2018年金屬市場(chǎng)展望

The rally in equities may have stolen much of the attention this year, but metals and minerals have also been buoyant. Helped by solid global economic growth, metals have returned 24 per cent this year, according to the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return index.

2017年股市大漲吸引了很多關(guān)注，但金屬和礦物也表現(xiàn)不俗。標(biāo)普高盛商品指數(shù)工業(yè)金屬總回報(bào)指數(shù)(S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Total Return Index)顯示，在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)的支持下，金屬價(jià)格全年上漲了24%左右。

As commodity investors reflect on a successful 2017, here are the key factors that will shape what 2018 holds for precious metals as well as base and bulk commodities.

在大宗商品投資者反思2017年的成功之際，我們來(lái)看看將影響2018年貴金屬以及賤金屬和大宗商品走勢(shì)的關(guān)鍵因素。

China vs the rest of the world

中國(guó)VS全球其他地區(qū)

As the consumer of about half of the world’s raw materials, China will remain the big influence on commodity markets in 2018. Beijing’s pollution crackdown and its clampdown on excess capacity should provide a powerful prop for aluminium, steel and iron ore. It will also help offset the effect of tighter monetary policy and slowdown in the residential property market.

作為全球約一半原材料的消費(fèi)國(guó)，中國(guó)在2018年仍將是大宗商品市場(chǎng)的重要影響因素。中國(guó)政府治理污染和遏制產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩將為鋁、鋼鐵和鐵礦石提供有力支撐。這也將有助于抵消貨幣政策收緊和住宅市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)放緩的影響。

Aluminium, in particular, could shine. “With our expectation of Chinese production growth — just 2m tonnes over the coming five years — and domestic demand still healthy, exports will naturally trend lower,” says Colin Hamilton of BMO Capital Markets. “The rest of the world has become used to these exports, and in order to solve any reduction, productive capacity outside China will have to be incentivised.”

鋁的表現(xiàn)可能尤其耀眼。蒙特利爾銀行資本市場(chǎng)(BMO Capital Markets)的科林•漢密爾頓(Colin Hamilton)表示：“鑒于我們對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)期——今后五年僅為200萬(wàn)噸——而且國(guó)內(nèi)需求仍然健康，出口自然會(huì)下降。世界其他地方已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了這些出口，因此為了應(yīng)對(duì)中國(guó)出口下降，中國(guó)以外地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)能力必須得到激勵(lì)。”

In steel, a shift away from environmentally polluting mills to ones that are more efficient will fuel a need for high-grade iron ore, boosting the profitability of the big suppliers such as BHP Billiton, Vale and Rio Tinto.

在鋼鐵行業(yè)，從污染環(huán)境的鋼廠轉(zhuǎn)向效率更高的鋼廠將推動(dòng)對(duì)高品位鐵礦石的需求，提高必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、淡水河谷(Vale)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等大型供應(yīng)商的盈利能力。

But analysts and investors will also be tracking economic growth outside China. With order books filling up and manufacturing activity rising in key industrial countries, a period of restocking could follow. “Usually this marks a later part of the cycle, but also one where commodity prices are well supported,” says Mr Hamilton.

但分析師和投資者還會(huì)追蹤中國(guó)以外地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。隨著主要工業(yè)國(guó)家訂單和制造活動(dòng)的增加，可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一段時(shí)間的補(bǔ)充庫(kù)存活動(dòng)。漢密爾頓表示：“通常這標(biāo)志著周期進(jìn)入后期，它也是大宗商品價(jià)格得到很好支撐的一個(gè)階段。”

Copper 銅

Most analysts expect the copper market to be broadly balanced in 2018, with supply being sufficient to meet demand. What could swing the balance is a string of labour contracts that are up for review next year in important producer countries such as Chile and Peru.

大多數(shù)分析師預(yù)計(jì)，2018年銅市場(chǎng)將會(huì)基本保持平衡，供應(yīng)足以滿(mǎn)足需求。可能影響平衡的因素是2018年在智利和秘魯?shù)戎匾a(chǎn)國(guó)重新談判的一系列勞動(dòng)合同。

Citibank estimates that almost 30 sets of labour contract negotiations are set to take place over the next 12 months, potentially affecting 25 per cent of global copper supply. This includes Escondida, the world’s biggest copper mine in Chile, where one of the unions has already held a one-day warning strike.

