神預(yù)測(cè)：比爾-蓋茨1999年做出的這15個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)都成真了

早在1999年，微軟創(chuàng)始人比爾-蓋茨曾寫(xiě)下一本名為《未來(lái)時(shí)速-數(shù)字系統(tǒng)與商務(wù)新思維》的著作。蓋茨在書(shū)中對(duì)未來(lái)做出了15個(gè)大膽的預(yù)言。這些預(yù)言在當(dāng)時(shí)聽(tīng)起來(lái)不可思議，而如今卻基本上都已實(shí)現(xiàn)或接近實(shí)現(xiàn)，比如：移動(dòng)設(shè)備的普及、移動(dòng)支付、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融、物聯(lián)網(wǎng)等。

 

 

Carlos Barria/Reuters

No. 1: Price-comparison sites.

1. 比價(jià)網(wǎng)站

Gates' prediction: "Automated price comparison services will be developed, allowing people to see prices across multiple websites, making it effortless to find the cheapest product for all industries."

預(yù)測(cè)：“自動(dòng)比價(jià)服務(wù)將被開(kāi)發(fā)出來(lái)，人們借此可以看到多個(gè)網(wǎng)站上的價(jià)格，毫不費(fèi)力地找到所有行業(yè)中最便宜的產(chǎn)品。”

What we see now: You can easily search for a product on Google or Amazon and get different prices. Sites like NexTag, PriceGrabber, and even Microsoft's own Bing Shopping are built specifically to compare prices.

現(xiàn)狀：你可以輕松地在谷歌或亞馬遜上搜索產(chǎn)品，并得到不同報(bào)價(jià)。NexTag、PriceGrabber、甚至微軟的必應(yīng)購(gòu)物等專(zhuān)業(yè)比價(jià)搜索網(wǎng)站也涌現(xiàn)出來(lái)。

No. 2: Mobile devices.

2. 移動(dòng)設(shè)備

Gates' prediction: "People will carry around small devices that allow them to constantly stay in touch and do electronic business from wherever they are. They will be able to check the news, see flights they have booked, get information from financial markets, and do just about anything else on these devices."

預(yù)測(cè)：“人們將隨身攜帶小型設(shè)備，并用于和他人隨時(shí)保持聯(lián)系，隨地都能開(kāi)展電子商務(wù)。人們可以查看新聞和預(yù)訂航班，從金融市場(chǎng)獲取信息，以及做任何其他事情。”

What we see now: Smartphones, smartwatches, speakers like the Amazon Echo, and even headsets like the Microsoft HoloLens give users a way to have all of their information on hand at all times.

現(xiàn)狀：智能手機(jī)、智能手表、亞馬遜Echo等智能音箱、微軟全息透鏡等設(shè)備都可以讓使用者隨時(shí)獲取信息。

 

 

Reuters/Philippe Wojazer

No. 3: Instant payments and financing online, and better healthcare through the web.

3. 即時(shí)支付和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)醫(yī)療

Gates' prediction: "People will pay their bills, take care of their finances, and communicate with their doctors over the internet."

預(yù)測(cè)：“人們會(huì)通過(guò)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)支付賬單、理財(cái)并與醫(yī)生溝通。”

What we see now: Tech hasn't been able to change healthcare the way Uber changed transportation, but sites like ZocDoc aim to make finding a doctor and scheduling easier.

現(xiàn)狀：技術(shù)沒(méi)能像優(yōu)步改變交通行業(yè)那樣改變醫(yī)療行業(yè)，但ZocDoc等網(wǎng)站使人們?cè)趯ふ裔t(yī)生和安排就診時(shí)更方便。

You can also now borrow money online through sites like Lending Club and easily make payments through sites and apps like PayPal and Venmo.

你可以在Lending Club這類(lèi)的網(wǎng)站貸款，用貝寶或者Venmo等網(wǎng)站和應(yīng)用程序完成在線付款。

No. 4: Personal assistants and the internet of things.

