奧地利數(shù)學(xué)家算出世界杯冠軍 曾成功預(yù)測西班牙捧杯

四年一屆的世界杯即將到來。哪支球隊(duì)將捧起大力神杯?奧地利數(shù)學(xué)家通過數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)測說，巴西隊(duì)將和德國隊(duì)在決賽相遇。經(jīng)歷了上屆世界杯的慘痛記憶，巴西希望卷土重來，德國則力爭衛(wèi)冕。

熱蘇斯，巴西，現(xiàn)效力于英超曼城隊(duì)。 圖為熱蘇斯(右)在與德國隊(duì)的熱身賽中(2018年3月28日攝)。 新華社記者單宇琦攝

Austrian mathematicians have revealed why you should put your money on either Brazil or Germany for the 2018 World Cup.

奧地利數(shù)學(xué)家解釋了本屆世界杯期間大家應(yīng)該投注給巴西和德國的原因。

The two teams are neck-and-neck favourites to win the tournament, according to a set of millions of calculations based on hundreds of betting odds.

他們根據(jù)數(shù)百萬次基于大量投注賠率的計(jì)算發(fā)現(xiàn)，這兩支球隊(duì)都是奪冠大熱。

Experts said while Brazil have a 16.6 percent probability of winning the title, defending world champions Germany are close behind with a 15.8 percent chance.

專家表示，巴西隊(duì)捧杯幾率為16.6%，衛(wèi)冕冠軍德國隊(duì)緊隨其后，捧杯幾率為15.8%。

The research team has successfully predicted several tournament outcomes in the past, among them the correct world champions Spain in the 2010 World Cup and three out of four semi-finalists in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.

該研究小組成功預(yù)測過幾次杯賽結(jié)果，包括正確預(yù)測了2010年世界杯冠軍西班牙隊(duì)和2014年巴西世界杯三支進(jìn)入半決賽的球隊(duì)。

Researchers at the University of Innsbruck in Austria combined the odds of 26 online bookmakers and betting exchanges with a complex set of statistical models.

奧地利因斯布魯克大學(xué)的研究人員運(yùn)用一套復(fù)雜的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型，對(duì)26個(gè)網(wǎng)上賭注經(jīng)紀(jì)人和博彩交易所的投注賠率進(jìn)行了綜合統(tǒng)計(jì)。

Using these calculations to simulate all possible games and results, Brazil and Germany came out on top more than all other teams.

研究人員利用這些計(jì)算模擬所有可能的比賽及其結(jié)果。巴西和德國奪冠的可能性位居其他所有球隊(duì)之上。

‘The most likely final with a probability of 5.5 percent is also a match between these two teams, giving Brazil the chance to make up for the dramatic semi-final of 2014,’ study coauthor Professor Achim Zeileis said.

研究合著者阿奇姆-澤勒斯教授說：“決賽最有可能在巴西隊(duì)和德國隊(duì)之間展開(5.5%)，讓巴西隊(duì)有機(jī)會(huì)彌補(bǔ)2014年世界杯半決賽遭遇德國隊(duì)時(shí)的慘敗(譯者注：這場比賽中巴西隊(duì)1-7慘敗德國隊(duì))。”

Though a final between the two seems likely, the models were unable to predict which of the teams would lift the trophy.

盡管決賽有可能在巴西隊(duì)和德國隊(duì)之間展開，但模型無法預(yù)測出誰將捧起大力神杯。

Brazil’s probability of winning the final against Germany is just 50.6 percent, leaving the defending champions with a 49.4 percent chance in the final.

巴西隊(duì)?wèi)?zhàn)勝德國隊(duì)的幾率是50.6%，德國隊(duì)?wèi)?zhàn)勝巴西隊(duì)幾率則為49.4%。

Behind the two top favourites Germany and Brazil there were two other teams with a good chance of winning: Spain (12.5 percent) and France (12.1 percent).

