十大要點詳解“特金會”：發(fā)生了什么，為什么重要

Even the most informed observer might struggle to know what to make of the summit meeting between President Trump and Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

即便是最見多識廣的觀察人士，可能也難以理解特朗普總統(tǒng)和朝鮮領導人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)的這次峰會。

Colorful theatrics, such as a four-minute video that Mr. Trump showed Mr. Kim, gave the event an air of surrealism. Expectations ranged wildly, with Mr. Trump promising the deal of the century and many analysts fearing a blowup similar to what happened at last’s week’s Group of 7 meeting in Canada.

五彩繽紛的表演，比如特朗普給金正恩看的一段時長四分鐘的視頻，給這場活動增添了一層超現(xiàn)實主義色彩。外界的期望各不相同，特朗普承諾達成世紀協(xié)議，很多分析人士擔心會像上周在加拿大的七國集團(Group of 7)峰會上一樣爆發(fā)爭吵。

And Mr. Trump’s habit of making misleading statements, along with his record of defying norms, can make it difficult to parse which of the summit’s outcomes matter and which don’t, which bring Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim closer to their respective goals and which move them further away.

特朗普有發(fā)表誤導性言論的習慣，并且有打破常規(guī)的前例。這讓外界難以從語言表述上分析會談結(jié)果中哪些重要，哪些不重要，哪些會讓特朗普和金正恩離各自的目標更近，哪些讓他們離目標更遠。

Here, then, is a simple breakdown of 10 major takeaways from the meeting and why they matter.

下面對此次會談的十大要點，以及它們的重要性進行了簡單分析。

What Happened and Didn’t

發(fā)生了什么、沒發(fā)生什么

(1) Almost any talks between the United States and North Korea, while those talks are ongoing, significantly reduce the risk of an accidental or unintended slide into war, which could kill millions. The simple act of talking changes North Korean and American behaviors and perceptions in ways that make conflict far less likely. That’s a big deal.

(1)美國與朝鮮之間的幾乎任何會談，都會大幅降低意外或無意中引爆戰(zhàn)爭的風險，哪怕這些談判目前尚在進行中。戰(zhàn)爭可能會造成成百上千萬人喪生。對話這個簡單的動作會改變朝鮮和美國的行為與看法，大大降低發(fā)生沖突的可能性。這一點非常重要。

(2) The joint statement signed by Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim contains polite diplomatic platitudes but is otherwise largely empty. Among adversaries, this sort of statement is a common, low-pressure way to keep talks going. It doesn’t resolve any issues, but it keeps the countries engaged.

(2)特朗普和金正恩簽署的聯(lián)合聲明中有禮節(jié)性的外交套話，但除此之外都是空談。在對手之間，這種聲明很常見，是為了讓談判繼續(xù)下去的一種低壓方式。它不解決任何問題，但會讓相關國家保持接觸。

(3) Later, Mr. Trump made a concession with significance that is real but easy to overstate: The United States will suspend its joint military exercises with South Korea. Mr. Trump was setting a policy that analysts refer to as “freeze for freeze,” in which the United States freezes the exercises and North Korea freezes its weapons tests. It’s meant to reduce tensions and create space for more meaningful concessions. Though not all analysts support such a policy, it is a mainstream idea and hardly radical.

(3)隨后，特朗普做出了一個讓步：美國將暫停與韓國的聯(lián)合軍演。這個讓步的重要意義是實實在在的，但容易被夸大。特朗普制定了一項被分析人士稱作“凍結(jié)換凍結(jié)”的政策，即美國凍結(jié)演習，朝鮮凍結(jié)武器試驗。這是為了緩和緊張關系，為更有意義的讓步創(chuàng)造空間。盡管并不是所有分析人士都支持這項政策，但這是一種主流觀點，算不上激進。

(4) There is one asterisk to the otherwise modest policy implications. South Korean officials expressed surprise at Mr. Trump’s promise to suspend joint military exercises, suggesting that Mr. Trump may have made the concession on South Korea’s behalf without their consent or advance knowledge. The South Korean leadership will probably swallow their pride and accept it, but Mr. Trump’s public breach of the alliance sends the message that South Koreans cannot always count on the United States. It also offers North Korea the tantalizing prospect of widening any divide between Washington and Seoul.

(4)這項政策的影響本來不大，但現(xiàn)在要加個注解。韓國官員對特朗普承諾暫停聯(lián)合軍演表示驚訝，這表明特朗普可能未得到韓國的同意或提前告知，就代表韓國做出了這個讓步。韓國領導人可能會放下面子接受這個決定，但特朗普公開背棄美韓同盟的做法傳遞出了一個信息：韓國不能總是指望美國。此事也給朝鮮提供了一個擴大華盛頓與首爾之間的一切分歧的誘人前景。

The Theater That Mattered

一個重要場合

(5) The United States staged the summit meeting in a way that handed Mr. Kim some symbolic but meaningful concessions. At the North Koreans’ request, the two countries and their leaders were presented as equals — elevating Mr. Kim from global pariah to a superpower’s peer. Their meeting was given pomp and ceremony at points verging on that of a royal wedding. Because Mr. Kim’s legitimacy is among his greatest vulnerabilities at home and abroad, this staging was a big gift to him.