4. 私人助理和物聯(lián)網(wǎng)

Gates' prediction: "'Personal companions' will be developed. They will connect and sync all your devices in a smart way, whether they are at home or in the office, and allow them to exchange data. The device will check your email or notifications, and present the information that you need. When you go to the store, you can tell it what recipes you want to prepare, and it will generate a list of ingredients that you need to pick up."

預(yù)測(cè)：“私人伴侶”將被開(kāi)發(fā)出來(lái)，它們將以智能的方式連接并同步你辦公室和家中的所有設(shè)備，并允許設(shè)備之間交換數(shù)據(jù)。它將能夠檢查你的電子郵件或通知，并提供你需要的信息。當(dāng)你去商店時(shí)，你可以告訴它你要準(zhǔn)備的食譜，它將生成你需要購(gòu)買(mǎi)的食材列表。

What we see now: Virtual voice assistants like Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa are moving in this direction, offering a personalized way to get your information just by asking for it out loud. Meanwhile, smart devices like Nest collect data on your daily routines and automatically adjust your house's temperature.

現(xiàn)狀：谷歌助理和亞馬遜Alexa等虛擬語(yǔ)音助手正朝著這一方向邁進(jìn)。它們?yōu)橛脩?hù)提供個(gè)性化方式，只需大聲說(shuō)出要求就能知道你所需。同時(shí)，Nest等智能設(shè)備可以收集你的日常生活數(shù)據(jù)，并自動(dòng)調(diào)整房屋溫度。

 

 

Nest

No. 5: Online home-monitoring.

5. 在線家庭監(jiān)控

Gates' prediction: "Constant video feeds of your house will become common, which inform you when somebody visits while you are not home."

預(yù)測(cè)：“家庭實(shí)時(shí)錄像監(jiān)控將會(huì)普及。如果在你外出的時(shí)候有人來(lái)訪，系統(tǒng)就會(huì)及時(shí)通知你。”

What we see now: This is increasingly common — companies like Canary, Ring, Netgear, and Google cousin company Nest all make cameras that let you view the feed from your phone, and that send a push alert when there's a human in view.

現(xiàn)狀：這越來(lái)越普遍了，Canary、Ring、Netgear和谷歌的兄弟公司Nest都在生產(chǎn)可以從手機(jī)讀取視頻信息的攝像頭。如果有人出現(xiàn)在攝像頭范圍內(nèi)，還會(huì)發(fā)給你提醒消息。

 

 

Apple

No. 6: Social media.

6.社交媒體

Gates' prediction: "Private websites for your friends and family will be common, allowing you to chat and plan for events."

預(yù)測(cè)：“你的朋友和家人都將會(huì)有他們專(zhuān)屬的私人網(wǎng)站，你們可以私聊或者策劃活動(dòng)。”

What we see now: "Private websites" didn't quite happen. But Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Snapchat, Line, Slack, and plenty of other apps give you an easy way to keep in contact with groups large and small.

現(xiàn)狀：“私人網(wǎng)站”并沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)。但臉書(shū)、WhatsApp、Instagram、Snapchat、Line、Slack和其他眾多應(yīng)用程序可以讓你輕松與大小團(tuán)體保持聯(lián)系。

No. 7: Automated promotional offers.

7.自動(dòng)優(yōu)惠促銷(xiāo)

Gates' prediction: "Software that knows when you've booked a trip and uses that information to suggest activities at the local destination. It suggests activities, discounts, offers, and cheaper prices for all the things that you want to take part in."

預(yù)測(cè)：“只要你制定好旅行計(jì)劃，就會(huì)有專(zhuān)門(mén)的軟件通過(guò)這些信息，為你提供到達(dá)目的地后的活動(dòng)建議。它可以提議活動(dòng)，通知你優(yōu)惠和促銷(xiāo)類(lèi)的信息，以及所有商品或是你想使用的服務(wù)的最低價(jià)格。

What we see now: Travel sites like Expedia and Kayak offer deals based on a user's past purchase data. Google and Facebook can offer promotional ads based on the user's location and interests. Airbnb, which lets people stay in homes rather than hotels, offers specialized trips at destinations so you can live like a local, too.

