FT大視野：向數(shù)據(jù)要石油

Just a few miles down the road from Facebook’s headquarters, Schlumberger’s Software Technology Innovation Center in leafy Menlo Park feels like just another Silicon Valley business with dreams of changing the world.

在郁郁蔥蔥的美國加州門洛帕克市(Menlo Park)，就在距離Facebook總部不遠的地方，坐落著斯倫貝謝(Schlumberger)的軟件技術(shù)創(chuàng)新中心(Software Technology Innovation Center)，這里給人的感覺就像又一家夢想改變世界的硅谷企業(yè)。

Walls are covered with Post-it notes with ideas for product features and design principles, and the canteen has bowls of fruit and a shared pizza delivery every Friday lunchtime. Some of the engineers use standing desks and balance boards to exercise while they work. They are drawn from a diverse range of countries and industry backgrounds: one was at Nasa before coming here, another worked for HBO.

墻上貼滿了便簽紙，上面寫著關(guān)于產(chǎn)品特點和設計原則的想法，食堂放著水果盤，每周五的午餐時間有共享的外賣披薩。一些工程師在工作時使用站立式辦公桌和平衡板來鍛煉身體。他們來自不同國家和各種各樣的行業(yè)背景：其中一位之前在美國國家航空航天局(NASA)工作，另一位之前為HBO電視頻道工作。

Like many successful engineers in northern California, Ashok Belani, Schlumberger’s executive vice-president for technology and the force behind the centre, drives a Tesla to work.

像北加州許多成功的工程師一樣，斯倫貝謝負責技術(shù)的執(zhí)行副總裁、該中心的靈魂人物阿肖克•貝拉尼(Ashok Belani)駕駛一輛特斯拉(Tesla)上班。

What Schlumberger is doing, however, is far from typical for Silicon Valley: it is working to increase output and cut costs for an activity at the heart of the old economy, oil and gas production.

然而，斯倫貝謝從事的業(yè)務與硅谷的典型企業(yè)相去甚遠：該公司正致力于為一項處于舊經(jīng)濟核心的活動——石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)——提高產(chǎn)出，降低成本。

The technology centre that the oilfield services group has created is a sign of the huge changes under way in oil and gas, as the industry begins to adopt the latest innovations in information technology. Techniques such as advanced data analytics, used by Google, Facebook, Amazon and others mainly to disrupt consumer-facing businesses, are now increasingly being applied to the energy industry. Many oil executives believe the results could be similarly dramatic.

這家油田服務集團創(chuàng)建的技術(shù)中心，體現(xiàn)了石油和天然氣領域正在發(fā)生的巨大變化，目前，該行業(yè)正開始應用信息技術(shù)領域的最新創(chuàng)新。谷歌(Google)、Facebook、亞馬遜(Amazon)等公司使用的、旨在顛覆面向消費者的企業(yè)的先進數(shù)據(jù)分析等方法，正越來越多地被應用于能源行業(yè)。石油業(yè)許多高管認為，其結(jié)果可能同樣戲劇性。

The new opportunities being opened up include analysis of rocks to target wells more precisely in oil-bearing areas, reservoir models to enable production to be maximised through the lifetime of an oilfield, and automation that can make operations safer, more efficient and cheaper. 正被開辟的新機會包括：巖層分析，以便在油區(qū)更精確地鉆井;油層模型，使相關(guān)油田在整個生命周期的產(chǎn)出最

大化;自動化，使開采作業(yè)更安全、更高效率、成本更低。

The increased production made possible by these innovations will put downward pressure on oil prices, creating headwinds for competing technologies including electric cars, and potential difficulties for producers in other countries that are not able to cut their costs the same way. It will also mean disruption for many in the oil industry, with job losses and changes in working patterns and culture.

