杰伊?鮑威爾上任后美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首次加息

The Federal Reserve lifted short-term interest rates by a quarter-point and forecast that rates will rise higher than expected in the coming years as its new chairman Jay Powell responds to strengthening growth at home and abroad.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)將短期利率提高四分之一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)幾年隨著其新任主席杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外不斷增強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)作出回應(yīng)，利率將升至高于預(yù)期的水平。

The US central bank raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 1.5-1.75 per cent as it predicted inflation would accelerate in the coming months. The Fed’s median forecast for interest rates at the end of 2018 was left unchanged, but its projections pointed to an extra increase in 2019 with more tightening to come in 2020.

這家美國(guó)央行將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)四分之一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，至1.5%至1.75%，并預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾個(gè)月通脹將加速上揚(yáng)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)2018年底的利率中值預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，但其預(yù)測(cè)顯示，2019年將有一次額外加息，而2020年將有更多收緊行動(dòng)。

“The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months,” the Fed said in a statement following its latest two-day meeting. “The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labour market conditions will remain strong.”

“近幾個(gè)月經(jīng)濟(jì)前景有所轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)，”美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在最近一次兩天會(huì)議后發(fā)表聲明稱。“委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，隨著貨幣政策立場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步逐漸調(diào)整，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)將在中期內(nèi)適度擴(kuò)張，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況將保持強(qiáng)勁。”

Shortly after he took over the Fed in February Mr Powell signalled the US had hit an important turning point, as previous drags, including fiscal policy, reversed direction and provided a lift to growth. Republican tax cuts and a deal on Capitol Hill to boost limits on spending are set to deliver a major short-term stimulus; the $1.5tn tax cuts should on their own add half a percentage point to growth this year and next, according to Fed governor Lael Brainard.

鮑威爾在2月份接任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席不久之后發(fā)出信號(hào)表明，美國(guó)已到達(dá)一個(gè)重要轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，因?yàn)橹暗膸讉€(gè)拖累因素(包括財(cái)政政策)均已改變方向，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到提振作用。共和黨推動(dòng)通過(guò)的減稅措施，以及國(guó)會(huì)達(dá)成的提高支出上限的協(xié)議，將帶來(lái)重大短期刺激;據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事萊爾•布雷納德(Lael Brainard)介紹，僅1.5萬(wàn)億美元減稅一項(xiàng)就將給今年和明年分別帶來(lái)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的額外增長(zhǎng)。

Wednesday’s increase in the Fed’s target rate was widely expected by the financial markets. While some traders expected the Fed to pencil in a total of four rate rises this year, the median forecast in Fed officials’ rate outlook remained unchanged at three.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)周三上調(diào)目標(biāo)利率之舉是金融市場(chǎng)普遍意料之中的。盡管一些交易員曾預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)今年將加息四次，但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員們的利率前景中值預(yù)測(cè)仍為三次。

However, the median prediction is now for three increases in 2019, more than previously expected. The midpoint of the Fed’s target range will now reach 3.4 per cent by 2020, higher than the 3.1 per cent predicted previously. The Fed’s estimate of its target range over longer-run edged slightly higher to 2.9 per cent.

但是，對(duì)2019年的中值預(yù)測(cè)現(xiàn)在是三次加息，超過(guò)之前的預(yù)期。對(duì)2020年利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間中點(diǎn)的預(yù)測(cè)現(xiàn)在達(dá)到3.4%，高于此前預(yù)測(cè)的3.1%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)較長(zhǎng)期利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間中點(diǎn)的估測(cè)微幅升至2.9%。

In its statement the Fed said the economy had been expanding at a “moderate” rate and noted a slowdown in household and business investment. Early estimates of growth in the first quarter of 2018 point to a deceleration to 1.8 per cent from the 2.5 per cent annualised pace reported for the final quarter of 2017.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在聲明中表示，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在以“溫和”速度擴(kuò)張，并指出家庭和企業(yè)投資放緩。2018年第一季度的初步估測(cè)顯示，增長(zhǎng)將出現(xiàn)減速，年化增速將從2017年最后一個(gè)季度的2.5%降至1.8%。

However economists expect the slowdown to be a fleeting one, due to buoyant business and consumer confidence and widespread growth overseas. The Fed’s forecasts for 2018 projected an annualised expansion of 2.7 per cent, compared with 2.5 per cent in its December outlook, and 2.4 per cent next year compared with 2.1 per cent previously.

不過(guò)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)計(jì)這一放緩將是短暫的，原因是企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者信心較強(qiáng)，海外也普遍出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)現(xiàn)在對(duì)2018年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)為2.7%，高于去年12月所預(yù)測(cè)的2.5%;而對(duì)明年增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)為2.4%，高于之前預(yù)測(cè)的2.1%。