現(xiàn)狀：Expedia和Kayak等旅游網(wǎng)站可以根據(jù)你的購(gòu)買(mǎi)記錄向你提供建議。谷歌和臉書(shū)也會(huì)根據(jù)用戶(hù)的所在地和興趣愛(ài)好，向他們推送促銷(xiāo)廣告。愛(ài)彼迎讓游客能短租在別人家中而不是酒店，還向游客提供專(zhuān)門(mén)的旅行建議，讓你像當(dāng)?shù)厝艘粯由睢?/p>

 

 

REUTERS/Robert Galbraith

No. 8: Live sports discussion sites.

8. 直播體育賽事討論網(wǎng)站

Gates' prediction: "While watching a sports competition on television, services will allow you to discuss what is going on live, and enter a contest where you vote on who you think will win."

預(yù)測(cè)：“當(dāng)你在電視上觀看體育比賽時(shí)，你將可以在網(wǎng)站上實(shí)時(shí)討論該賽事，并為你認(rèn)為將獲勝的一方投票。”

What we see now: A bunch of social media sites allow this, with Twitter being the clear leader — it even experimented with streaming some games. You can also leave comments in real time on sports sites like ESPN.

現(xiàn)狀：一大堆社交媒體網(wǎng)站有這種功能，推特是其中的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者(甚至直播一些比賽)。你也可以在ESPN這樣的體育網(wǎng)站上實(shí)時(shí)評(píng)論某一場(chǎng)體育比賽。

No. 9: Smart advertising.

9. 智能廣告

Gates' prediction: "Devices will have smart advertising. They will know your purchasing trends, and will display advertisements that are tailored toward your preferences."

預(yù)測(cè)：“人們使用的設(shè)備將提供智能廣告。廣告商將了解你的購(gòu)買(mǎi)習(xí)慣，并將展示根據(jù)你的偏好量身訂做的廣告。”

What we see now: Just look at the ads you see on Facebook or Google — most online advertising services have this feature, where advertisers can target users based on their click history, interests, and purchasing patterns.

現(xiàn)狀：臉書(shū)或谷歌的廣告就是這樣。大多數(shù)在線廣告服務(wù)都具有這種功能，廣告商可以根據(jù)用戶(hù)的點(diǎn)擊記錄、個(gè)人興趣和購(gòu)買(mǎi)模式來(lái)定位用戶(hù)。

 

 

Apple

No. 10: Links to sites during live TV.

10. 廣播電視中的網(wǎng)站鏈接

Gates' prediction: "Television broadcast will include links to relevant websites and content that complement what you are watching."

預(yù)測(cè)：“廣播電視將提供相關(guān)網(wǎng)站的鏈接和內(nèi)容，作為節(jié)目?jī)?nèi)容的補(bǔ)充。”

What we see now: Almost every commercial these days has a callout asking the viewer to go to a website, follow the business on Twitter, or a scan a QR code to add it on Snapchat.

現(xiàn)狀：幾乎每一個(gè)商業(yè)廣告都在引導(dǎo)人們?nèi)ハ嚓P(guān)網(wǎng)站，或去推特參與討論，或者通過(guò)掃描一個(gè)二維碼將它們添加到Snapchat上。

No. 11: Online discussion boards.

11. 在線討論板塊

Gates' prediction: "Residents of cities and countries will be able to have internet-based discussions concerning issues that affect them, such as local politics, city planning, or safety."

預(yù)測(cè)：“城市乃至國(guó)家的居民都將能夠在網(wǎng)上討論他們感興趣的話題，例如當(dāng)?shù)卣?，城市?guī)劃，或是安全問(wèn)題等等。”

What we see now: Most news sites have comment sections where people can have live discussions, and many sites have forums where people can ask and respond to certain questions.

現(xiàn)狀：大多數(shù)新聞網(wǎng)站都有評(píng)論功能，人們可以即時(shí)進(jìn)行討論。許多網(wǎng)站開(kāi)辟了論壇，人們可以在上面詢(xún)問(wèn)并回答某些問(wèn)題。

No. 12: Interest-based online sites.

12. 基于興趣的在線社區(qū)

Gates' prediction: "Online communities will not be influenced by your location, but rather, your interest."

