特朗普對“特金會”疑慮漸深
華盛頓——據(jù)政府部門和外國官員稱，唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)已開始逼問助手和盟友是否應(yīng)該冒險繼續(xù)推進(jìn)自己草率同意的歷史性會晤。他越來越擔(dān)心，下個月將在新加坡舉行的與朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的會晤可能會導(dǎo)致政治尷尬。
Trump was both surprised and angered by a statement issued Wednesday by the North’s chief nuclear negotiator, who declared that the country would never trade away its nuclear weapons capability in exchange for economic aid, administration officials said. The statement, while a highly familiar tactic by the North, represented a jarring shift in tone after weeks of conciliatory gestures.
朝鮮首席核談判代表于周三發(fā)表聲明，宣布該國絕不會棄核換取經(jīng)濟(jì)援助。政府官員稱，特朗普對此既震驚又惱怒。該聲明是朝鮮的一種慣常手段，表明朝鮮的口吻在數(shù)周和解姿態(tài)后出現(xiàn)了不和諧的轉(zhuǎn)變。
On Thursday and Friday, Trump peppered aides with questions about the wisdom of proceeding, and on Saturday night he called President Moon Jae-in of South Korea to ask why the North’s public statement seemed to contradict the private assurances that Moon had conveyed after he met Kim Jong Un, the 35-year-old dictator of the North, at the Demilitarized Zone in late April.
周四和周五兩天，特朗普都在不斷地向助手詢問下一步的明智之舉。周六晚上，他致電韓國總統(tǒng)文在寅，詢問為何朝鮮的公開聲明與文在寅4月末在非軍事區(qū)與朝鮮35歲的獨裁者金正恩進(jìn)行會晤后向他傳達(dá)的私下承諾似乎存在矛盾。
The president’s conversation with Moon, which was first reported by The Washington Post, came just three days before the South Korean leader was scheduled to arrive in Washington to meet with Trump on Tuesday. It was a sign of Trump’s discomfort, some officials speculated, that he could not wait to discuss the issue until Moon arrived for his meetings here, though there is no indication that the president is considering pulling out of the North Korea talks.
總統(tǒng)與文在寅的談話最先由《華盛頓郵報》(The Washington Post)報道。本次談話發(fā)生于韓國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人計劃于周二前往華盛頓與特朗普進(jìn)行會晤的三天之前。一些官員猜測，這是特朗普不安的表現(xiàn)，他不愿等到文在寅前來會晤才討論這個問題，不過也沒有跡象表明總統(tǒng)正在考慮退出與朝鮮的會談。
Trump’s aides have grown concerned that the president — who has said that “everyone thinks” he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts — has signaled that he wants the summit meeting too much. The aides also worry that Kim, sensing the president’s eagerness, is prepared to offer assurances that will fade over time.
特朗普的助手越來越擔(dān)心，這位曾說過“每個人都認(rèn)為”他的努力配得上一個諾貝爾和平獎的總統(tǒng)表現(xiàn)得太過于渴望這次會晤了。助手們還擔(dān)心，金正恩察覺到了總統(tǒng)的急切心情，準(zhǔn)備提供無法持久的保證。
Moreover, Trump’s decision this month to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal raises the stakes for the North Korea negotiation. If he emerges with anything less than what President Barack Obama got, which in Iran included the verified shipment of 97 percent of all nuclear material out of the country, it will be hard for Trump to convince anyone other than his base that the negotiation was a success.
此外，特朗普本月決定從2015年伊朗核協(xié)議中退出，抬高了朝鮮會談的風(fēng)險。如果他不能帶著和貝拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)一樣多的東西——在伊朗談判中要求全部核材料的97%通過可核查貨運(yùn)運(yùn)出該國——離開會談，那么對特朗普來說，他將很難說服除了自己的基本盤以外的其他人相信這次談判是一次勝利。
The aides are also concerned about what kind of grasp Trump has on the details of the North Korea program, and what he must insist upon as the key components of denuclearization. Moon and his aides reported that Kim seemed highly conversant with all elements of the program when the two men met, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has made similar comments about Kim, based on his two meetings with him in Pyongyang, the North’s capital.
