特朗普考慮對(duì)2000億美元中國(guó)商品征收25%關(guān)稅

WASHINGTON — President Trump escalated his trade war with China on Wednesday, ordering his administration to consider more than doubling proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent, as talks between Washington and Beijing remain at a standstill. 華盛頓——周三，隨著華盛頓和北京之間的貿(mào)易談判仍處在停滯狀態(tài)，特朗普總統(tǒng)升級(jí)了與中國(guó)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，下令他的政府考慮將價(jià)值2000億美元的中國(guó)商品擬征的關(guān)稅提高一倍以上，從10%變成25%。

Mr. Trump instructed the United States trade representative to look into increasing tariffs on Chinese imports like fish, petroleum, chemicals, handbags and other goods to 25 percent, a significant step in a dispute that is beginning to take a toll on industries and consumers in both countries. A final decision on the size and scope of the tariffs is not expected before September.

特朗普指示美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表考慮魚類、石油、化工產(chǎn)品、手袋和其他中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品的關(guān)稅提高到25%的方案，這是在一場(chǎng)開(kāi)始損害兩國(guó)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者的爭(zhēng)端中邁出的重要一步。有關(guān)關(guān)稅的規(guī)模和范圍的最終決定，預(yù)計(jì)將在9月前作出。

The effort to further punish China is being led by hard-line advisers to Mr. Trump, who believe inflicting painful measures on Beijing is the best way to force it back to the negotiating table on trade. But that approach is once again creating fissures within Mr. Trump’s own team, with his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, adamantly opposed to ratcheting up the tariffs and Peter Navarro, a key trade adviser, advocating the higher duties, people with knowledge of the discussions said. Stephen K. Bannon, who left the White House last August, has also been counseling the president to pursue tougher tariffs, according to people familiar with his thinking. 特朗普顧問(wèn)中的強(qiáng)硬派主導(dǎo)了進(jìn)一步懲罰中國(guó)的行動(dòng)，他們認(rèn)為，對(duì)北京施加痛苦的舉措是迫使它回到貿(mào)易談判桌的最佳方式。據(jù)知情人士透露，這種做法再次在特朗普?qǐng)F(tuán)隊(duì)內(nèi)部造成了分裂，財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)史蒂文·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)堅(jiān)決反對(duì)提高關(guān)稅，而主要貿(mào)易顧問(wèn)彼得·納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)則主張加稅。據(jù)了解其想法的人說(shuō)，去年8月離開(kāi)白宮的斯蒂芬·班農(nóng)(Stephen K. Bannon)也一直建議特朗普總統(tǒng)提高關(guān)稅。

The potential for a 25 percent tax is being fueled by deep frustration within the Trump administration over its unsuccessful attempts to press China to change its trade practices, as well as by a sharp decline in the value of China’s currency. Administration officials have also been concerned that China may be manipulating prices of commodities like soybeans to harm American farmers, and hurting American companies through regulatory practices — for example, detaining shipments of agricultural products in customs until they rot. 特朗普政府對(duì)于未能成功迫使中國(guó)改變其貿(mào)易做法深感失望，加之人民幣匯率大幅下跌，都是可能征收25%關(guān)稅的推動(dòng)因素。政府官員還擔(dān)心，中國(guó)可能操縱大豆等大宗商品的價(jià)格，傷害美國(guó)農(nóng)民的利益，并通過(guò)監(jiān)管措施傷害美國(guó)企業(yè)，比如將農(nóng)產(chǎn)品扣在海關(guān)直至腐爛。

“We have been very clear about the specific changes China should undertake,” Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, said in a statement Wednesday. “Regrettably, instead of changing its harmful behavior, China has illegally retaliated against U.S. workers, farmers, ranchers and businesses.” “我們一直很清楚中國(guó)應(yīng)該進(jìn)行的具體改革，”美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表羅伯特·萊特希澤(Robert Lighthizer)周三在一份聲明中表示。“令人遺憾的是，中國(guó)非但沒(méi)有改變其有害行為，反而非法報(bào)復(fù)美國(guó)的工人、農(nóng)民、農(nóng)場(chǎng)主和企業(yè)。”

