(zhàn)略的總體環(huán)境上，當今中國可能越來越比美國顯得更有優(yōu)勢。今年G7峰會和北約峰會上，特朗普總統(tǒng)忙不停地在內部進行“清理”、“算賬”，處處樹敵。中國奉行不結盟政策，但與世界許多國家已經形成各有特色的合作伙伴關系，共謀發(fā)展。結伴同行，這是一股清新的歷史潮流。

I would remind those keen on fighting a cold war with China that, like the US, China has its own strategic maneuverability when it comes to geo-economic and geo-security issues. In terms of overall geopolitical strategy, China today has an increasingly clear advantage over the US. Although it appears that the US has many allies, at the G7 and NATO summits this year, Trump spent his time sorting out problems and settling scores, creating enemies everywhere he went. China, on the other hand, pursues a policy of nonalignment, but it enjoys special partnerships with many countries around the world. Working together toward common goals has thus become a new historical trend.

冷戰(zhàn)還有一條隱蔽的戰(zhàn)線，那就是搞和平演變，搞顏色革命，把變天的希望寄托在未來一代人身上。這一點，美國一些機構早就打著各種旗號明里暗里在做了。中國也確有不少人崇拜美國。但這些絲毫影響不了自強不息的中華兒女，中國特色的社會主義市場經濟道路將越走越寬。中國特色社會主義理論和實踐讓億萬民眾有了日益增多的獲得感和幸福感，這是一道牢不可破的新時代防火長城，抵御著內外各種不健康思潮的侵蝕。任何改變中國顏色和分裂中國的圖謀都不會得逞。

There is also a hidden front within the new cold war. That is, a group that wishes to see China evolve peacefully and for it to change its political persuasion. For this, they pin their hopes on the future generations. There are indeed some people in China who worship the US, but they have limited influence on the Chinese people who still believe in constantly striving for self-improvement. It is simply that the path of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics is getting wider acceptance because, as they say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. The idea of serving the country has been ingrained in its people, because the notion of noblesse oblige was part of the ethic of Chinese people since Confucian times. The successful implementation of socialism with Chinese characteristics has instilled in the Chinese people with great pride and gratitude for the untold benefits it brought them. This has created an impenetrable, albeit intangible, new Great Wall around China that is capable of resisting the erosion of unhealthy thoughts generated inside and outside China. Any attempt to change China's political system or divide the country will inevitably fail.

中國將集中精力、堅定不移地做好自己的事，推動構建新型國際關系，打造人類命運共同體，堅決反對和努力避免冷戰(zhàn)。這些將成為中國在處理國際關系中的最高境界。

China will determinedly and unswervingly stick to its chosen path to success. It will continue to expand its cordial international relations with a view to creating a harmonious global community with a shared future, and resolutely opposing and working hard to avoid a cold war.

作者：陳永龍，中國國際問題研究基金會美國研究中心主任