奪冠幾率位居巴西隊(duì)和德國隊(duì)之后的是另外兩支球隊(duì)：西班牙隊(duì)(12.5%)和法國隊(duì)(12.1%)。

The most likely semi-final pairings was therefore Brazil vs. France at 9.4 percent and Germany vs. Spain at 9.2 percent.

因此最有可能出現(xiàn)的半決賽對(duì)陣局勢是：巴西隊(duì)對(duì)法國隊(duì)(9.4%)，德國隊(duì)對(duì)西班牙隊(duì)(9.2%)。

Both Brazil and Germany were deemed the more likely winners of these matches.

這兩場比賽中，巴西隊(duì)和德國隊(duì)獲勝幾率都更大。

England was picked out as the seventh most likely team to win, with a probability of 4.9 percent.

英格蘭隊(duì)在獲勝幾率榜單中排名第七(4.9%)。

The bookmakers’ odds saw the host country Russia as the twelfth-best team overall.

根據(jù)賠率計(jì)算，東道主俄羅斯隊(duì)獲勝幾率排在第12位。

While the probability that Russia will reach the quarter-finals was an impressive 28.9 percent, their chances of winning the tournament were just 2.1 percent.

盡管俄羅斯隊(duì)打進(jìn)四分之一決賽的幾率高達(dá)28.9%，但捧杯幾率僅有2.1%。

‘Naturally, the bookmakers want to earn money with their betting offers, and hence they set their odds as realistically as possible, taking into account not only historical data but also the tournament draw and short-term events such as injured players,’ Professor Zeileis said.

澤勒斯教授說：“博彩業(yè)者當(dāng)然想從下注中賺錢，因此他們把賠率設(shè)置得盡可能接近實(shí)際。他們不僅考慮了歷史數(shù)據(jù)，還考慮了比賽抽簽和短期事件，比如傷病運(yùn)動(dòng)員的影響。”

以下是研究人員計(jì)算出的各球隊(duì)獲勝幾率：

1) Brazil – 16.6%

巴西– 16.6%

2) Germany – 15.8%

德國– 15.8%

3) Spain – 12.5%

西班牙– 12.5%

4) France – 12.1%

法國– 12.1%

5) Argentina – 8.4%

阿根廷– 8.4%

6) Belgium – 7.3%

比利時(shí)– 7.3%

7) England – 4.9%

英格蘭– 4.9%

8) Portugal – 3.4%

葡萄牙– 3.4%

9) Uruguay – 2.7%

烏拉圭– 2.7%

10) Croatia – 2.5%

克羅地亞– 2.5%

11) Colombia – 2.2%

哥倫比亞– 2.2%

12) Russia – 2.1%

俄羅斯– 2.1%

13) Poland – 1.5%

波蘭– 1.5%

14) Denmark – 0.9%

丹麥– 0.9%

15) Mexico – 0.8%

墨西哥– 0.8%

16) Switzerland – 0.8%

瑞士– 0.8%

17) Sweden – 0.6%

瑞典– 0.6%

18) Egypt – 0.5%

埃及– 0.5%

19) Serbia – 0.5%

塞爾維亞– 0.5%

20) Senegal – 0.5%

塞內(nèi)加爾– 0.5%

21) Peru – 0.4%

秘魯– 0.4%

22) Nigeria – 0.4%

尼日利亞– 0.4%

23) Iceland – 0.4%

冰島– 0.4%

24) Japan – 0.3%

日本– 0.3%

25) Australia – 0.2%

澳大利亞– 0.2%

26) Morocco – 0.2%

摩洛哥– 0.2%

27) Costa Rica – 0.2%

哥斯達(dá)黎加– 0.2%

28) South Korea – 0.2%

韓國– 0.2%

29) Iran – 0.2%

伊朗– 0.2%

30) Tunisia – 0.1%

突尼斯– 0.1%

31) Saudi Arabia – 0.1%

沙特阿拉伯– 0.1%

32) Panama – 0.1%

巴拿馬– 0.1%