中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)如何影響美國(guó)消費(fèi)者？

WASHINGTON — The administration’s trade fight with China may soon be fought in the aisles of Walmart, Best Buy, REI and Costco.

華盛頓——特朗普政府與中國(guó)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能很快將在沃爾瑪(Walmart)、百思買(Best Buy)、REI和好市多(Costco)的通道里展開。

President Trump’s latest round of proposed tariffs on Chinese goods would finally pull American consumers into an escalating trade war that they have, thus far, mostly watched from a distance.

特朗普總統(tǒng)對(duì)中國(guó)商品征收的最近一輪關(guān)稅，終將把迄今還是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)觀望的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者拖進(jìn)一場(chǎng)不斷升級(jí)的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。

Administration officials took pains in their first batch of Chinese tariffs to largely shield consumers from seeing immediate price increases on products they buy. The $34 billion round imposed on July 6 focused largely on goods that businesses purchase, which do not typically appear on store shelves, such as aircraft parts and industrial machinery.

政府官員為設(shè)計(jì)第一批針對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅費(fèi)勁了心機(jī)，主要是避免讓消費(fèi)者立即看到他們購(gòu)買的產(chǎn)品出現(xiàn)價(jià)格上漲。7月6日對(duì)340億美元產(chǎn)品征收的這輪關(guān)稅主要集中在企業(yè)購(gòu)買的商品之內(nèi)，如飛機(jī)零件和工業(yè)機(jī)械，它們通常不會(huì)出現(xiàn)在商店貨架上。

But the list of $200 billion worth of products administration officials proposed hitting with tariffs on Tuesday would push up prices at many American retailers. The tariffs would be lower than the previous round — 10 percent instead of 25 percent — and they still mostly avoid apparel, one of the most visible product lines that Americans buy heavily from China. But they include electronics, food, tools, housewares and a wide range of other consumer goods. The tariffs would not go into effect for several months and may not happen at all if the United States and China are able to resolve their differences.

但是，周二政府官員建議征收關(guān)稅的價(jià)值2000億美元的產(chǎn)品清單將令許多美國(guó)零售商提高價(jià)格。這一次關(guān)稅增加10%而不是25%，低于上一輪，而且仍然大體上避免了服裝類產(chǎn)品，這是美國(guó)人最顯著大量購(gòu)買的中國(guó)產(chǎn)品之一。但這批商品包括電子產(chǎn)品、食品、工具、家居用品和各種其他消費(fèi)品。這批關(guān)稅不會(huì)在幾個(gè)月內(nèi)生效，如果美國(guó)和中國(guó)能夠解決分歧，它可能根本不會(huì)發(fā)生。

Economists say that expansion will drive inflation higher and erode Americans’ purchasing power, potentially hurting economic growth. Inflation is already rising, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, driven largely by energy prices. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.9 percent in June from a year ago, its highest rate of the last six years.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，擴(kuò)大關(guān)稅范圍將令通脹走高，并削弱美國(guó)人的購(gòu)買力，可能會(huì)損害經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。勞工部于周四報(bào)告，目前通貨膨脹率已經(jīng)上升，主要受能源價(jià)格上漲推動(dòng)。6月份消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)較去年同期上漲2.9%，為過(guò)去六年來(lái)的最高水平。

The rate is lower — 2.3 percent — for core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices. Home furnishing prices have barely risen at all over the last year, and prices for information technology hardware and services have fallen by 2.3 percent in that time.

核心通脹率(不包括能源和食品價(jià)格)則降低了2.3%。去年全年，家居用品價(jià)格幾乎沒有上漲，信息技術(shù)硬件和服務(wù)的價(jià)格下降了2.3%。

But retail groups say a prolonged trade war could accelerate price increases on a wide range of consumer goods, giving Americans sticker shock on some of their favorite items.

