Lex專欄：滴滴的天價(jià)估值說明什么

All hail the glorious future of ride-hailing domination. It is unclear what investors are hoping for when they sink $4bn into Didi Chuxing, a Chinese giant in the field. But a funding round that values the private group at $56bn requires bold assumptions about market power.

歡呼叫車服務(wù)主導(dǎo)一切的輝煌未來。人們不清楚投資者向該領(lǐng)域的中國巨擘滴滴出行(Didi Chuxing)投資40億美元的意圖是什么。但通過這輪募資，這家私有集團(tuán)的估值達(dá)到了560億美元，這意味著人們需要對(duì)其市場(chǎng)威力做出大膽假設(shè)。

Didi, China’s market leader, wants to use its new cash to fuel expansion, buy electric vehicles, build charging points and invest in artificial intelligence. Didi could also take on Uber overseas after forcing the US giant out of China.

滴滴是中國叫車市場(chǎng)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，該公司希望利用此次籌得的資金推動(dòng)擴(kuò)張，購買電動(dòng)車，建造充電樁以及投資人工智能。滴滴也可能在境外市場(chǎng)挑戰(zhàn)優(yōu)步(Uber)，此前，滴滴已迫使這家美國巨擘退出中國市場(chǎng)。

That battle involves a complicated relationship. SoftBank, a participant in the round alongside a sovereign fund, had already invested in Didi. It also has stakes in Uber and rivals such as India’s Ola and Southeast Asian group Grab.

這場(chǎng)鏖戰(zhàn)牽涉到的關(guān)系錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜。與一家主權(quán)基金共同參與此輪滴滴籌資的軟銀集團(tuán)(SoftBank)此前已是滴滴的投資者。但軟銀也持有優(yōu)步及滴滴其它競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的股份，如印度的Ola和東南亞的Grab。

Oddly for two rivals, Uber and Didi own stakes in each other. The latter has also invested in Ola and Grab.

對(duì)優(yōu)步和滴滴這兩家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手而言，奇怪的是它們互相持有對(duì)方的股份。同時(shí)滴滴也投資于Ola和Grab。

To justify a valuation on the scale of Didi’s will require the company to one day be responsible for tens of billions of rides a year. That means taking market share from Uber, a reasonable hope at a time when it has been hit by various ethical scandals, but a harder long-term aspiration.

要證明滴滴估值規(guī)模的合理性，將需要該公司有朝一日每年服務(wù)于數(shù)百億次出行。那將意味著搶走優(yōu)步的市場(chǎng)份額，在優(yōu)步受到各種道德丑聞打擊之際，這是一個(gè)合理愿景，但作為一項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)期抱負(fù)難度就會(huì)更大。

Another alternative would be to charge higher prices, once dominance of individual markets has been achieved by driving out weaker competitors. Yet the existence of a few very well-funded groups suggests it will be hard to reach such an equilibrium without the help of rivals. That would definitely attract the attention of watchdogs, who, like Lex, see them as lightly regulated taxi companies.

另一個(gè)選擇是抬高收費(fèi)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，只要滴滴能將處于弱勢(shì)地位的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手們驅(qū)逐出各個(gè)市場(chǎng)。然而，好幾家資金雄厚的集團(tuán)仍然存在，似乎表明若沒有對(duì)手的幫助，將很難達(dá)到這樣的均衡狀態(tài)。而那肯定會(huì)引起監(jiān)管者的注意，他們就像本專欄一樣，把這些公司視為監(jiān)管寬松的出租車企業(yè)。

Or there are the investor fantasies which involve a dose of science fiction. The swift rise to power of the big ride-hailing groups seems to lead to an assumption they could dominate fleets of autonomous vehicles as well.

抑或投資者在做白日夢(mèng)，而且這些夢(mèng)帶有一定程度的科幻含量。大型叫車集團(tuán)的快速崛起似乎引發(fā)了一個(gè)假設(shè)，即它們也有望支配自動(dòng)駕駛車隊(duì)。

If investors are willing to throw money at transport dominance now, what else is likely to get billions in funding as the technology develops? As long as the music plays, investors will dream big and keep paying.

如果說投資者現(xiàn)在愿意向運(yùn)輸霸主地位砸錢，那么隨著技術(shù)的發(fā)展，還有什么可能獲得巨額資金?只要音樂在繼續(xù)演奏，投資者就會(huì)大膽做夢(mèng)，并繼續(xù)砸錢。