人民幣貶值能緩解貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)沖擊，但也有代價(jià)

China has a simple weapon it can use to try and foil President Trump’s tariffs.

中國(guó)有一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的武器，可用來(lái)嘗試挫敗特朗普總統(tǒng)的關(guān)稅。

Will it work?

能起作用嗎?

The value of China’s currency, the renminbi, has fallen over 7 percent against the dollar since mid-April, an unusually large move. A lower renminbi makes China’s exports cheaper to foreign buyers, which is particularly helpful right now when Mr. Trump’s tariffs are making many Chinese goods more expensive in the United States market. And since China’s government manages the value of its currency, the decline certainly has its blessing.

自4月中旬以來(lái)，人民幣兌美元的匯率已下跌了逾7%，這是一個(gè)異常大的變化。人民幣貶值使中國(guó)的出口商品對(duì)外國(guó)買家來(lái)說(shuō)更便宜，在特朗普的關(guān)稅讓許多中國(guó)商品在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)上變得更貴的時(shí)候，這一點(diǎn)尤其有幫助。而且，由于中國(guó)政府是人民幣匯率的管理者，人民幣貶值當(dāng)然是得到政府批準(zhǔn)的。

Mr. Trump in a tweet last week said the weakness of the renminbi was eroding the United States’ competitive edge.

特朗普上周發(fā)推說(shuō)，人民幣走弱正在侵蝕美國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。

The Chinese authorities have said they are not deliberately weakening the value of the renminbi to gain an advantage in the trade conflict. And some of the recent decline in the currency may have been driven by economic factors unrelated to trade.

中國(guó)當(dāng)局已表示，他們并不是在故意壓低人民幣的價(jià)值，以在貿(mào)易沖突中獲得優(yōu)勢(shì)。而且，導(dǎo)致人民幣最近貶值的部分原因可能來(lái)自與貿(mào)易無(wú)關(guān)的其他經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。

But the renminbi does not trade freely. Its price must each day rise or fall within a strict range set by the central bank. That range has been steadily lowered. 但是，人民幣不能自由交易。其交易價(jià)只能在央行每日設(shè)定的嚴(yán)格范圍內(nèi)上下波動(dòng)。人民幣的指導(dǎo)價(jià)一直在穩(wěn)步降低。

The recent slide, which took the renminbi back to last year’s levels, began as the trade-war rhetoric was heating up.

人民幣最近的下跌使其回到了去年的水平，下跌是在貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)言論不斷升溫時(shí)開始的。

While a weakening currency can soften economic blows, it also comes with costs.

雖然貨幣走弱可以緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊，但也有代價(jià)。

When China devalued its currency three years ago, fear spread through the country’s economy and markets around the world.

三年前，中國(guó)讓人民幣貶值時(shí)，人們的恐懼曾影響了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，還波及了全球各地的市場(chǎng)。

But for China, letting the renminbi slide may have advantages over other responses to American tariffs. Since China exports far more to the United States than it imports, it cannot respond with tariffs on anywhere near the same amount of American products.

但對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，用人民幣貶值來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)美國(guó)的關(guān)稅，可能比其他方法更具優(yōu)勢(shì)。由于中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)的出口遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)從美國(guó)的進(jìn)口，中國(guó)能征收關(guān)稅的美國(guó)產(chǎn)品價(jià)值，不可能接近美國(guó)能對(duì)中國(guó)征收關(guān)稅的產(chǎn)品價(jià)值。

Devaluations carry a legion of risks, though.

然而，貨幣貶值帶來(lái)大量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

First, it’s not clear the extent to which China might need to let its currency weaken. The decline of the past three months has potentially benefited all of China’s exports to the United States, which last year totaled over $500 billion, and partially offset the impact of the tariffs imposed so far. The United States’ first tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods, which took effect this month, are set at 25 percent.

首先，人們尚不清楚中國(guó)可能需要在多大程度上讓人民幣貶值。過(guò)去三個(gè)月的貶值可能已讓所有的中國(guó)對(duì)美出口受益，去年中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)的出口總額超過(guò)5000億美元，貶值也可能部分抵消了加征關(guān)稅到目前為止所帶來(lái)的影響。美國(guó)從本月開始對(duì)價(jià)值340億美元的首批中國(guó)商品加征25%的關(guān)稅。

Other tariffs proposed by Mr. Trump, on a larger value of goods, would be set much lower at 10 percent. But Chinese policymakers would likely want to avoid a situation in which investors and others believed the level of the currency was directly affected by developments in the trade war.

特朗普已提出要對(duì)更大范圍的中國(guó)產(chǎn)品加征關(guān)稅，但加征的幅度較低，只有10%。但中國(guó)的政策制定者們可能會(huì)希望避免一種情況，那就是讓投資者和其他人認(rèn)為，匯率水平直接受貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的影響。

And a big slide could hurt China.