Since formal talks between Beijing and Washington broke down in May, Mr. Trump has doubled down on his threats, saying he is prepared to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports. Beijing has promised to retaliate with its own measures, and both countries have already imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s products. 自今年5月中美之間的正式談判破裂以來(lái)，特朗普已將威脅加碼，稱他準(zhǔn)備對(duì)所有的中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品征收關(guān)稅。北京已經(jīng)放話，要采取報(bào)復(fù)措施，兩國(guó)已經(jīng)對(duì)彼此價(jià)值340億美元的產(chǎn)品征收關(guān)稅。

“China’s position is firm and clear: Pressure and blackmail from the U.S. won’t work,” Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a briefing on Wednesday in Beijing in response to reports about the 25 percent tariffs. “If the U.S. takes a further and upgraded move, China would definitely retaliate to safeguard our legal rights.” “中方在中美經(jīng)貿(mào)問(wèn)題的立場(chǎng)是非常堅(jiān)定、明確的，沒(méi)有改變。美方的施壓和訛詐不會(huì)起作用，”中國(guó)外交部發(fā)言人耿爽周三在北京的一個(gè)新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，就25%的關(guān)稅報(bào)道作出回應(yīng)時(shí)稱。“如果美方采取進(jìn)一步升級(jí)舉動(dòng)，中方必然會(huì)予以反制，堅(jiān)決維護(hù)我們的正當(dāng)合法權(quán)益。”

Mr. Trump privately told advisers this week that he was intent on staying the course to punish China with additional tariffs. Mr. Mnuchin has been advising against such a move, preferring to try to engage with his Chinese counterparts to resolve their differences. 特朗普本周私下告訴他的顧問(wèn)，自己有意堅(jiān)持通過(guò)提高關(guān)稅來(lái)懲罰中國(guó)。馬努欽一直建議不要這樣做，他更愿意與中國(guó)同行展開(kāi)接觸，解決雙方的分歧。

But his hand has been weakened by a recent and rapid depreciation in China’s currency, which helps to make Chinese goods cheaper in foreign markets and buoys exports. That has given hard-liners inside and outside the administration an opening to advocate even higher penalties. 但他的手段被近期中國(guó)貨幣迅速貶值削弱了，貶值讓中國(guó)商品在外國(guó)市場(chǎng)上變得更便宜，并且提振了出口。這給了特朗普政府內(nèi)外強(qiáng)硬派一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，讓他們得以推動(dòng)更高額的懲罰關(guān)稅。

The Chinese currency fell to a 13-month low against the dollar this week. The move came partly because of market forces, but also because China has been allowing the heavily managed value of its currency, the renminbi, to slide in currency markets in recent weeks. 人民幣兌美元的匯率本周跌至13個(gè)月以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。這一舉措的出現(xiàn)，部分是因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)力量，但還因?yàn)橹袊?guó)一直在允許該國(guó)嚴(yán)加管控的人民幣近幾周內(nèi)在貨幣市場(chǎng)下滑。

Mr. Trump strongly warned China against further depreciation of its currency as part of a flurry of early-morning tweets nearly two weeks ago. 近兩周前，在一連串早間推文中，特朗普強(qiáng)烈警告中國(guó)不要讓其貨幣進(jìn)一步貶值。

Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that ratcheting up tariffs to 25 percent would put substantial pressure on Chinese leaders to devalue their currency even more, to help offset any further losses to exporters. “We can expect further depreciation and vigorous internal debates about a one-off devaluation,” Mr. Kennedy said. 國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略研究中心(Strategic and International Studies)的中國(guó)專家斯科特·肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)表示，將關(guān)稅漲至25%會(huì)給中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人帶來(lái)巨大壓力，為了幫助抵消未來(lái)出口商出現(xiàn)的損失，他們會(huì)讓貨幣進(jìn)一步貶值。“我們能預(yù)見(jiàn)到會(huì)繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)貶值，以及內(nèi)部關(guān)于一次性貶值的激烈討論，”肯尼迪說(shuō)。

