亞洲需求重新推高動力煤價格

Thermal coal, the least loved major commodity, has jumped to its highest level since late 2016 as strong manufacturing activity in Asia and appetite from China drives demand.

作為“最不受鐘愛的大宗商品”，動力煤的價格已躍升至2016年末以來的最高水平，原因是亞洲強勁的制造業(yè)活動和中國的胃口推高了需求。

Thermal coal is burnt to generate electricity, and is a big source of income for miners such as Glencore, Whitehaven and Yancoal, which produce material for the seaborne market. While the fossil fuel is being phased out in Europe on environmental grounds, it still accounts for about 40 per cent of energy consumption in emerging markets.

動力煤被用于燃燒發(fā)電，是嘉能可(Glencore)、Whitehaven、兗煤澳洲(Yancoal)等礦商的一大收入來源，這些企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的動力煤主要通過海路運輸。出于環(huán)保考慮，這種化石燃料在歐洲正逐漸被淘汰，但它在新興市場的能源消費中仍占到40%左右。

Its fortunes are therefore closely tied to manufacturing activity and the global economy, which most forecasters believe is enjoying the strongest period of expansion since the financial crisis. Indeed, coal-fired power generation rose in most of Asia’s major economies last year, boosting demand, according to BMO Capital Markets.

因此，動力煤市場的走勢與制造業(yè)活動和全球經(jīng)濟息息相關(guān)——多數(shù)預(yù)測者都認(rèn)為，全球經(jīng)濟正處于金融危機以來最強勁的擴張時期。實際上，蒙特利爾銀行資本市場(BMO Capital Markets)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年亞洲大部分主要經(jīng)濟體的燃煤發(fā)電量都有所增加，提振了動力煤需求。

“Thermal coal — once again it is powering Asian growth and urbanisation,” said Glencore’s chief executive Ivan Glasenberg. “It’s another commodity where there’s been under-investment over the years.”

“動力煤——再一次推動著亞洲的增長和城市化，”嘉能可首席執(zhí)行官伊萬•格拉森伯格(Ivan Glasenberg)表示，“這是另一種多年來投資不足的大宗商品。”

Australian coal with an energy content of 6,000 kcal/kg — benchmark for the vast Asia market — is trading at $103 a tonne, according to a price assessment from Argus Media. Six months ago it was just above $80 a tonne.

阿格斯傳媒(Argus Media)的價格評估顯示，每千克6000大卡的澳洲動力煤(亞洲市場的基準(zhǔn)動力煤)目前的價格為每噸103美元。而6個月前，其價格僅略高于每噸80美元。

On the supply side, big new thermal coal mines are not in the works and projects are becoming more difficult to finance as banks and investors fret about their environmental credentials. This has helped tighten the market and drive up prices.

動力煤供應(yīng)方面，目前沒有新的大型煤礦處于計劃開采階段，這一領(lǐng)域的項目越來越難獲得融資，因為銀行和投資者擔(dān)心此類項目達不到環(huán)保要求。這加劇了供應(yīng)緊缺，推高了價格。

Of the new tonnes that are entering the market, traders say much of this is lower quality material from Indonesia that does not have a high calorific value and is not favoured by big utility companies in Asia. As well as the strength of the Asia industrial cycle, other factors have helped boost thermal coal prices across the region, analysts say.

對于新進入市場的動力煤，交易商表示，其中很大一部分是來自印度尼西亞的品位較低、熱值較低的煤炭，并不受亞洲大型公用事業(yè)公司的青睞。分析師表示，除了亞洲工業(yè)周期強勁以外，還有其他一些因素也幫助推動了整個地區(qū)動力煤價格上漲。

China is allowing more coal-fired power generation this winter because of gas shortages and has loosened import restrictions. Domestic production in India has yet to pick up meaningfully, forcing it to buy from overseas and there is heavy congestion at ports in Australia, one of the world’s biggest suppliers.

由于天然氣短缺，中國今年冬季允許進行更多的燃煤發(fā)電，并放松了進口限制。印度國內(nèi)的煤炭開采并未實現(xiàn)切實的增長，迫使其從海外購買煤炭。澳大利亞各港口出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重擁堵，它是全球最大的煤炭供應(yīng)國之一。

“Supply is still very tight, probably not going to catch up with demand easily in January and February,” said Shirley Zhang, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie首席分析師Shirley Zhang表示：“供應(yīng)仍然非常緊張，可能在1月和2月都不大容易趕上需求。”

Traders reckon thermal coal could remain about $100 a tonne ahead of the annual contract negotiations between Japanese utility companies and Australian producers, which are usually led by Tohoku Electric Power and Glencore respectively.

交易商認(rèn)為，在日本公用事業(yè)公司與澳大利亞生產(chǎn)商——通常分別由日本東北電力公司(Tohoku Electric Power)和嘉能可牽頭——進行年度合同談判之前，動力煤的價格可能將保持在每噸100美元左右。

The April-March contracts historically accounted for up to half of Japan’s annual thermal coal imports. While that figure has fallen they are still used as a benchmark across the region by other consumers.

按照慣例，4月至次年3月的年度合同最高會占到日本年度動力煤進口的一半左右。雖然這一數(shù)字已經(jīng)有所下降，但這些合同仍會被其他客戶奉為整個地區(qū)的參照基準(zhǔn)。

Japanese power utilities typically pay a premium to secure supplies from Australia on long-term contracts because the coal works well in their boilers and meets environmental controls.

在這種長期合同中，日本電力公司通常會支付更優(yōu)越的價格，以確保獲得來自澳大利亞的供應(yīng)，因為動力煤在他們的鍋爐中燃燒較為充分，符合環(huán)境控制要求。

Last year the contracts were settled at $85 when the prevailing price was roughly $77. A price of $90 this year would deliver a big windfall for Glencore, which produces coal at $48 a tonne.

去年，這些合同的簽約價格為每噸85美元，而當(dāng)時主流的價格大約是每噸77美元。今年合同價如果定在每噸90美元，將為嘉能可帶來更多收入，該公司的煤炭生產(chǎn)成本為每噸48美元。

Over the long-term, analysts say coal faces significant headwinds, not least in China where the government wants to replace coal-fired boilers and more widely the huge falls in the cost of renewable energy.

分析師表示，長期來看，煤炭面臨著很大的不利因素，在中國，政府希望將燃煤鍋爐替換掉，況且從更大的范圍來說，可再生能源的成本已大幅下降。