世界銀行：全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速見頂

Global growth appears to have peaked, with demographics, a lack of investment, a slowing in productivity gains and tightening monetary policy placing limits on economic expansion, the World Bank said.

世界銀行(World Bank)表示，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速似已見頂，人口結(jié)構(gòu)、缺少投資、生產(chǎn)率增速放緩以及貨幣政策收緊將限制經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張。

The world’s economic output grew 3 per cent last year as more than half of economies accelerated, thanks to a rebound in investment, manufacturing activity and trade, bank economists said. The global economy is expected to maintain that rough growth level through 2020.

世行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，去年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)3%，逾一半的經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長(zhǎng)加速，這得益于投資、制造業(yè)活動(dòng)和貿(mào)易回暖。據(jù)該行預(yù)計(jì)，從今年起到2020年，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)年增速將繼續(xù)保持與去年大致相當(dāng)?shù)乃健?/p>

But that may be as good as it gets, according to the bank’s annual report on the state of the global economy. The problem facing the world is that after years of recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, most advanced and developing economies have closed the output gap between actual and potential economic growth.

但根據(jù)世行關(guān)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的年度報(bào)告，這或許是最好的局面了。當(dāng)前世界面臨的問題是，自2008年金融危機(jī)過去以后經(jīng)過多年的復(fù)蘇，多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的實(shí)際增速已經(jīng)接近潛在增速。

Moreover, it is hard to see that changing unless governments embrace the sort of reforms and investment drives that the bank and other institutions have been demanding for years.

另外，除非各國(guó)政府實(shí)施世行和其他機(jī)構(gòu)多年來一直呼吁的改革和投資計(jì)劃，否則這種局面很難改變。

“If you step out of the [current] snapshot [of strong growth] and look at . . . the historical progression . . . what you actually observe is that, while the growth is real and welcome, the potential growth of the global economy is going to be somewhat limited in the future,” Shantayanan Devarajan, the bank’s senior director for development economics, said on Tuesday.

世行發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)高級(jí)總監(jiān)尚塔亞南•德瓦拉詹(Shantayanan Devarajan)周二表示：“如果你跳出(對(duì)當(dāng)前強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)的)印象，觀察……歷史演變……實(shí)際上你會(huì)注意到，盡管增長(zhǎng)是真實(shí)且可喜的，但未來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在增速將在某種程度上受限。”

As a group, advanced economies are expected to slow in the coming years as they run up against full employment and as central bankers raise rates to contain inflation, according to the World Bank. Already, the bank said, it expected growth in advanced economies to slow from 2.3 per cent last year to 2.2 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent by 2020.

世行預(yù)計(jì)，未來幾年，在充分就業(yè)和央行為控制通脹而加息的情況下，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體整體上將放緩增長(zhǎng)。該行表示，今年發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增速將從去年的2.3%放慢至2.2%，到2020年將降至1.7%。

But emerging and developing economies, which grew by 4.3 per cent as a group last year, are also likely to hit ceilings and contribute less to global growth.

另一方面，去年增長(zhǎng)4.3%的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體也可能觸及天花板，對(duì)全球增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)減少。

In many of the major emerging economies that have for years fuelled global expansion the underlying potential growth has fallen considerably over the past decade. It is likely to continue doing so over the next 10 years, the bank said.

多年來，主要新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體帶動(dòng)了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的擴(kuò)張，其中很多新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的基本潛在增速在過去10年已經(jīng)大幅下滑，世行預(yù)計(jì)未來10年它們可能還將延續(xù)這種下滑勢(shì)頭。

That reality, the bank’s economists say, is the result mainly of long-term demographic changes. Countries such as China are seeing their labour forces shrink as populations age. That has coincided with slowing productivity growth.

世行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，這種情況主要是長(zhǎng)期人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化所導(dǎo)致的。伴隨著人口老齡化，中國(guó)等國(guó)家的勞動(dòng)力規(guī)模萎縮。與此同時(shí)，生產(chǎn)率增速正在放緩。

Either could be addressed with investment and innovation and the case for encouraging both was now “absolutely critical”, Mr Devarajan said.

德瓦拉詹表示，這兩個(gè)問題都可依靠投資和創(chuàng)新來解決，如今鼓勵(lì)投資和創(chuàng)新有著極為迫切的理由。

The concerns over the long-term future of the global economy also coincide with fears in the short term.

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的未來可以說是既有遠(yuǎn)慮又有近憂。

Ayhan Kose, one of the authors of the new report, said “downside risks continue to dominate” for the global economy this year.

這份新報(bào)告的作者之一艾漢•科澤(Ayhan Kose)表示，今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)“仍然是下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為主”。

Among those risks is a sudden rise in the now-low borrowing costs that have helped fuel much of the recovery in recent years, either from quicker than anticipated rate rises from the US Federal Reserve and other central banks, or because of growing concerns about soaring capital markets.

一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是眼下處于低水平的借貸成本(近年來幫助推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的一大因素)可能突然上升，要么是因?yàn)槊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)和其他央行的加息步伐快于預(yù)期，要么是因?yàn)橘Y本市場(chǎng)飆升日益讓投資者擔(dān)憂。

Protectionism and a resulting slowdown in global trade also remained a risk, especially as the 4.3 per cent increase in the volume of goods and services traded last year had been so important as an engine for broader growth.

保護(hù)主義以及由此引發(fā)的全球貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)放緩也是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一，尤其是考慮到去年全球商品和服務(wù)貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)4.3%是整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要引擎。

Moreover, Mr Kose said the slowdown in the world’s potential growth had also made it more vulnerable to future shocks.

此外，科澤表示，潛在增速放緩也將使未來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)更容易受到?jīng)_擊。

Short of an unexpected surge in productivity gains, the world economy looked as if it faced a “mediocre future”, he said. “This is the time to undertake responsible forward-looking policies.”

科澤表示，除非生產(chǎn)率出人意料地迅猛增長(zhǎng)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎面臨著“平庸的未來”。“現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候采取負(fù)責(zé)任的前瞻性政策了。”