美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)看好美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)

The US economic expansion is set to gain momentum, hardening the arguments for increases in short-term interest rates, Federal Reserve policymakers said at their latest meeting.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)的政策制定者們?cè)谧罱淮螘?huì)議上表示，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭將進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)，這加強(qiáng)了上調(diào)短期利率的理由。

A number of participants in the US central bank’s January 30-31 meeting said they had marked up their growth forecasts since the previous month, encouraged by firm global growth, supportive financial markets and the potential for US tax cuts to boost the economy more than expected. Others said the “upside risks” to growth may have increased, according to minutes of the gathering.

美國(guó)央行1月30日至31日會(huì)議的多名與會(huì)者表示，自上月開始，他們已調(diào)高了增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期，受全球經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)、金融市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)支持態(tài)勢(shì)，以及美國(guó)減稅措施對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)提振作用可能超出預(yù)期的鼓舞。此次會(huì)議的紀(jì)要顯示，另一些人表示，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的“上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”可能有所增加。

“A majority of participants noted that a stronger outlook for economic growth raised the likelihood that further gradual policy firming would be appropriate,” according to the record released on Wednesday.

周三公布的會(huì)議記錄顯示，“大多數(shù)與會(huì)者指出，更強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景增加了這種可能性，即進(jìn)一步逐漸收緊政策將是適當(dāng)?shù)摹?rdquo;

The Fed’s rate-setters reflected the increased arguments for rate rises by changing the language in their post-meeting statement to point to “further” rate rises.

反映支持加息的觀點(diǎn)有所增加的是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的利率制定者們?cè)跁?huì)后的聲明中改變了措辭，指出利率會(huì)“進(jìn)一步”提高。

The Fed’s most recent policy meeting was held shortly before the departure of Janet Yellen as chair and the outbreak of market volatility that greeted Jay Powell, her successor, during his first days on the job. Policymakers including Bill Dudley, the New York Fed president, have stressed that the gyrations in the equity market were unlikely to shake the central bank’s plans to continue its gradual programme of rate rises.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的最近一次政策會(huì)議是在前主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)卸任前不久舉行的，她的繼任者杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)剛剛上任就迎來(lái)了市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)蕩。紐約聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席比爾•達(dá)德利(Bill Dudley)等政策制定者強(qiáng)調(diào)，股市的波動(dòng)不太可能動(dòng)搖央行推進(jìn)逐漸加息的計(jì)劃。

While January’s deliberations predated the worst of the market fluctuations, the record suggests that Fed officials have become more confident about the economy since their December meeting, when they last raised interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate on hold at 1.25 to 1.5 per cent at the January meeting, while laying the ground for another move at the March 20-21 meeting.

雖然1月份的討論早于市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩最激烈之時(shí)，但會(huì)議紀(jì)要似乎表明，自美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在去年12月會(huì)議上加息以來(lái)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心有所增強(qiáng)。聯(lián)邦公開市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(FOMC)在1月會(huì)議上將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間維持在1.25%到1.5%之間，同時(shí)為3月20日至21日會(huì)議上再次加息做好了鋪墊。

A key question in markets now is whether the Fed could opt to boost rates four times in 2018, rather than the three moves currently forecast. The immediate market response to the minutes suggested they did not significantly advance that debate: the yield on the 10-year Treasury declined modestly and the dollar softened a little, but both moves were muted. Fed funds futures were little changed.

當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)上的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)不會(huì)選擇在2018年四次加息，而不是目前預(yù)測(cè)的三次?市場(chǎng)對(duì)會(huì)議紀(jì)要的即時(shí)回應(yīng)似乎表明，紀(jì)要內(nèi)容并未顯著推進(jìn)這場(chǎng)辯論：10年期美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率小幅下降，美元小幅走軟，但兩項(xiàng)變動(dòng)都很微小。聯(lián)邦基金利率期貨則幾乎沒(méi)有變化。