如何與中國爭奪未來？靠特朗普關(guān)稅可能沒用

WASHINGTON — Behind the White House’s plan to punish China with tariffs and other restrictions is a growing concern that Beijing is using industrial policy to dominate industries of the future, at the expense of the United States and other nations.

華盛頓——在白宮計劃用關(guān)稅和其他限制規(guī)定懲罰中國的背后，人們愈發(fā)擔心北京方面正在利用產(chǎn)業(yè)政策來主宰未來行業(yè)，而代價則是犧牲美國和其他國家的利益。

On Thursday, the Trump administration laid out its case in a 35-page report entitled “How China’s Economic Aggression Threatens the Technologies and Intellectual Property of the United States and the World.” It exhaustively details the steps Chinese officials take to protect and promote their domestic industries and disadvantage foreign competitors, including the use of government subsidies, cyberespionage and forced intellectual property transfers to Chinese companies from American and other foreign firms.

周四，特朗普政府在一份長達35頁、題為《中國的經(jīng)濟侵略如何威脅美國及世界的技術(shù)和知識產(chǎn)權(quán)》(How China’s Economic Aggression Threatens the Technologies and Intellectual Property of the United States and the World)的報告中闡明了這一情況。該報告詳盡列舉了中國官員為保護和促進國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)，并使競爭對手居于劣勢所采取的措施，包括利用政府補貼、網(wǎng)絡間諜活動，以及強迫美國和其他外國公司向中國企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)讓知識產(chǎn)權(quán)。

The United States is trying to derail China’s dominance by punishing Beijing. But it has yet to detail how it plans to build America’s dominance in industries that will power economic and job growth in the future, or cultivate what the administration officials call the “crown jewels of American technology and intellectual property.”

美國正試圖通過懲罰北京來破壞中國的優(yōu)勢，但尚未詳細說明它將計劃如何在未來推動經(jīng)濟和就業(yè)增長的行業(yè)中建立美國的主導地位，或是如何培育出被政府官員稱為“美國技術(shù)和知識產(chǎn)權(quán)皇冠上的明珠”。

Speaking with reporters on Tuesday, a senior administration official said Mr. Trump’s tariffs are designed to benefit American high-tech industries from the sort of “predation” China has used in the past.

周二，一名政府高級官員在接受記者采訪時表示，特朗普的關(guān)稅旨在通過中國曾使用過的“掠奪”行為來惠及美國的高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)。

Many economists say those steps are insufficient — and possibly counterproductive — to position American companies to compete in emerging, high-tech, globalized industries. They say the administration needs a proactive strategy to bolster American innovation and technology. That includes investing in federal research and development spending, worker skills and attracting more high-caliber foreign students to American graduate programs and fostering advanced industries such as biodefense and artificial intelligence.

許多經(jīng)濟學家認為，這些措施不足以讓美國公司在新興的全球化高科技行業(yè)中站得住腳，可能還會起反作用。他們表示，政府需要積極的戰(zhàn)略來支持美國的創(chuàng)新和技術(shù)，包括投資聯(lián)邦研發(fā)支出、工人技能，并吸引更多高素質(zhì)外國學生參與美國研究生項目，打造生物防衛(wèi)和人工智能等先進行業(yè)。

Whether industries like semiconductors thrive going forward in the United States “will depend not on America’s success in curbing China’s progress, but rather on its ability to sustain and support innovation by U.S. companies,” Laura D’Andrea Tyson, a former top economic adviser to President Bill Clinton, wrote this week.

未來美國的半導體等行業(yè)能否茁壯成長“并不取決于美國能否成功遏制中國的進步，而在于美國維系和支持美國公司創(chuàng)新的能力”，曾任比爾·克林頓(Bill Clinton)總統(tǒng)高級經(jīng)濟顧問的勞拉·丹德烈亞·泰森(Laura D'Andrea Tyson)本周寫道。

Instead of targeting innovation, the administration’s policy efforts to date have focused largely on supporting legacy industries like coal mining and steel production, which have shed hundreds of thousands of jobs in recent decades, and which few economists expect to generate significant job growth in the years to come.

