Lex專欄：為吉利/沃爾沃交易點贊

Contrary to popular myth, truckers do not pick up hitchhikers any longer. Most haulage companies forbid that practice. AB Volvo, the Swedish maker of 18 wheelers, has no choice in the matter. On Wednesday, Volvo dropped off one rider, activist fund Cevian Capital, in exchange for another: privately held Geely Holding of China. The former will sell its 8.2 per cent stake to Geely in a deal worth €3.25bn. For both sides, the deal makes sense.

與流行的神話相反，卡車司機再也不讓搭便車的人上車了。多數(shù)運輸公司禁止這種做法。瑞典的18輪大卡車制造商沃爾沃集團(Volvo Group)在這件事上沒有選擇。周三，沃爾沃讓一個車手——維權(quán)基金Cevian Capital——下車，換上另一個車手：私有的中國吉利控股(Geely Holding)。前者將以32.5億歐元將其所持的8.2%股份出售給吉利。這筆交易對雙方都是有道理的。

Cevian had ridden this investment far enough. Not only had the Volvo holding made a hefty profit of €2bn, but its trucks took up a fifth of Cevian’s portfolio. That is a lot of parking space. Moreover, Volvo has come a long way since operating profits bottomed. This year its earnings should hit nearly €30bn, more than triple that of 2013. And its margins, once well below global peers, should mark a record high at 9 per cent. Given that turnround, Cevian could see that an activist’s input was not needed.

Cevian駕馭這項投資已經(jīng)夠久了。這筆沃爾沃股份不僅為其帶來20億歐元巨額利潤，而且占了Cevian投資組合的五分之一。那是很大的配置比例。而且，沃爾沃自營業(yè)利潤觸底以來已經(jīng)走了很長一段路。2017年其收入將達到近300億歐元，是2013年的三倍以上。其利潤率一度遠低于全球同行，2017年應(yīng)該能創(chuàng)下9%的歷史新高。考慮到這樣的局面扭轉(zhuǎn)，Cevian可以看出，這家卡車制造商不再需要維權(quán)投資者的意見了。

Geely has happily taken Cevian’s place in the cab. The Chinese conglomerate had only one obvious gap in its portfolio: trucks. It already has passenger cars (Volvo Cars, Geely), performance cars (Lotus, Polestar) and even a bank (Saxo Bank) to create a financing arm. AB Volvo owns 45 per cent of China’s number four truckmaker Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles. Heavy duty trucks unit sales there have soared, likely up 53 per cent this year to a new record, according to Handelsbanken. Even if that pace slows next year, Geely will expect to pass some of what it has learnt on autonomous driving technology, and electric cars, to the truck business.

吉利愉快地接手Cevian在駕駛室中的位置。這家中國企業(yè)集團的資產(chǎn)組合只有一個明顯的缺口：卡車。它已經(jīng)有乘用車(沃爾沃汽車(Volvo Cars)、吉利)，高性能車(蓮花(Lotus)、北極星(Polestar))，甚至還有一家銀行(盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank))來創(chuàng)建一個融資部門。沃爾沃集團擁有中國第四大卡車制造商——東風(fēng)商用車(Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles) 45%股份。根據(jù)瑞典商業(yè)銀行(Handelsbanken)的數(shù)據(jù)，中國的重型卡車銷售量猛增，2017年有望增長53%，創(chuàng)下新的紀錄。即使增速在2018年放緩，預(yù)計吉利也會將其在自主駕駛技術(shù)和電動汽車領(lǐng)域掌握的一些專長傳遞給這家卡車企業(yè)。

More to the point, China’s truck market is changing. At the beginning of this decade, public works projects determined demand. This year, private consumption will drive truck sales. Geely has taken a small bet on this market shift. Though the Chinese group is unlikely to bring Volvo cars and trucks together again, its holding in AB Volvo should grow in the years ahead.

更為關(guān)鍵的是，中國的卡車市場正在發(fā)生變化。在本10年初期，公共工程項目決定著需求。2017年，私人消費推動卡車銷售。吉利對這一市場轉(zhuǎn)變投下一個小小的賭注。盡管這家中資集團不太可能將沃爾沃的汽車和卡車業(yè)務(wù)再度整合起來，但其在沃爾沃集團的持股比例應(yīng)該會在未來幾年上升。