但零售業(yè)組織表示，長(zhǎng)期貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)可能加速各種消費(fèi)品的價(jià)格上漲，美國(guó)人會(huì)對(duì)他們喜愛的一些商品的價(jià)格感到震驚。

“You keep adding tariffs upon tariffs,” said Alex Boian, vice president for government affairs at the Outdoor Industry Association, whose members include such recreation titans as North Face and Patagonia, “and it really is difficult to see a way that this does not hit retail prices.”

“關(guān)稅一層層不斷增加，”戶外行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)(Outdoor Industry Association)負(fù)責(zé)政府事務(wù)的副會(huì)長(zhǎng)亞歷克斯·博伊安(Alex Boian)說(shuō)，該協(xié)會(huì)成員包括北面(North Face)和巴塔哥尼亞(Patagonia)這樣的休閑娛樂產(chǎn)品巨頭，“很難看到不影響零售價(jià)的出路。”

The latest tariff list includes several mainstay products of the outdoor industry, such as travel bags, backpacks and the knit fabric used in fleece vests. It also includes dog collars, sledgehammers, saw blades, baseball mitts, ski gloves, toilet paper, art supplies, ceramic tiles, windshield glass and antiques that are more than 100 years old.

最新的關(guān)稅清單包括戶外行業(yè)的幾種重要產(chǎn)品，如旅行包、背包和羊毛馬甲中使用的針織面料。該清單還包括狗項(xiàng)圈、大錘、鋸條、棒球手套、滑雪手套、衛(wèi)生紙、美術(shù)用品、瓷磚、擋風(fēng)玻璃和超過(guò)100年歷史的古董。

There are also seemingly random — and likely not household — products on the list, like bovine semen and horsehair.

名單上還有一些產(chǎn)品似乎是隨意添加上去的——不像是家居用品——如牛精液和馬毛。

More than 1,000 of the 6,000 items on the list are chemicals, according to an analysis by Panjiva. Nearly 1,000 more are food products, including vegetables like cabbage, kale, carrots and beets and hundreds of types of fish. Many of those fish, such as Alaskan pollock, are caught elsewhere and processed in China.

根據(jù)磐聚網(wǎng)(Panjiva)的分析，名單上的6000件物品中有1000多件是化學(xué)品。還有近1000種食品，包括卷心菜、羽衣甘藍(lán)、胡蘿卜和甜菜等蔬菜，以及數(shù)百種魚類。阿拉斯加鱈魚等許多魚類是在世界其他地方捕獲，在中國(guó)進(jìn)行加工。

In dollar terms, the items most likely to rattle American consumers are computers and couches. The Panjiva analysis shows that $50 billion worth of goods subject to tariffs are electronics, including $17.4 billion in PC components and $5.2 billion in desktop computers. Nearly $30 billion worth of the products are furniture. In addition, the administration will soon begin imposing 25 percent tariffs on more than $3 billion worth of semiconductors, potentially driving up computer prices even more.

從價(jià)格角度，最有可能驚動(dòng)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的是電腦和沙發(fā)。磐聚網(wǎng)的分析顯示，價(jià)值500億美元受關(guān)稅影響的商品是電子產(chǎn)品，其中包括174億美元的電腦組件和52億美元的臺(tái)式電腦，還有價(jià)值近300億美元的產(chǎn)品是家具。此外，政府將很快開始對(duì)超過(guò)30億美元的半導(dǎo)體征收25%的關(guān)稅，這可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步提高計(jì)算機(jī)價(jià)格。

Buying a new PC or sofa is a major purchase for most Americans, and a 10 percent tariff could force many consumers to seek out cheaper brands or delay the purchase. It seems unlikely that stores will absorb the import taxes by accepting lower profit margins. But American consumers might not have much choice but to pay them: For nearly $100 billion of the products targeted, Panjiva estimates, China supplies more than half of the imports that Americans buy.