助手們還擔(dān)心，特朗普對朝鮮核計劃的細(xì)節(jié)有怎樣的把握，以及他必須堅持將什么作為無核化的關(guān)鍵部分。文在寅和他的助手們報告稱，從金正恩與文在寅的會晤可以看出，金似乎對核計劃的所有元素非常熟悉，美國國務(wù)卿邁克·龐皮歐(Mike Pompeo)基于自己與金正恩在朝鮮首都平壤的兩次會晤也對金做出了類似的評價。
But aides who have recently left the administration say Trump has resisted the kind of detailed briefings about enrichment capabilities, plutonium reprocessing, nuclear weapons production and missile programs that Obama and President George W. Bush regularly sat through.
但最近從特朗普政府辭職的助手們表示，特朗普拒絕聽取關(guān)于鈾濃縮能力、钚再加工、核武器生產(chǎn)和導(dǎo)彈計劃的詳細(xì)情況介紹。而奧巴馬和喬治·W·布什總統(tǒng)(George W. Bush)通常都會耐心聽完。
Grappling with North Korea in negotiations is a new experience not just for Trump, but also for everyone else in the upper ranks of his administration. South Korean officials say that John R. Bolton, Trump’s new national security adviser, has been in near daily contact with his counterpart in Seoul, trying to work out a strategy.
在談判中與朝鮮較量不僅對特朗普來說是前所未有的經(jīng)歷，對他的政府的上層人士來說也是如此。韓國官員表示，特朗普的新任國家安全顧問約翰·R·博爾頓(John R. Bolton)幾乎每天都與首爾的國家安全顧問交流，試圖制定出一個策略。
Bolton has been clear that in his view the president should use the Singapore meeting to declare that the North must give up its entire arsenal and nuclear infrastructure before crippling economic sanctions are eased.
博爾頓已明確表示，在他看來，總統(tǒng)應(yīng)該利用新加坡會晤宣布，在致命的經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁放松之前，朝鮮必須放棄它的全部軍火庫和核基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。
The South has been advocating a more traditional confidence-building approach, in which concessions by the North result in a gradual lifting of sanctions. But Trump has said he will not repeat that technique, because it led to failure by his four immediate predecessors.
韓國一直主張采取更傳統(tǒng)的建立信任的方式，那就是，對朝鮮的讓步給予制裁的逐步取消。但特朗普已表示，他不會重復(fù)那種做法，因為他的四位前任就是因為這種做法而失敗的。
Until now, administration officials have been saying they expect Kim to agree to denuclearization at the Singapore summit meeting and to set a schedule for a fast down payment over the next six months, which would involve turning over some number of nuclear weapons, closing production facilities and allowing inspectors to range the country.
直到現(xiàn)在，特朗普政府的官員們一直表示，他們期望金正恩在新加坡峰會上同意無核化，制訂一個在接下來的六個月里快速實現(xiàn)初步承諾的計劃，它將包括交出一定數(shù)量的核武器，關(guān)閉生產(chǎn)設(shè)施，允許檢查人員巡視朝鮮。
Those who have dealt with North Korea most intensively say that expectation will have to be scaled back if Trump expects success.
最近與朝鮮接觸最頻繁的人士表示，如果特朗普希望取得成功，那么就必須降低期望。
“If Trump is truly expecting to see a handover of nuclear weapons in six months, without anything in return, that is very unrealistic,” said Joseph Yun, the State Department’s North Korea coordinator until he retired a few months ago. He predicted that Trump would be forced into the kind of step-by-step measures that his predecessors attempted, “because there is no other way.”
“如果特朗普真的希望在六個月內(nèi)看到朝鮮在沒有得到任何回報的情況下交出核武器，那會是非常不現(xiàn)實的，”數(shù)月前辭職的美國國務(wù)院朝鮮事務(wù)協(xié)調(diào)員尹汝尚(Joseph Yun)表示。據(jù)他預(yù)測，特朗普將被迫采取他的前任們嘗試過的那種循序漸進(jìn)的措施，“因為沒有別的辦法。”