The message from the White House is “we can raise tariffs faster than you can devalue,” said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. 白宮的意思是“我們提高關(guān)稅的速度比你們貨幣貶值快，”美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所(American Enterprise Institute)史劍道(Derek Scissors)說(shuō)。

The 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports would come on top of the existing penalties on $34 billion worth of products and an additional $16 billion that are scheduled to go into effect soon. China has vowed to respond to any trade measures in kind, and it has already imposed its own tariffs on $34 billion worth of American soybeans, pork, electric vehicles and other goods. 對(duì)價(jià)值2000億美元的進(jìn)口商品征收25%的關(guān)稅會(huì)在現(xiàn)行懲罰的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行。目前美國(guó)對(duì)價(jià)值340億美元的商品征收懲罰性關(guān)稅，另有對(duì)價(jià)值160億美元商品的關(guān)稅將很快生效。中國(guó)已經(jīng)誓言要以同樣的方式對(duì)任何貿(mào)易措施作出回應(yīng)，并且已經(jīng)對(duì)價(jià)值340億美元的美國(guó)大豆、豬肉、電動(dòng)汽車及其他商品加征了關(guān)稅。

The administration’s trade moves are aimed at forcing China to end what it calls unfair trade practices, including improperly obtaining American intellectual property. Mr. Trump’s advisers argue that past administrations have failed to sway China with diplomacy and that the United States must be prepared to take a tough stance to change its course, even if it hurts American businesses and customers in the short term. 政府的貿(mào)易舉措旨在迫使中國(guó)結(jié)束它所稱的不公平貿(mào)易行為，包括不正當(dāng)?shù)孬@取美國(guó)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)。特朗普的顧問(wèn)認(rèn)為，過(guò)去的政府未能通過(guò)外交手段影響中國(guó)，因此美國(guó)現(xiàn)在必須準(zhǔn)備采取強(qiáng)硬立場(chǎng)，改變中國(guó)的方針，即使這樣會(huì)在短期內(nèi)傷害美國(guó)企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者。

On Wednesday, Congress passed legislation that will strengthen national security-related checks on Chinese investment in the United States, a move that is also aimed at curbing China’s ability to capture valuable American technology. 周三，國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)立法，加強(qiáng)對(duì)中國(guó)在美投資的相關(guān)國(guó)家安全檢查，此舉亦旨在遏制中國(guó)獲取有價(jià)值的美國(guó)技術(shù)的能力。

The Americans and the Chinese have been carrying out back-channel talks over how to resolve their differences, but both sides remain hesitant to embrace more formal negotiations. At present, the discussion is mostly centered on whether more formal talks should resume. 美中一直在就如何解決分歧進(jìn)行非官方渠道談判，但雙方仍在猶豫是否接受更為正式的談判。目前，討論主要集中在是否應(yīng)恢復(fù)更正式的會(huì)談。

Mr. Mnuchin spoke casually with the Chinese delegation at the Group of 20 summit meeting last week and said he had been in touch with Liu He, a high-ranking Chinese official charged with negotiating with the United States, to see if he would be at the meeting. However, China decided not to send its most senior officials to the meeting, so no bilateral discussion was held, Mr. Mnuchin said. 在上周舉行的20國(guó)集團(tuán)(Group of 20)首腦會(huì)議上，馬努欽與中國(guó)代表團(tuán)進(jìn)行了隨意的交談，并表示他和負(fù)責(zé)與美方談判的中國(guó)高級(jí)官員劉鶴保持著聯(lián)系，看他是否參加該會(huì)議。但是，馬努欽說(shuō)，中國(guó)決定不派遣其最高級(jí)別官員參加會(huì)議，因此雙邊討論沒(méi)有發(fā)生。