預(yù)測(cè)：“在線社區(qū)的形成將不是基于你的位置，而是基于你的興趣。”

What we see now: All kinds of news sites and online communities focus on single topics. Many news sites have expanded to include separate verticals, offering more in-depth coverage on a given topic. Reddit is a great example of a website that's divided into subgroups, or "subreddits," that focus on interests rather than who you know or where you are.

現(xiàn)狀：現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)有了各種專(zhuān)注單一主題的新聞網(wǎng)站和在線社區(qū)，也出現(xiàn)了許多細(xì)分的新聞?wù)军c(diǎn)，為特定主題提供更深入的新聞報(bào)道。紅迪網(wǎng)是一個(gè)很好的例子，該網(wǎng)站被分為不同的子版塊，每一個(gè)子版塊都基于用戶(hù)的興趣，而不是基于你認(rèn)識(shí)的人或者你的地理位置。

No. 13: Project-management software.

13. 項(xiàng)目管理軟件

Gates' prediction: "Project managers looking to put a team together will be able to go online, describe the project, and receive recommendations for available people who would fit their requirements."

預(yù)測(cè)：“希望建立一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)的項(xiàng)目經(jīng)理將能夠在網(wǎng)上描述項(xiàng)目，并接受符合職位要求的新人推薦。”

What we see now: Tons of workflow software in the enterprise space, including Slack, Asana, and Trello, are revolutionizing how you recruit, form teams, and assign work to others.

現(xiàn)狀：現(xiàn)在業(yè)界內(nèi)有無(wú)數(shù)個(gè)工作流程軟件，比如Slack、Asana和Trello等等，徹底改變了招募人員、組織團(tuán)隊(duì)和分配工作的方式。

 

 

REUTERS/Mike Segar

No. 14: Online recruiting.

14.在線招聘

Gates' prediction: "Similarly, people looking for work will be able to find employment opportunities online by declaring their interest, needs, and specialized skills."

預(yù)測(cè)：“求職者可以在網(wǎng)上注明他們的興趣、需求和專(zhuān)業(yè)技能，尋找合適的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。”

What we see now: Sites like LinkedIn allow users to upload résumés and find jobs based on interests and needs, and recruiters can search based on specialized skills.

現(xiàn)狀：用戶(hù)可以在Linkedin一類(lèi)的網(wǎng)站上傳他們的履歷，根據(jù)個(gè)人興趣和需求找到工作。招聘者也可以根據(jù)專(zhuān)業(yè)技能來(lái)搜尋相對(duì)應(yīng)的求職者。

No. 15: Business community software.

15.企業(yè)社區(qū)軟件

Gates' prediction: "Companies will be able to bid on jobs, whether they are looking for a construction project, a movie production, or an advertising campaign. This will be efficient for both big companies that want to outsource work that they don't usually face, businesses looking for new clients, and corporations that don't have a go-to provider for the said service."

預(yù)測(cè)：“公司將可以投標(biāo)工作，無(wú)論他們是在尋求建筑項(xiàng)目，電影制作還是廣告宣傳等等。不管是對(duì)想要外包不熟悉的工作的大公司，尋找新客戶(hù)的企業(yè)，還是沒(méi)有既定供應(yīng)商的公司，這個(gè)方法都會(huì)非常有效。”

What we see now: There's not quite a single marketplace for companies to go find work, as a whole. However, a bunch of so-called "gig economy" services, like Upwork and Fiverr, allow freelancers and small businesses to find clients. Meanwhile, Craigslist remains as a favorite place for small businesses to connect with one another and find jobs.

現(xiàn)狀：目前沒(méi)有單獨(dú)的市場(chǎng)讓公司尋找業(yè)務(wù)，但有眾多的“零工經(jīng)濟(jì)”服務(wù)涌現(xiàn)出來(lái)，讓自由職業(yè)者和小企業(yè)尋找客戶(hù)，比如Upwork和Fiverr等等。同時(shí)，克雷格網(wǎng)站仍是小企業(yè)互相聯(lián)系尋找商機(jī)的最佳之選。