這些創(chuàng)新帶來的產(chǎn)出增加，將給油價帶來下行壓力，給電動車之類的競爭性技術(shù)帶來阻力，潛在還會給其他國家無法以同樣方式削減成本的生產(chǎn)商帶來困難。這種局面還意味著給石油行業(yè)的許多參與者帶來劇變，導致失業(yè)以及工作模式和文化的變化。

Matt Rogers of McKinsey, the consultancy, says forecasters have failed to grasp fully the scale of the coming changes. “I don’t think we’ve built into our supply-side models just how much more oil this will provide,” he says. “The world in 10 years will feel very different . . . It’s going to feel like we’re in Star Wars compared to where we are now.”

咨詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey)的馬特•羅杰斯(Matt Rogers)表示，預測者未能充分把握即將到來的變化的規(guī)模。“我認為我們并未在供應側(cè)模型中計入這將帶來多少額外的石油產(chǎn)量，”他說，“10年后的世界將讓人感覺有很大的不同……與現(xiàn)在的局面相比，那時將讓人感覺身處《星球大戰(zhàn)》(Star Wars)時代。”

Big Data | Big Oil 大數(shù)據(jù)|大石油

1m 100萬

Number of sensors collecting data in Chevron oilfield in Kazakhstan

在雪佛龍(Chevron)哈薩克斯坦油田采集數(shù)據(jù)的傳感器數(shù)量

10%-20% 10%-20%

IEA estimate of cut in oil production costs from digital technologies

國際能源署(IEA)估算的數(shù)字技術(shù)可帶來的石油生產(chǎn)成本降幅

The oil industry has for decades been at the cutting edge of advances in information technology. John Browne, the former chief executive of BP, began his career at the end of the 1960s mapping oil reservoirs in Alaska using a computer that was the state of the art at the time. On the Top 500 list of the world’s most powerful supercomputers today, the leading private sector owners include Total and Eni, the French and Italian oil groups, and Petroleum Geo Services, a reservoir imaging company.

幾十年來，石油行業(yè)一直處于信息技術(shù)進步的前沿。英國石油公司(BP)前首席執(zhí)行官約翰•布朗(John Browne)上世紀60年代末開始他的職業(yè)生涯時，使用一臺當時極為先進的電腦在阿拉斯加繪制油層。在當今世界上最強大的超級計算機500強名單中，主要私營部門所有者包括法國石油集團道達爾(Total)、意大利埃尼石油(ENI)以及油藏成像公司Petroleum Geo Services。

The difference now is the rise of cloud computing services, which make it possible to store and analyse data at a relatively low cost, opening up possibilities for new applications for a much wider range of companies. The oil industry generates large volumes of data, both structured, such as temperature and pressure readings; and unstructured, such as video footage — and the quantity is growing all the time. The cost of sensors for collecting more data are falling and their sophistication rising, making it possible to monitor more aspects of an operation such as drilling a well.

現(xiàn)在的不同之處在于，云計算服務的發(fā)展使得以相對較低的成本存儲和分析數(shù)據(jù)成為可能，從而為更大范圍的企業(yè)打開了新應用的大門。石油行業(yè)產(chǎn)生大量數(shù)據(jù)(包括溫度、壓力讀數(shù)等結(jié)構(gòu)化的數(shù)據(jù)，以及視頻等非結(jié)構(gòu)化的數(shù)據(jù))，且數(shù)量一直在增加。用于采集更多數(shù)據(jù)的傳感器的成本正在下降，而技術(shù)含量不斷提升，使監(jiān)測鉆井等作業(yè)的更多方面成為可能。

Bill Braun, chief information officer of Chevron, the US oil group, says the volume of data the company handles has been doubling every 12-18 months. The expansion of its Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan, scheduled to start production in 2022, will include about 1m sensors.

美國石油集團雪佛龍首席信息官比爾•布勞恩(Bill Braun)表示，該公司處理的數(shù)據(jù)量每12至18個月就翻一番。該集團在哈薩克斯坦Tengiz油田的擴建項目(計劃于2022年投產(chǎn))將包含約100萬個傳感器。

Much of the industry’s data are never used, however. “A lot of data are collected, but a lot of it is very isolated,” says Binu Mathew, head of product management for digital at Baker Hughes, the oilfield services group majority owned by General Electric. “Only a small percentage of it is actually being analysed.”