(5)美國對此次會談的安排，讓金正恩得到了一些象征性的，但也頗有意義的讓步。應朝鮮的要求，兩國及其領導人被描述成平等的對話主體，金正恩從被國際社會唾棄，躍升為與超級大國地位相當。此次會談的隆重程度和禮節(jié)有時接近皇室婚禮。因為合法性是金正恩在國內(nèi)外最大的軟肋之一，這種安排對他來說是一份大禮。

(6) It costs the United States little to make those concessions. Still, they can be given away only once, and the United States received relatively little from North Korea in return. Analysts broadly consider this a lost opportunity to extract more meaningful concessions from North Korea, such as partial disarmament or intrusive nuclear inspections.

(6)美國做出這些讓步的代價很小。但這種情況可能只會發(fā)生一次，美國從朝鮮得到的回報相對較少。分析人士普遍認為，美國失去了這次讓朝鮮做出更有意義的讓步的機會，比如部分裁軍或侵入式核檢查。

(7) The meeting sends important messages to other adversarial states. Mr. Kim appears to have forced Mr. Trump to the table by developing nuclear weapons and missiles that can reach the United States. But Mr. Kim’s human rights record, considered among the world’s worst, did not appear to be an issue. Mr. Trump even suggested that North Korea could become a major tourist destination, almost exactly one year after an American tourist, Otto Warmbier, died of what appeared to be torture endured while in North Korean custody.

(7)此次會談給其他敵對國家發(fā)出了重要的信號。金正恩似乎通過發(fā)展能夠抵達美國的核武器和導彈，迫使特朗普坐到了談判桌前。但金正恩的人權紀錄——被認為是全世界最惡劣的——似乎并不是問題。特朗普甚至暗示朝鮮可能會成為一個熱門的旅游目的地。而幾乎就在一年前，美國游客奧托·瓦姆比爾(Otto Warmbier)去世，死因似乎是在被朝鮮關押期間受到嚴刑拷打。

The Bigger Picture

更大的圖景

(8) If the point of the meeting was to bring the world demonstrably closer to resolving the North Korea crisis, then that didn’t happen. North Korea took no steps, even rhetorical, toward disarming. The United States also made no concrete, long-term changes; the freeze on exercises can be easily reversed. The meeting fell far short of Mr. Trump’s lofty promises of North Korean denuclearization. But it also averted analysts’ fears that Mr. Trump might make an outright withdrawal of American troops from South Korea or blow up at Mr. Kim.

(8)如果這次會談的重點是明顯縮短世界與解決朝鮮危機之間的距離，那么這一幕并沒有發(fā)生。朝鮮沒有采取裁軍措施，甚至沒有發(fā)表相關言論。美國也沒有做出具體的長期改變。凍結(jié)演習的決定輕而易舉就能推翻。會談遠沒有兌現(xiàn)特朗普所說的朝鮮無核化的宏偉承諾。但也沒有發(fā)生分析人士所擔心的特朗普可能會徹底從韓國撤軍，或炮轟金正恩的一幕。

(9) Mr. Trump’s foreign policy actions elsewhere may limit what he can accomplish with North Korea. By tearing up the Iran nuclear deal despite sustained indication of Iranian compliance, and by reneging on agreements even with long-term allies, the United States has deepened suspicion that it cannot be trusted to make arms-control agreements. So don’t expect talks to produce much of verifiable substance.

(9)特朗普在其他地方的外交政策行動可能會制約他在朝鮮問題上的成果。盡管有持續(xù)的跡象表明伊朗遵守了協(xié)議，但美國仍將其撕毀。美國甚至還違反了與長期以來的盟友達成的協(xié)議。這些做法加深了外界對美國的懷疑，擔心無法相信美國會達成軍控協(xié)議。因此，不要指望談判能產(chǎn)生很多可驗證的實質(zhì)性結(jié)果。

(10) Still, it’s worth reiterating that first point: Almost any talks, even if they elevate Mr. Kim and grant him concessions for little return, significantly reduce the risk of war. The effect applies only as long as talks continue, so is almost certainly temporary. But as Mr. Trump said in the joint news conference on Tuesday: “If I have to say I’m sitting on a stage with Chairman Kim and that’s going to get us to save 30 million lives, maybe more than that, I’m willing to sit on the stage. I’m willing to travel to Singapore very gladly.”

(10)但有必要重申第一點：幾乎所有談判都會明顯降低戰(zhàn)爭的風險，即使它們抬高了金正恩的地位，并讓他幾乎沒給出什么回報就得到了讓步。這種效果只適用于談判繼續(xù)進行的條件下，因此幾乎可以肯定地說是暫時的。但正如特朗普周二在聯(lián)合新聞發(fā)布會上所說的：“如果我必須說自己和金委員長一起坐在臺上，而這會讓我們挽救3000萬甚至更多人的生命，我愿意坐在臺上。我非常愿意來新加坡。”