FT社評(píng)：伊朗政府應(yīng)傾聽(tīng)國(guó)內(nèi)抗議者的聲音

In 2017 liberal democracies came under pressure from inside and out. The new year opened with a reminder that autocracies can be brittle, too.

2017年，自由民主國(guó)家遭受了來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)外的壓力。新年伊始，人們意識(shí)到：專制政體可能也是脆弱的。

The street protests that have swept across much of Iran in recent days have gathered momentum in a way that is virtually unprecedented in the nearly four decades since the revolution that deposed the shah. The ensuing crackdown will probably work. But Iran’s leadership should heed the warning signs. Iranians are tiring of a regime that squanders resources on foreign adventures, instead of devoting them to development at home.

近幾日，席卷伊朗大部分地區(qū)的街頭抗議活動(dòng)愈演愈烈，其勢(shì)頭之猛是自伊斯蘭革命起的將近40年來(lái)幾乎未曾見(jiàn)過(guò)的(伊斯蘭革命推翻了伊朗的沙阿)。之后的鎮(zhèn)壓很可能會(huì)奏效。但伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層應(yīng)該注意其中的警示。伊朗人已經(jīng)厭倦了一個(gè)把資源揮霍在海外冒險(xiǎn)行為、而非投入到國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展中的政權(quán)。

Popular frustration has been fuelled at least partly by unmet expectations. The re-elected centrist president Hassan Rouhani’s tentative rapprochement with the west held out the promise of an opening. Underpinned by the 2015 agreement to freeze some nuclear activities in return for the lifting of sanctions, the deal raised hopes among Iranians of re-engagement with the world and re-entry into global markets. But it has both whetted Iranian appetite for more change and failed to deliver in a practical sense.

民眾的不滿至少在一定程度上是因?yàn)槠谕吹玫綕M足而引發(fā)的。再次當(dāng)選的中間派總統(tǒng)哈桑•魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)與西方達(dá)成暫時(shí)和解，帶來(lái)了開(kāi)放的希望。2015年達(dá)成的凍結(jié)部分核活動(dòng)以換取解除制裁的協(xié)議，帶給伊朗人重新接觸世界、重新進(jìn)入全球市場(chǎng)的希望。但這既刺激了伊朗人對(duì)更多改變的渴望，又未能在實(shí)際層面上帶來(lái)改變。

Inflation has fallen, the economy is growing after years of recession and Iran’s crude oil is being sold overseas again. But the flow of investment and jobs has been stymied by the imposition by Washington of aggressive new non-nuclear sanctions, and uncertainty over US commitment to the nuclear deal. Banks and investors have also been scared off by the extent to which state entities such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are enmeshed in the economy.

通脹下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)在多年的衰退后恢復(fù)增長(zhǎng)，伊朗的原油再次銷往海外。但美國(guó)實(shí)施的與核活動(dòng)無(wú)關(guān)的強(qiáng)硬的新制裁措施，以及美國(guó)在遵守核協(xié)議問(wèn)題上的不確定性，阻礙了投資和就業(yè)。銀行和投資者也被伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)(IRGC)等國(guó)家機(jī)構(gòu)深入?yún)⑴c經(jīng)濟(jì)嚇退。

The protests are partly representative of the power struggle that is going on inside the regime. On one side there are those who believe that the survival of the Islamic Republic depends on maintaining an iron fist, and who fear economic change will lead ultimately to regime change. On the other side are those who argue that opening up and reforming the system is key to preserving it longer term.

抗議活動(dòng)在一定程度上體現(xiàn)了政權(quán)內(nèi)部的權(quán)力斗爭(zhēng)。一派人認(rèn)為，這個(gè)伊斯蘭共和國(guó)的生存有賴于繼續(xù)實(shí)行鐵腕統(tǒng)治，并擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)變革最終會(huì)導(dǎo)致政權(quán)更迭。另一派人認(rèn)為，開(kāi)放和體制改革是維持國(guó)家長(zhǎng)治久安的關(guān)鍵。

The hardliners appear rashly to have had a hand in stirring up this week’s trouble, taking advantage of discontent at rising prices, and stagnant living standards, in a bid to discredit President Rouhani. The reforms he promises are threatening to the theocrats, and their revolutionary guard enforcers, whose power, privileges and sprawl of business interests depend on the corruption of a closed system.

強(qiáng)硬派似乎貿(mào)然挑起了本周的騷亂，他們利用民眾對(duì)物價(jià)上漲和生活水平長(zhǎng)期得不到改善的不滿，意圖削弱魯哈尼總統(tǒng)的聲望。魯哈尼承諾進(jìn)行的改革威脅到了神權(quán)以及他們的執(zhí)行者革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)，后者的權(quán)力、特權(quán)及龐大的商業(yè)利益都取決于一個(gè)封閉體制的腐敗。

These actors are playing with fire. It is easy to start a protest. It is not always easy to control the outcome, especially when dealing with a clued-up, social media savvy young population exasperated by the status quo.

這些人正在玩火?？棺h很容易煽動(dòng)起來(lái)，但要控制后果并不容易，尤其是在應(yīng)對(duì)不滿現(xiàn)狀、博學(xué)多聞?dòng)志ㄉ缃幻襟w的年輕一代方面。

Mr Rouhani is caught in the middle, undermined at once by hawks in his own regime and a hawkish administration in Washington. The US president, Donald Trump, who has made no secret of his enmity for Iran, has tweeted his support for the protesters. Some Israeli politicians have also expressed support. That was unwise. Meddling by outsiders provides the hardliners with the perfect alibi for a crackdown, which can only undermine Mr Rouhani further.

魯哈尼受到自己政權(quán)中的鷹派和華盛頓鷹派政府的左右?jiàn)A擊。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)毫不掩飾對(duì)伊朗的敵意，發(fā)推文支持伊朗抗議者。一些以色列政治家也表達(dá)了支持。這么做并不明智。外界的干預(yù)為強(qiáng)硬派提供了鎮(zhèn)壓抗議的最佳借口，這只會(huì)進(jìn)一步削弱魯哈尼。

Within the current system he still represents the best hope of change. But the strength of this outpouring of rage should provide a signal that his government must be more responsive to the legitimate grievances of the population. Iranians are demanding results.

在伊朗目前的體制內(nèi)，魯哈尼仍是變革的最大希望。但民眾如此強(qiáng)烈地發(fā)泄憤怒應(yīng)該釋放出一種信號(hào)，即魯哈尼政府必須更好地回應(yīng)民眾合理的不滿情緒。伊朗人民要求看到切實(shí)的結(jié)果。

The EU should not be swayed by US belligerence. Squeezing the regime further, as many in Washington would like to do, is not the answer. It would be wiser to remain engaged and encourage incremental change.

歐盟(EU)不應(yīng)被美國(guó)的強(qiáng)硬姿態(tài)所左右。進(jìn)一步對(duì)伊朗政權(quán)施壓——此乃華盛頓許多人所希望的那樣——并不能解決問(wèn)題。更明智的做法是繼續(xù)接觸，并鼓勵(lì)伊朗實(shí)行漸進(jìn)式變革。