迄今為止，政府的政策措施主要集中支持煤炭開采和鋼鐵制造等傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)，而非創(chuàng)新。這些行業(yè)在近幾十年內(nèi)已經(jīng)減少了數(shù)十萬個工作崗位，也沒什么經(jīng)濟學家預計這些行業(yè)會在未來幾年帶來顯著的就業(yè)增長。

China, meanwhile, targets support to companies that demonstrate a winning strategy for growth. The government forces subsidized and protected firms to compete on the global marketplace, shutting down those that are unable to perform, said Ann Harrison, an economist who specializes in industrial policy at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

與此同時，中國的目標則是支持表現(xiàn)出了成功增長戰(zhàn)略的企業(yè)。賓夕法尼亞大學(University of Pennsylvania)沃頓商學院(Wharton School)專攻產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的經(jīng)濟學家安·哈里森(Ann Harrison)說，中國政府強制受資助和受保護的企業(yè)參與全球市場競爭，而那些沒有業(yè)績的企業(yè)則會被關(guān)閉。

“Firms are supported, but if it’s not working, they cut it out,” she said. “That’s really different from Trump’s industrial policy. What we’re really doing now is, we’re not supporting emerging industries. We’re bailing out failing industries.”

“公司會得到支持，但如果沒有績效，他們就會把它裁掉，”她說。“這和特朗普的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策非常不同。我們現(xiàn)在在做的其實不是在支持新興行業(yè)，而是在救助衰退行業(yè)。”

Many experts worry the United States is not doing enough to help its own advanced industries compete — not just against China, but the rest of the world.

許多專家擔心美國所采取的行動不足以幫助本國的先進行業(yè)參與競爭——不只是與中國競爭，而是與世界競爭。

Experts in artificial intelligence say the administration should push for more investment in academic and government research, instead of cutting back on scientific research across the government. They say administration immigration policies have spooked many foreign-born artificial intelligence researchers based in the United States.

人工智能領(lǐng)域的專家表示，政府應增進學術(shù)和政府研究的投資，而不是在政府內(nèi)削減科學研究。他們表示，政府的移民政策已經(jīng)嚇到了許多在外國出生但是在美國工作的人工智能研究人員。

Canada, South Korea, France and Britain have ramped up government spending in an effort to ensure that they retain and attract top talent and promote artificial intelligence research. China has unveiled a plan to become the world leader in the field and create a domestic industry worth $150 billion by 2030, committing billions of dollars to the effort.

加拿大、韓國、法國和英國為確保能留住并吸引頂尖人才、促進人工智能研究，都已加大了政府開支。中國也已經(jīng)公布了一項成為該領(lǐng)域世界領(lǐng)導者的計劃，將在2030年前創(chuàng)造出價值1500億美元的國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)，并將為此投入數(shù)十億美元。

At the tail end of the Obama administration, the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the White House began to address the industry’s development. But after Mr. Trump took office, the office’s work in that area seemed to stagnate. The administration has yet to name a director for the office, which is currently run by its deputy chief technology officer, Michael Kratsios, who used to work with Silicon Valley venture capitalist Peter Thiel. It recently convened a meeting of companies working in artificial intelligence at the White House, in which Mr. Kratsios indicated the administration would take a hands-off approach to the industry’s development.

在奧巴馬政府的末期，白宮的科學和技術(shù)政策辦公室(Office of Science and Technology Policy)開始關(guān)注科技行業(yè)的發(fā)展。但特朗普上臺后，該辦公室在這個領(lǐng)域的工作似乎停滯不前。特朗普尚未任命該辦公室的主管。目前，該辦公室由副首席技術(shù)官邁克爾·克拉齊奧斯(Michael Kratsios)管理，他曾與硅谷風險投資家彼得·蒂爾(Peter Thiel)共事。前不久，該辦公室召集人工智能公司在白宮舉行了一次會議，克拉齊奧斯在會上表示，政府將對該行業(yè)的發(fā)展采取不干涉的態(tài)度。

“If we don’t have the government setting big goals, then we will just see business as usual: The private sector will continue to optimize for its own problems, pulling people out of universities and not really giving back to government because that is not its priority,” said Jack Clark, who oversees policy for OpenAI, an independent artificial intelligence lab based in San Francisco. “Academia will get left behind and the government will have no clear mandate in this very important area.”

“如果政府不設立宏大的目標，那么，該行業(yè)的情況會一如往常：私營部門將繼續(xù)重點解決自己的問題，把人才從大學吸引出來，不回饋政府，因為那不是政府的重點考慮事項，”舊金山獨立人工智能實驗室OpenAI的政策主管杰克·克拉克(Jack Clark)說。“學術(shù)界將被拋在后面，政府在這個非常重要的領(lǐng)域?qū)]有明確的授權(quán)。”

The United States has a long history of industrial policy, including the Obama administration’s bailout of the automotive industry during the financial crisis and its subsequent efforts to foster advanced manufacturing.