而且，貨幣大幅貶值可能會(huì)給中國(guó)帶來(lái)傷害。

A nose-dive in the renminbi would come at a difficult time for the Chinese economy. A dizzying rise in borrowing has driven a considerable portion of China’s growth. The government, fearing that some borrowers will have problems repaying the debt, has tried to restrain borrowing. But such limits can also slow the economy, which is why some constraints were recently loosened.

如果人民幣大幅貶值，會(huì)發(fā)生在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨艱難的時(shí)刻。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相當(dāng)一部分是靠令人目眩的借貸增長(zhǎng)。政府擔(dān)心一些借款者將在債務(wù)償還上出問(wèn)題，因此試圖限制借貸。但這種限制也會(huì)減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，這就是為什么政府最近放松了一些限制。

Fears about China’s debts were on the rise in 2015 when the government carried out a surprise devaluation.

2015年，當(dāng)人們對(duì)中國(guó)債務(wù)的擔(dān)憂有所增長(zhǎng)時(shí)，中國(guó)政府出人意料地開始讓貨幣貶值。

Individuals and companies in China dumped renminbi and bought other currencies, to protect their wealth against further decreases in the value of the Chinese currency. The selling, known as capital flight, suggested that the Chinese had little faith in their own economy, and raised questions about the Chinese central bank’s handling of the devaluation. The other big fear at the time was that the prices of Chinese goods in other countries would fall, forcing producers there to also cut their prices and hurt the wider economy in the process.

為保護(hù)自己的財(cái)富不受人民幣進(jìn)一步貶值的影響，中國(guó)的個(gè)人和企業(yè)紛紛拋售人民幣，買入其他貨幣。這種被稱為資本外逃的拋售表明，中國(guó)人對(duì)本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)缺乏信心，并對(duì)中國(guó)央行讓人民幣貶值的做法有疑問(wèn)。當(dāng)時(shí)的另一個(gè)重大擔(dān)憂是，中國(guó)產(chǎn)品在其他國(guó)家會(huì)降價(jià)，迫使其他國(guó)家的生產(chǎn)商也紛紛降價(jià)，從而在這個(gè)過(guò)程中給更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)?yè)p害。

China imposed new “capital controls” that stanched the capital flight, and a pick up in the global economy and prices alleviated the concern about cheaper Chinese goods. The added controls and the fact that the global economy is in somewhat better health may allow China to do another devaluation without creating as many jitters. But it would still be a hard task to carry out, in part because individuals and firms find ways around the rules.

中國(guó)采取了新的“資本管制”措施，遏制了資本外逃，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和價(jià)格的回升緩解了人們對(duì)中國(guó)商品變得更便宜的擔(dān)憂?，F(xiàn)有的資本管制措施，以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況正在好轉(zhuǎn)的事實(shí)，也許會(huì)允許中國(guó)再次讓人民幣貶值，而不至于引發(fā)太多的不安情緒。但這仍將是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)，部分原因是個(gè)人和公司能找到繞過(guò)管制的方法。

“Carrying out a controlled depreciation is one of the most difficult maneuvers a central bank can pull off,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “China, through using capital controls and its reserves, could pull it off again, but there is a risk that a weaker currency is taken as evidence that China can’t assure financial stability.”

“在央行能夠?qū)嵤┑牟呗灾?，貨幣的受控貶值是最為棘手的一項(xiàng)，”美國(guó)外交關(guān)系委員會(huì)高級(jí)研究員布拉德·塞策(Brad Setser)說(shuō)。“中國(guó)靠資本管制和外匯儲(chǔ)備也許能再次成功做到，但一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，人們會(huì)把人民幣走弱視為中國(guó)不能保障金融穩(wěn)定的證據(jù)。”

And the factors that perhaps slowed the selling of the renminbi no longer exist. Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, notes that the dollar weakened substantially in 2017, which, he says, helped stabilize the value of the renminbi.

而且，可能緩解人民幣拋售的因素已不復(fù)存在。國(guó)際金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅賓·布魯克斯(Robin Brooks)指出，美元曾在2017年大幅走弱，這對(duì)穩(wěn)定人民幣的價(jià)值有所幫助。

“If the dollar picks up again, it is an open question how well capital account restrictions will work to stem the potential capital flight,” Mr. Brooks wrote in an email.

“如果美元重新升值，限制資本賬戶的做法對(duì)有效地遏制潛在的資本外逃會(huì)有多大作用，是一個(gè)尚無(wú)答案的問(wèn)題，”布魯克斯在一封電子郵件中寫道。