美聯(lián)儲新掌門不太可能向股市“下馬威”低頭

Jay Powell received a brutish welcome from the stock market on his first day as Federal Reserve chairman, but the equity sell-off that spread across the world is unlikely on its own to force him to chart a new course on monetary policy.

杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)在出任美聯(lián)儲(Fed)主席的第一天，股市就給了他一個“下馬威”。不過，他不太可能就因為席卷世界的股票拋售潮而改變美國的貨幣政策路線。

While a sustained rout would start damaging business and consumer sentiment as wealth is depressed, the S&P 500 index remains at levels seen as recently as December.

盡管持續(xù)暴跌導(dǎo)致的負(fù)財富效應(yīng)會開始傷及企業(yè)和消費者的信心，但標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)目前仍處于去年12月所見的點位。

A markets barometer from Goldman Sachs shows that financial conditions at Monday’s close were still nearly 170 basis points looser than they were when the Fed first lifted rates at the end of 2015, suggesting that markets are continuing to support growth.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)一項衡量市場狀況的指標(biāo)顯示，周一收盤時的金融狀況仍比美聯(lián)儲2015年底首次加息時寬松近170個基點，這表明市場仍在繼續(xù)支撐增長。

Traders pared back their bets on a rate rise in March after the stock market slumped on Monday, putting the chances of a move at 69 per cent, according to CME Group’s analysis.

根據(jù)芝加哥商品交易所集團(tuán)(CME Group)的分析，在周一的股市暴跌之后，交易員們削減了他們對美聯(lián)儲在3月加息的押注，由此計算得出的美聯(lián)儲3月加息概率為69%。

But analysts stressed that US economic prospects remain sufficiently buoyant to keep the Fed on track for three rate rises this year, which was the median forecast from Fed policymakers published in December. Goldman analysts are among those still expecting four increases.

但分析師們強調(diào)，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)前景依然足夠樂觀，因此美聯(lián)儲將繼續(xù)沿著今年加息3次的路徑前進(jìn)，加息3次是美聯(lián)儲政策制定者去年12月發(fā)布的預(yù)測中值。而包括高盛分析師在內(nèi)的一些人依然預(yù)計美聯(lián)儲今年將加息4次。

Mark Spindel, founder and chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC, said: “The correction has been nowhere near large enough to hit the real economy. It is true that we have a new Fed chair and a lot of vacancies at the central bank, so there is uncertainty in the markets about how they will react.

Potomac River Capital LLC創(chuàng)始人兼首席投資官馬克•斯平德爾(Mark Spindel)表示：“此次回調(diào)的幅度絕不足以沖擊到實體經(jīng)濟(jì)。的確，我們有了一位新的美聯(lián)儲主席，而且這家央行也有很多職位空缺，因此市場對他們會如何應(yīng)對心里沒底。

“But the economy is strong, there has finally been an increase in wage growth, and unemployment is headed below 4 per cent: the worst thing Jay Powell could do would be to react to this and get pushed around by two days of market volatility.”

“但是，經(jīng)濟(jì)很強勁，終于實現(xiàn)了薪資增長，失業(yè)率也正走向4%下方：杰伊•鮑威爾能做的最糟糕的事情，就是對此作出反應(yīng)、被持續(xù)兩天的市場波動擺布。”