然而，石油業(yè)的很多數(shù)據(jù)都從未被使用過。“大量數(shù)據(jù)被采集，但其中有很多是孤立的，”通用電氣(GE)持有多數(shù)股的油田服務集團貝克休斯(Baker Hughes)的數(shù)字產(chǎn)品管理主管比努•馬修(Binu Mathew)表示，“實際上只有一小部分得到了分析。”

Al Walker, chief executive of Anadarko Petroleum, a US independent oil producer, observed at the CERAWeek conference in Houston last year that although the company recorded a lot of data, “we don’t do that much with it”. He added: “I have terabytes and terabytes of seismic data, and I might use 5 per cent of that.”

美國獨立石油企業(yè)阿納達科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum)首席執(zhí)行官阿爾•沃克(Al Walker)去年在休斯頓舉行的劍橋能源周(CERAWeek)會議上表示，盡管該公司記錄了大量數(shù)據(jù)，但“我們并沒怎么利用”。他補充說：“我有TB級的海量地震勘測數(shù)據(jù)，而我或許用了其中的5%。”

Now that is changing. Data that have been collected on engineers’ laptops, or on paper, out in the field, and sometimes copied over by hand, can instead be transferred automatically back to the office. Old records stretching back decades are being converted into coherent data sets. A survey of oil executives last year by Accenture, another consultancy, found 70 per cent of them expected to invest more in digital technologies, with data storage and services the top priorities. It has become a cliché to say that “data are the new oil” — many companies are now looking for ways to turn data into oil.

現(xiàn)在這種局面正在改變。以往由工程師在現(xiàn)場記錄在筆記本電腦或者手寫在本子上、有時隨后用手工謄寫的數(shù)據(jù)，現(xiàn)在可以自動傳送回辦公室?？梢宰匪葜翈资昵暗呐f記錄正被轉(zhuǎn)換為一致的數(shù)據(jù)集。咨詢公司埃森哲(Accenture)去年對石油業(yè)高管進行的一項調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，70%的受訪者預期將加大對數(shù)字技術(shù)的投資，重點是數(shù)據(jù)存儲和服務。“數(shù)據(jù)就是新石油”的說法已成為老生常談，許多公司正在尋找將數(shù)據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)化為石油的方法。

There has been a spate of alliances between IT companies and oil companies. Microsoft last year signed strategic partnerships with Halliburton, another large oilfield services group, and with Chevron. Nvidia, which makes high-performance chips first used in the video game industry, has been working with Schlumberger, Halliburton and others to adapt its technology for viewing and interpreting seismic information. A year ago it announced a partnership with Baker Hughes on using artificial intelligence to help extract and process oil and gas.

IT公司和石油公司之間已經(jīng)結(jié)成了大量聯(lián)盟。微軟(Microsoft)去年與大型油田服務集團哈利伯頓(Halliburton)以及雪佛龍簽署了戰(zhàn)略合作伙伴關(guān)系。制造用于視頻游戲的高性能芯片的英偉達(Nvidia)，一直在與斯倫貝謝、哈利伯頓等公司合作，以便將該公司的技術(shù)用于查看和解讀地震勘測信息。一年前，英偉達宣布與貝克休斯合作，利用人工智能幫助開采和加工石油和天然氣。

The new technologies are creating business opportunities. Schlumberger, now the world’s largest listed oilfield services group, was founded by two French brothers who in 1926 launched a company to use electrical measurements to map rocks below the surface. Understanding what is happening in oil and gas reservoirs below the surface is still the company’s core competency, but it is increasing the range of services it can provide. Last year it launched a new software system called Delfi, which makes it possible to bring together and co-ordinate the way wells are designed, drilled and brought into production, to maximise output from an entire oilfield.