美國的工業(yè)政策歷史悠久，奧巴馬政府在金融危機期間對汽車行業(yè)進行了救助，隨后又為培育先進制造業(yè)做出了努力。

“We sought to have a strategic focus,” said Gene Sperling, who directed the National Economic Council for much of the Obama administration, “that did accept that there were strong positive impacts for innovation and jobs in not just protecting the manufacturing base — as was done with the auto rescue — but making the U.S. the attractive place to build what comes next in manufacturing as well.”

“我們希望有一個戰(zhàn)略重點，”在奧巴馬政府的大部分時間領(lǐng)導國家經(jīng)濟委員會(National Economic Council)的吉恩·斯珀林(Gene Sperling)說。“它的確會對創(chuàng)新和工作機會產(chǎn)生強烈的積極影響，不僅能保護制造業(yè)根基——例如對汽車行業(yè)的救助——而且能使美國成為吸引未來制造業(yè)的地方。”

Policymakers in Washington have a large array of tools to tilt the economic playing field to help particular industries. Mr. Trump signed a tax law in December that reduced the corporate tax rate to 21 percent, a move that disproportionately helped banks and real estate companies. He has relaxed regulations for fossil fuel exploration and other industries. But he has not singled out emerging growth industries for support, as Mr. Obama did.

華盛頓的政策制定者擁有大量工具，可以改變經(jīng)濟環(huán)境，幫助特定的行業(yè)。去年12月，特朗普簽署了一項稅法，將公司稅稅率降至21%，這項政策對銀行和房地產(chǎn)公司特別有利。他放松了對化石燃料勘探等行業(yè)的監(jiān)管。但他并沒有像奧巴馬那樣，挑出打算支持的新興增長行業(yè)。

That is not China’s approach.

中國的做法不是這樣的。

Trump administration officials outlined 53 examples of China’s “economic aggression” that they contend have lifted the Chinese to domination of traditional manufacturing and positioned China to beat the world in industries like artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles and blockchain technology.

特朗普政府的官員們列舉了中國“經(jīng)濟侵略”的53個例子。他們認為，這些侵略行為使中國在傳統(tǒng)制造業(yè)中占據(jù)了主導地位，并使中國在人工智能、自動駕駛汽車和區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)等行業(yè)立于不敗之地。

The administration is trying to counter that rise with tariffs, and it also supports a bipartisan bill moving through Congress that would give the federal government greater leeway to block Chinese investments in American companies, a practice that the administration official called “colonization by purchase.”

特朗普政府正試圖通過提高關(guān)稅來抵制中國的上升趨勢，并支持國會通過一項兩黨共同提出的法案，該法案將賦予聯(lián)邦政府更大的回旋余地，阻止中國對美國企業(yè)進行投資。特朗普政府官員稱，中國的投資是“通過收購進行殖民”。

Many economists and lawmakers applaud the administration’s efforts to crack down on Chinese intellectual property theft.

許多經(jīng)濟學家和議員贊賞特朗普政府打擊中國盜竊知識產(chǎn)權(quán)行為的努力。

Fighting Chinese intellectual property theft is critical to supporting American industries. “It is something that is very real,” said Chang-Tai Hsieh, an economist who focuses on growth and development issues at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. “It happens all the time. It is generally viewed by many of these firms as just the way you do business in China.”

打擊中國的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)盜竊行為對支持美國的產(chǎn)業(yè)至關(guān)重要。“這是非常真實的事，”芝加哥大學(University of Chicago)布思商學院(Booth School of Business)關(guān)注增長和發(fā)展問題的經(jīng)濟學家謝昌泰(Chang-Tai Hsieh)說，“這種事一直在發(fā)生。這些公司中的很多人普遍認為，這是在中國做生意的方式。”

But he said that fight may be best waged in American courtrooms, not trade negotiations, and that the administration may have missed a potential victory on that front by recently deciding to soften penalties on Chinese smartphone maker ZTE.

但他表示，這種斗爭最好在美國的法庭上進行，而不是通過貿(mào)易談判，特朗普政府前不久決定減輕對中國智能手機制造商中興通訊的處罰，可能錯失了在這條陣線上獲勝的機會。

The Commerce Department had previously barred the company from selling into the United States for seven years because of violations of American sanctions. That earlier decision, Mr. Hsieh said, had Chinese companies “terrified.”

此前，美國商務部曾因違反美國制裁規(guī)定，禁止該公司在七年內(nèi)向美國銷售產(chǎn)品。謝昌泰表示，早前的這項決定令中國企業(yè)“感到恐懼”。