China has been looking for solutions that would end the trade fight without requiring the country to make policy concessions that might limit the country’s economic growth, according to people familiar with Chinese economic policymaking, who were not authorized to speak publicly. 據(jù)熟悉中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)決策的人士稱，中國(guó)一直尋求在結(jié)束貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的同時(shí)，不用做出可能限制國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的政策讓步，由于未獲公開(kāi)發(fā)言的授權(quán)，此人要求不公開(kāi)姓名。

Mr. Geng said on Wednesday that China remains eager to find a resolution to the dispute. “China has always been suggesting to use dialogue to resolve trade issues — our efforts and our sincerity are clear to be seen by the international world,” he said. “At the same time, we have to emphasize, our dialogue must be based on mutual respect and equality, on rules and on credibility. Unilateral threats and pressure will only lead in the opposite direction from what we wished.” 耿爽于周三表示，中國(guó)仍渴望找到解決爭(zhēng)端的方式。“中方始終主張通過(guò)對(duì)話協(xié)商處理中美之間的貿(mào)易摩擦，我們?yōu)榇俗鞒龅呐驼故镜恼\(chéng)意，國(guó)際社會(huì)非常清楚，”他說(shuō)。“同時(shí)我要強(qiáng)調(diào)，對(duì)話必須建立在相互尊重和平等的基礎(chǔ)上，建立在規(guī)則之上，建立在信用之上。單方面威脅和施壓只會(huì)適得其反。”

While the tariffs are aimed at hurting China, they are also having an impact on American consumers and businesses that rely on products from China’s factories. Farmers and manufacturers, in particular, have complained that they are bearing the brunt of the trade war as China raises the price on imported soybeans and other agriculture products that it typically buys from farms and on materials and products imported by manufacturers to make machinery, clothes and other products. 雖然關(guān)稅旨在傷害中國(guó)，但它們也對(duì)依賴中國(guó)工廠產(chǎn)品的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)產(chǎn)生了影響。特別是農(nóng)民和制造商抱怨他們?cè)谫Q(mào)易戰(zhàn)中首當(dāng)其沖，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)提高了通常從這些農(nóng)場(chǎng)購(gòu)買的進(jìn)口大豆和其他農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格;此外還提高了制造商生產(chǎn)機(jī)械、服裝和其他產(chǎn)品所需的材料和產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格。

“Increasing the size of the tariffs is merely increasing the harm that will be done,” said Matthew Shay, the president of the National Retail Federation. “Tariffs are an unacceptable gamble with the U.S. economy, and the stakes continue to rise with no end in sight.” “增加關(guān)稅規(guī)模只會(huì)增加將要造成的傷害，”全國(guó)零售商聯(lián)合會(huì)(National Retail Federation)主席馬修·謝伊(Matthew Shay)說(shuō)。“對(duì)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō)，關(guān)稅是不可接受的賭博，賭注持續(xù)上升，看不到盡頭。”

Last week, the Trump administration announced it would offer farmers up to $12 billion in subsidies to help compensate them for losses incurred as a result of the trade measures. But to offer the same level of aid to other industries that have been affected by retaliation from abroad, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated in an analysis that it would cost the administration an additional $27 billion. 上周，特朗普政府宣布將向農(nóng)民提供高達(dá)120億美元的補(bǔ)貼，幫助補(bǔ)償他們因貿(mào)易措施而遭受的損失。但是，美國(guó)商會(huì)在一項(xiàng)分析中估計(jì)，要向受海外報(bào)復(fù)影響的其他行業(yè)提供相同水平的援助，政府需要再花270億美元。

A public hearing about the $200 billion list is scheduled for late August, when American companies and individuals will be able to tell the United States trade representative which products they think should be on or off the list. 關(guān)于2000億美元關(guān)稅名單的公開(kāi)聽(tīng)證會(huì)定于8月底舉行，屆時(shí)美國(guó)公司和個(gè)人將能夠告訴美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表，他們認(rèn)為哪些產(chǎn)品應(yīng)該在列表之中或之外。