新技術(shù)正在帶來種種商業(yè)機會。如今是全球最大上市油田服務集團的斯倫貝謝，由兩名法國兄弟在1926年創(chuàng)立，他們利用電阻率測井法來測繪地下巖層。探測地下油氣層狀況仍是該公司的核心競爭力，但該公司正在擴大服務范圍。去年，該公司推出了一款名為Delfi的新軟件系統(tǒng)，可用于整合和協(xié)調(diào)油井設計、鉆井和完井的方式，以最大限度提高整個油田的產(chǎn)出。

Mr Belani hopes that by the end of this year, oil companies will be using the technology “on a regular basis” in the US and around the world. In the shale oilfields of the US, the new system could cut production costs by 40 per cent within the next decade, he says.

貝拉尼希望，到今年底，石油公司將在美國乃至世界各地“常態(tài)化地”使用這項技術(shù)。他表示，在美國的頁巖油田，這一新系統(tǒng)有望在未來10年內(nèi)使生產(chǎn)成本降低40%。

Other estimates of the impact of digital technologies are more modest. The International Energy Agency, the habitually cautious government-backed watchdog, last year suggested it could cut oil and gas production costs by 10-20 per cent.

其他人對數(shù)字技術(shù)帶來的影響的估計更為保守。作為政府支持的監(jiān)督機構(gòu)，國際能源署向來比較謹慎，該機構(gòu)去年提出，數(shù)字技術(shù)有望使油氣生產(chǎn)成本降低10%至20%。

But Mr Belani says digitalisation represents a “step change” in the industry’s economics, just like the advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing that first made production of shale gas commercially viable, about 15 years ago.

但貝拉尼表示，數(shù)字化代表了行業(yè)經(jīng)濟性的一大“巨變”，就像水平鉆井和水力壓裂技術(shù)的進步在大約15年前首次使頁巖氣生產(chǎn)具備商業(yè)可行性那樣。

“It might help keep oil prices at the reasonable levels, meaning in the $60s, and let everyone produce economically,” he says.

他說：“這或許有助于使油價保持在合理水平，也就是在每桶60至70美元之間，讓每家企業(yè)都能以經(jīng)濟上可行的方式生產(chǎn)。”

Like Schlumberger, GE has chosen to put some of its digital operations in the San Francisco Bay area, to develop links with local IT businesses and with Stanford University, and to draw on the region’s pool of talent.

和斯倫貝謝一樣，通用電氣也選擇把一部分數(shù)字業(yè)務放在舊金山灣區(qū)，以便與當?shù)豂T公司和斯坦福大學(Stanford University)建立聯(lián)系，并利用該地區(qū)的人才資源。

Across the bay from Silicon Valley, in San Ramon, Baker Hughes has a digital technology centre in a building shared with the software operations of its parent GE. It also shares GE’s software platform, Predix, which it uses for applications for oil and gas.

在與硅谷隔著一道海灣的圣拉蒙市(San Ramon)，貝克休斯數(shù)字技術(shù)中心與母公司通用電氣的軟件業(yè)務合用一棟大樓。它還共享通用電氣的軟件平臺Predix，將其用于油氣領域的應用。

One of the parts of the industry that is moving fastest to grasp the potential of the new technologies has been the shale business in North America. Many thousands of wells are drilled there every year, making it possible to learn from past efforts and quickly apply those lessons. There have been spectacular increases in productivity, driven in recent years by refinements that are sometimes referred to as “shale 2.0”, including drilling longer horizontal wells. But progress so far has largely been a matter of trial and error: experimenting with a new technique and keeping going if it seems to work.

最快采取行動抓住新技術(shù)潛力的行業(yè)參與者是北美的頁巖產(chǎn)業(yè)。北美每年鉆鑿好幾千口井，使得企業(yè)可以從過去的努力吸取經(jīng)驗，然后迅速將其應用于實踐。近年來，在有時被稱為“頁巖2.0”的各種技術(shù)革新的推動下，生產(chǎn)率出現(xiàn)了大幅提升。但迄今的進展在很大程度上是一個試錯的過程：用一種新方法進行實驗，如果看起來管用，就繼續(xù)進行下去。

Data analytics offer a chance to make that experimentation more scientific and inject new life into productivity. Some early results have been promising: BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley said last week that it had worked with a Silicon Valley start-up to develop an optimisation model, and had been able to raise production at the 180 wells in its pilot project by 20 per cent.