花旗銀行(Citibank)估計(jì)，未來(lái)12個(gè)月將會(huì)進(jìn)行近30組勞動(dòng)合同談判，可能影響全球25%的銅供應(yīng)。在全球最大的銅礦、位于智利的埃斯康迪達(dá)(Escondida)，有一家工會(huì)已經(jīng)舉行了為期一天的警告性罷工。

Against a backdrop of higher prices — copper is close to $7,000 a tonne — workers will be in no mood to give ground easily. As such, industrial action could trigger big price actions next year

在價(jià)格上漲的背景下——現(xiàn)在銅價(jià)接近每噸7000美元——工人們將不愿意輕易讓步。因此，勞工行動(dòng)可能會(huì)在2018年引發(fā)重大的價(jià)格變動(dòng)。

Battery metals 電池金屬

Cobalt and lithium, key ingredients in the batteries used in electric vehicles, have had stellar years. Electric vehicles sales are expected to top the 1m mark for the first time. The price of lithium carbonate has risen 36 per cent, while cobalt prices have doubled — luring investors and junior miners to what has been dubbed “battery gold”.

鈷和鋰是電動(dòng)汽車(chē)用電池的關(guān)鍵材料，多年來(lái)價(jià)格強(qiáng)勁上漲。電動(dòng)汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量將有望首次超過(guò)100萬(wàn)輛。碳酸鋰價(jià)格上漲了36%，同時(shí)鈷價(jià)上漲了1倍——吸引投資者和小型礦商紛紛投資這些被稱(chēng)為“電池黃金”的金屬。

Yet the increasing supply of both metals remains a risk for prices next year. One of the world’s largest producers, Chile’s SQM, is in talks to resolve a dispute over how much lithium it can produce following the election of billionaire Sebastián Piñera as president.

然而，在2018年，這兩種金屬供應(yīng)增加仍然可能影響價(jià)格。智利的SQM是全球最大生產(chǎn)商之一，它正在展開(kāi)談判，以解決在億萬(wàn)富翁塞巴斯蒂安•皮涅拉(Sebastián Piñera)當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)之后有關(guān)該公司鋰產(chǎn)量的爭(zhēng)議。

“For Chile, the new round of negotiations could mean the country significantly expanding its lithium output,” analysts at BTG Pactual in Santiago note.

圣地亞哥BTG Pactual的分析師們指出：“對(duì)智利來(lái)說(shuō)，新一輪談判可能意味著該國(guó)的鋰產(chǎn)量將會(huì)大幅增加。”

A host of new lithium projects in South America and Australia are likely to end the shortage in the market by 2019, which will be followed by a few years of oversupply, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)表示，南美和澳大利亞新上馬的許多鋰項(xiàng)目到2019年可能會(huì)結(jié)束市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)短缺，隨后會(huì)出現(xiàn)數(shù)年供大于求的局面。

For cobalt, supply is coming on from Glencore, which is set to double production from its Katanga Mining subsidiary in the Democratic Republic of Congo. If all that comes to the market, it will put the cobalt market into a surplus in 2019, consultancy CRU estimates.

對(duì)于鈷來(lái)說(shuō)，來(lái)自嘉能可(Glencore)的供應(yīng)將會(huì)增加，后者位于剛果民主共和國(guó)的Katanga礦業(yè)子公司的產(chǎn)量可能翻倍。咨詢(xún)公司CRU估計(jì)，如果這些產(chǎn)量全都進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，鈷市場(chǎng)在2019年將會(huì)出現(xiàn)供過(guò)于求。

As far as demand goes, China, the world’s largest market for electric vehicles, will be key. Beijing is phasing out subsidies for car purchases in favour of a quota system that will encourage manufacturers to produce a certain number of vehicles. Analysts expect the change to hit sales in 2018.

就需求而言，全球最大的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)中國(guó)將是關(guān)鍵。中國(guó)政府正在逐步取消汽車(chē)購(gòu)買(mǎi)補(bǔ)貼，取而代之的是將會(huì)鼓勵(lì)制造商生產(chǎn)一定數(shù)量電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的配額制。分析師預(yù)計(jì)這一變化將在2018年影響銷(xiāo)量。

Gold 黃金

With a gain of almost 10 per cent, gold has had a decent year even if its gains were overshadowed by those for US stocks. After rising above $1,350 a troy ounce in early September, the highest in just over a year, the precious metal has since retreated to about $1,260.