購(gòu)買新電腦或沙發(fā)對(duì)于大多數(shù)美國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō)是一大筆開支，10%的關(guān)稅可能迫使許多消費(fèi)者尋找更便宜的品牌或推遲購(gòu)買。商店似乎不太可能通過(guò)降低利潤(rùn)來(lái)吸收進(jìn)口稅。但美國(guó)消費(fèi)者可能別無(wú)選擇，只能付錢給他們：據(jù)磐聚網(wǎng)估計(jì)，在近1000億美元的關(guān)稅目標(biāo)產(chǎn)品中，中國(guó)供應(yīng)的產(chǎn)品占美國(guó)人購(gòu)買量的一半以上。

As the tariffs expand to cover roughly half of all Chinese goods exported to the United States, consumers will start seeing price increases on store shelves, said Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級(jí)研究員瑪麗·洛夫利(Mary Lovely)表示，隨著關(guān)稅擴(kuò)大到約一半出口到美國(guó)的中國(guó)商品，消費(fèi)者將開始在商店貨架上看到價(jià)格上漲。

“It is possible that they can scoot around some of the effect on consumers, but it gets increasingly difficult,” she said. “It also gets further and further away from the stated rationale of the tariffs, which is to hit high-tech products.”

“它們可能會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)者產(chǎn)生一些影響，但局面會(huì)變得越來(lái)越困難，”她說(shuō)。“它也越來(lái)越遠(yuǎn)離關(guān)稅所宣稱的理由，即打擊中國(guó)的高科技產(chǎn)品。”

The National Retail Federation said in a statement on Tuesday that the threat posed by tariffs to the American economy “is less about a question of ‘if’ and more about ‘when’ and ‘how bad.’”

全美零售聯(lián)合會(huì)(The National Retail Federation)于周二在一份聲明中表示，關(guān)稅對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成的威脅“不是關(guān)于‘會(huì)否’的問(wèn)題，而是關(guān)于‘何時(shí)’和‘有多糟’的問(wèn)題。”

The trade group said that the sheer scope of the tariffs “make it inconceivable that American consumers will dodge this tax increase as prices of everyday products will be forced to rise.” 該貿(mào)易團(tuán)體表示，關(guān)稅的范圍之大“使美國(guó)消費(fèi)者無(wú)法回避這種增稅，因?yàn)槿粘．a(chǎn)品的價(jià)格將被迫上漲。”

Anyone who has tried to buy a washing machine this year knows how fast tariffs can translate to price hikes. The Trump administration imposed tariffs on imported washing machines, of up to 50 percent, in January. Since then, laundry equipment prices have jumped 17 percent, according to Labor Department data.

任何今年想要購(gòu)買洗衣機(jī)的人都知道，關(guān)稅可以快速轉(zhuǎn)化為價(jià)格上漲。特朗普政府在1月份對(duì)進(jìn)口洗衣機(jī)征收高達(dá)50%的關(guān)稅。根據(jù)勞工部的數(shù)據(jù)，從那時(shí)起，洗衣設(shè)備價(jià)格上漲了17%。

Economists warn that a batch of similar price spikes could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to maintain a gradual pace of interest rate increases, by juicing inflation more than economists had expected. Rising prices would cut into Americans’ purchasing power, which has remained an engine of growth in the recovery from the great recession.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家警告說(shuō)，一批類似的價(jià)格飆升可能會(huì)給美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)維持逐步加息的努力制造困難，因?yàn)橥浡矢哂诮?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期。價(jià)格上漲將削弱美國(guó)人的購(gòu)買力，而購(gòu)買力仍然是經(jīng)濟(jì)從大衰退中復(fù)蘇的增長(zhǎng)引擎。

“Tariffs are just a real income hit to consumers,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. “There’s no question that these tariffs will dampen growth.”

“關(guān)稅會(huì)給消費(fèi)者帶來(lái)真正的收入損失，”萬(wàn)神殿宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家伊恩·謝潑德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，“毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，這些關(guān)稅將抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。”