數(shù)據(jù)分析提供了一個機會，讓實驗更加科學，并為生產(chǎn)率注入新的活力。一些初步成果顯示出光明前景：英國石油(BP)首席執(zhí)行官戴德立(Bob Dudley)最近表示，該公司與硅谷一家初創(chuàng)企業(yè)合作開發(fā)了一種優(yōu)化模型，已將試點項目中的180口油井的產(chǎn)量提高了20%。

The potential gains are huge. Companies are recovering only about 8-10 per cent of the oil in place in US shale, so if new systems could raise that rate by even a few percentage points, the results would be dramatic.

潛在收益巨大。在美國頁巖油行業(yè)，目前企業(yè)僅能采收約8%至10%的石油地質(zhì)儲量，因此，如果新系統(tǒng)能將采收率提高哪怕幾個百分點，結(jié)果都將是戲劇性的。

There is also a lot of scope for automation in shale. Today there might be 26 people in a drilling rig crew, Mr Belani says. In five years’ time there could be just five.

頁巖行業(yè)還有很大的自動化空間。貝拉尼表示，現(xiàn)在一個鉆井平臺上可能有26名工作人員，而5年后可能5人就夠了。

Mr Braun says that now, “humans are largely driving the drill bit. But we believe that will increasingly be automated and turned over to a computer, just like an autopilot in an aircraft.”

布勞恩表示，如今，“人力主要的作用是操縱鉆頭。但我們相信，這種操作將日益自動化，并轉(zhuǎn)交由電腦處理，就像飛機上的自動駕駛儀一樣。”

Automation is already on the rise. Schlumberger has started shifting its horizontal drilling experts from out in the field to its Houston offices, from where they can watch over operations for six wells at a time, instead of just one.

自動化程度已開始上升。斯倫貝謝已開始將其水平鉆井專家從現(xiàn)場轉(zhuǎn)移到其休斯頓辦公室。在那里，專家們可以一次監(jiān)視6口、而非僅僅1口油井的作業(yè)。

Like other sectors disrupted by the latest wave of innovation, the oil industry is facing radical changes in terms of job losses and transformed employment patterns. “It’s going to be uncomfortable for a while,” Mr Rogers says.

就像被最新一輪創(chuàng)新浪潮顛覆的其他行業(yè)一樣，石油業(yè)面臨著巨大的變化，包括失業(yè)和用工模式轉(zhuǎn)變。“這種不舒服會持續(xù)一段時期，”麥肯錫的羅杰斯說。

Realising the full potential of the new technologies will mean bringing in more people with skills in software and data science. It will also mean overhauling corporate structures. “There’s a lot of problems still to be solved,” says Kausar Qazilbash of Accenture. “It’s not simple: it’s a massive shift in management that requires technological change and operational change.”

實現(xiàn)新技術(shù)的全部潛力，將意味著引進更多具備軟件和數(shù)據(jù)科學技能的人才，還將意味著徹底改革公司結(jié)構(gòu)。“還有很多問題有待解決，”埃森哲的考薩爾•卡齊爾巴什(Kausar Qazilbash)說，“這并不簡單：這是重大的管理轉(zhuǎn)型，需要技術(shù)變革和運營變革。”

If it can be accomplished successfully, the adoption of the new digital techniques will help defend oil and gas against the growing threat from renewable energy, battery storage and electric vehicles. Those new energy technologies are rapidly improving efficiency and cutting costs. But their old rivals in fossil fuels are not standing still.

