Lex專欄：伊朗怎么了？

Iran is a paradox. Its government is dominated by hardline religious conservatives yet it has one of the highest female university enrolment rates in the world. It hardly counts itself as a friend of Israel, yet its Jewish population is the second largest in the region. And its latest street protests, driven by economic discontent, come as the price of its biggest export, crude oil, has surged by nearly half since the summer.

伊朗是一個悖論。其政府由強(qiáng)硬的宗教保守派占主導(dǎo)地位，但這個國家的女性大學(xué)入學(xué)率躋身于世界最高之列。伊朗并不認(rèn)為自己是以色列的朋友，但該國擁有地區(qū)第二大的猶太人口。而就在該國最大出口商品原油的價格自去年夏季以來上漲近一半的時候，經(jīng)濟(jì)上的不滿釀成了最新的街頭抗議。

Iran’s economy, in some ways, looks better than that of its great Islamic rival Saudi Arabia. So long as sanctions — lifted in January 2016 — do not return, the economy and its government should survive the protests. That is not to say life is easy. With half the population under the age of 30, and youth unemployment estimated at 25 per cent, tensions have been long brewing. Inflation at 10 per cent no doubt hurts, though prices were climbing at a faster pace during the time of the 2009 riots.

在某些方面，伊朗經(jīng)濟(jì)看起來好過其在伊斯蘭世界的大對手沙特阿拉伯。只要2016年1月解除的制裁不再恢復(fù)，伊朗經(jīng)濟(jì)和該國政府就應(yīng)該能夠挺過這波抗議。這并不是說日子好過?？紤]到 30歲以下人口占總?cè)丝谝话?，而青年失業(yè)率估計高達(dá)25%，緊張已經(jīng)醞釀了很久。10%的通脹無疑是痛苦的，盡管在2009年騷亂期間價格上漲速度更快。

What will bite harder are Tehran’s plans to increase taxes while also cutting subsidies on key commodities such as petrol. The government is doing this to take the pressure off its budget. Yet Iran’s fiscal deficit, according to the World Bank, is not so wide at 1.5 per cent of GDP. Compare that figure with Saudi Arabia’s, proportionally six times larger.

更難以忍受的將是德黑蘭方面計劃增稅，同時削減對汽油等關(guān)鍵大宗商品的補(bǔ)貼。政府這樣做的動機(jī)是減輕預(yù)算壓力。然而據(jù)世界銀行(World Bank)統(tǒng)計，伊朗的財政赤字并不大，僅相當(dāng)于GDP的1.5%。不妨將這一數(shù)字與沙特阿拉伯的數(shù)字比較，后者的這一比例是其六倍。

Part of this difference has to do with Iran’s more diversified economy, which reduces its dependence on oil and gas exports. Years of economic sanctions only forced the economy further inwards. Output has increased since sanctions were lifted; in the two years to December, it grew by 32 per cent to 3.8m barrels a day, according to estimates from Energy Aspects.

這種差異在一定程度上與伊朗更加多元化的經(jīng)濟(jì)有關(guān)，這減少了對石油和天然氣出口的依賴。多年的經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁迫使經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步向內(nèi)。制裁解除后，產(chǎn)出有所增加：據(jù)咨詢公司Energy Aspects估計，在截至12月的兩年里，伊朗的石油產(chǎn)量增長32%，達(dá)到每日380萬桶。

Higher volumes coupled with stronger oil prices can only help. Even better for locals would be some additional investment in refining capacity. A shortfall of domestically produced petrol means Iran — Opec’s third-largest producer of crude — must import 50,000-80,000 barrels per day of petrol, stoking inflation as world prices for that have jumped as well.

更高的產(chǎn)量加上油價走強(qiáng)，只能說是積極因素。對當(dāng)?shù)厝藖碚f，更好的將是在煉油產(chǎn)能方面得到一些額外投資。國產(chǎn)汽油短缺意味著，身為歐佩克(OPEC)第三大原油生產(chǎn)國的伊朗，每日必須進(jìn)口5萬至8萬桶汽油，從而引發(fā)通脹，因為世界汽油價格也大幅上漲。

Iran’s economy may not be anywhere near meeting its potential, but it is also nowhere near the dire state of some other Opec members, most notably Venezuela. On the other hand, a resumption of full international sanctions on its oil exports would drive the oil price higher. Yet another paradox for Iran and her people.

伊朗經(jīng)濟(jì)也許遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有發(fā)揮出潛力，但它的形勢畢竟比其他一些境況糟糕的歐佩克成員國(尤其是委內(nèi)瑞拉)好得多。另一方面，恢復(fù)針對伊朗石油出口的全面國際制裁將推高油價。那將是伊朗及其人民面對的又一個悖論。