黃金在過(guò)去一年表現(xiàn)還不錯(cuò)，漲幅接近10%，雖然比不上美股。繼去年9月初上漲到每盎司1350美元以上之后——這是近一年來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)——黃金價(jià)格回落至1260美元左右。

Strategists at Goldman Sachs reckon three forces will drive the price lower over the next few months: continued robust growth in developed economies, further rate rises from the Federal Reserve and the likely absence of severe geopolitical risks or a recession.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)策略師認(rèn)為，有三個(gè)因素將推動(dòng)黃金價(jià)格在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月走低：發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)進(jìn)一步加息，以及可能不會(huì)出現(xiàn)重大地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)或經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

However, the metal could still be in demand from investors as hedge both against the risk the bull market in stocks go into reverse and the rise in US national debt thanks to President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, according to Jonathan Butler, an analyst at Mitsubishi.

然而，三菱(Mitsubishi)分析師喬納森•巴特勒(Jonathan Butler)表示，為了對(duì)沖股市漲勢(shì)逆轉(zhuǎn)以及美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)減稅政策推動(dòng)美國(guó)國(guó)債上漲的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資者仍可能追捧黃金。

As we go into 2018, gold bulls will take some comfort from data that suggest investors have remained loyal to the precious metal. Investor holdings in gold-backed exchange traded funds have climbed 11 per cent this year to 71.4m troy ounces, according to Bloomberg.

隨著我們進(jìn)入2018年，黃金多頭將從表明投資者依然追捧黃金的數(shù)據(jù)中獲得一些安慰。據(jù)彭博(Bloomberg)報(bào)道，投資者持有的黃金ETF在2017年增長(zhǎng)了11%，至7140萬(wàn)盎司。

Palladium 鈀

Palladium has been the best performing commodity this year, surging by more than 50 per cent to a 17-year high, as drivers switch from diesel to petrol cars, which use the metal in their catalysts.

鈀是2017年表現(xiàn)最好的大宗商品，隨著駕車(chē)者從柴油車(chē)轉(zhuǎn)向汽油車(chē)——汽油車(chē)的催化劑中會(huì)使用鈀——鈀價(jià)上漲超過(guò)50%，至17年來(lái)的新高。

In contrast, platinum, which is used in diesel car catalysts fell to a 22-month low in December of $870 a troy ounce.

相比之下，用于柴油車(chē)催化劑的鉑金價(jià)格在去年12月份跌至22個(gè)月來(lái)的低點(diǎn)，為每盎司870美元。

Palladium’s stellar performance has made the metal more expensive than platinum for the first time since 2001, raising fears that carmakers will switch and start to use the cheaper platinum in catalysts.

鈀金的出色表現(xiàn)使得其價(jià)格自2001年以來(lái)首次超過(guò)鉑金，這使得人們擔(dān)心，汽車(chē)制造商會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)而開(kāi)始在催化劑中使用更便宜的鉑金。

The big question for 2018 is whether that trend unfolds. The industry-sponsored World Platinum Investment Council said in November that it had “anecdotal evidence” that carmakers are considering switching from palladium to platinum. Any sign of switching is “likely have a considerable impact on short to medium-term platinum demand should it come to fruition”, it says.

2018年的一大問(wèn)題是這種趨勢(shì)是否會(huì)展開(kāi)。業(yè)內(nèi)資助的世界鉑金投資委員會(huì)(World Platinum Investment Council)曾在去年11月表示，“有坊間證據(jù)”表明，汽車(chē)制造商正在考慮用鉑替代鈀。它表示，任何轉(zhuǎn)換跡象如果變成現(xiàn)實(shí)，就“可能對(duì)中短期鉑金需求產(chǎn)生相當(dāng)大的影響”。

Still, the advent of electric cars poses a risk to both palladium and platinum, because they use no catalysts.

不過(guò)，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的出現(xiàn)給鈀和鉑帶來(lái)了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)樗鼈儾皇褂萌魏未呋瘎?br />