如果這種轉(zhuǎn)型能夠成功完成，采用新的數(shù)字技術(shù)將幫助石油和天然氣抵御可再生能源、蓄電池儲能和電動車日益增長的威脅。新能源技術(shù)正在迅速提高效率和降低成本，但它們在化石燃料領域的老對手并沒有止步不前。

“We are just scratching the surface of what can be done with artificial intelligence,” says Mr Mathew at Baker Hughes. “This is one of those uses that will change the world.”

“在人工智能可以做到什么的問題上，我們只是觸及了表面，”貝克休斯的馬修說，“這是那些將改變世界的用途之一。”

New techniques: How oil groups are using computers to cut costs

延伸閱讀——新方法：石油集團如何使用計算機降低成本

The oil and gas industry is beginning to adopt new techniques made possible by modern computers that can store and process large and complex data sets. Often these techniques will employ “machine learning”, a form of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to draw conclusions by studying large data sets. The applications include:

石油和天然氣行業(yè)已開始采用因現(xiàn)代計算機而變得可能的新方法，這些計算機可以存儲和處理大型復雜的數(shù)據(jù)集。這些方法往往采用“機器學習”，這是一種利用算法的人工智能形式，通過研究大型數(shù)據(jù)集來得出結(jié)論。其應用場合包括：

Seismic analysis

地震勘測分析

Building a picture of rock formations and the location of oil and gas miles below the surface using seismic and other surveys is a highly complex operation. Powerful computers enable companies to understand more about the geology of regions that are difficult to observe, and to predict more accurately where oil can be found.

利用地震勘測和其他勘測來繪制地下數(shù)英里處巖層和油氣藏位置，是一項非常復雜的工作。強大的計算機使企業(yè)能夠加深了解難以觀測的地區(qū)的地質(zhì)情況，并更準確地預測在哪里有望找到石油。

Production optimisation

生產(chǎn)優(yōu)化

The flow of oil from a reservoir depends on a complex range of factors including the length and spacing of the wells and the types of fracturing used. Modern techniques allow companies to maximise the value from a field, sometimes throttling back initial production to achieve a higher ultimate return.

源自油藏的石油流動取決于一系列復雜的因素，包括油井的長度和間距，以及使用的壓裂類型?，F(xiàn)代技術(shù)讓企業(yè)得以實現(xiàn)油田價值的最大化，有時會抑制初始產(chǎn)量，以獲得更高的最終回報。

Predictive maintenance

預見性維護

Studying all the data associated with pieces of equipment such as pumps and valves can give indications as to when they are likely to fail, allowing them to be repaired or replaced before they break. The result is better safety and an ability to streamline maintenance schedules.

研究關(guān)于設備部件(如泵和閥門)的所有數(shù)據(jù)，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)有關(guān)它們何時可能發(fā)生故障的跡象，以便在它們損壞之前進行修理或更換。其結(jié)果是更好的安全性，并且有能力簡化維護日程表。

Automation

自動化

The spread of intelligent and connected devices means that processes that traditionally needed skilled staff at a wellhead or processing plant can increasingly be run remotely. The result will be lower labour costs, greater safety with fewer workers in hazardous environments, and increased efficiency.

智能和網(wǎng)聯(lián)設備的普及意味著，傳統(tǒng)上在井口或加工廠需要熟練員工操作的流程，可以越來越多地以遠程方式操作。其結(jié)果將是降低勞動力成本，減少危險環(huán)境中工人數(shù)量從而提高安全性，以及提高效率。

Security 網(wǎng)絡安全

The energy industry is already a prime target for cyber attacks, such as the Shamoon and Shamoon 2 viruses that hit Saudi Aramco in 2012 and 2016. Increased mobile connectivity, the greater use of operational data and automation create new vulnerabilities, and oil companies need to deploy the most advanced technology to protect themselves.

能源行業(yè)已成為網(wǎng)絡攻擊的一個主要目標，比如2012年和2016年襲擊沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司(Saudi Aramco，簡稱沙特阿美)的Shamoon 和Shamoon 2病毒。移動聯(lián)網(wǎng)的增多、對作業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)加大利用以及自動化帶來了新漏洞，因此石油公司需要部署最先進的技術(shù)來保護自己。