美中就應對朝鮮政權崩潰可能性舉行磋商

The US and China have broached the once taboo subject of how to work together in the event of a collapse of the North Korean regime, a sign that Beijing is taking seriously the threat of war on the Korean peninsula.

美國和中國探討了一度是禁忌的話題：在朝鮮政權崩潰的情況下如何展開合作?這個跡象表明北京方面正在認真對待朝鮮半島戰(zhàn)爭威脅。

Previously Beijing had refused to discuss contingency plans for a North Korea conflict, for fear of worsening an already tense relationship with Pyongyang. Such a move might also provoke members of China’s nationalist-minded elite, who can regard such talks as conspiring against a communist ally.

以往北京方面拒絕討論針對朝鮮沖突的應急預案，擔心這可能使中朝之間本已緊張的關系變得更糟。這樣的舉動也可能惹惱中國某些民族主義意識較強的精英階層成員，這些人可能把這樣的磋商視為合謀反對一個共產黨盟友。

However, last month the first such discussions were held in Washington between the Chinese and US militaries. Major General Shao Yuanming, deputy chief of China’s joint staff department, met Lieutenant General Richard Clarke of the US joint chiefs of staff for the first meeting of a new “China-US joint staff dialogue mechanism”, according to China’s ministry of defence.

然而，上月中美軍方在華盛頓舉行了首次這樣的討論。根據(jù)中國國防部發(fā)布的消息，中國中央軍委聯(lián)合參謀部副參謀長邵元明少將與美國參謀長聯(lián)席會議(Joint Chiefs of Staff)的理查德•克拉克(Richard Clarke)中將，在新的“中美兩軍聯(lián)合參謀部對話機制”下舉行了首次會議。

The talks had been agreed in August when General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, travelled to Beijing, according to Chinese analysts and officials.

據(jù)中國分析人士和官員透露，這一對話機制是在美國參謀長聯(lián)席會議主席約瑟夫•鄧福德(Joseph Dunford)上將8月訪華期間商定的。

Whether North Korea was raised at these talks was unclear until last Tuesday, when Rex Tillerson, US secretary of state, said during remarks at the Atlantic Council that the US had assured China that it would not occupy North Korea in the event of a conflict.

外界原來不清楚雙方在會上有沒有談到朝鮮問題，但在上周二，美國國務卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)在大西洋理事會(Atlantic Council)發(fā)表演講期間表示，美國已向中國作出保證：如果發(fā)生沖突，美國不會占領朝鮮。

“We have given the Chinese assurances we would . . . retreat back to the south of the 38th parallel,” he said, referring to the border between the two Koreas.

“我方已經給了中方保證，我們會……撤回到三八線以南，”他表示。三八線指的是韓朝邊界。

Paul Haenle, a former US National Security Council official under President George W Bush, said China’s appetite to hold such talks was new. “In the Bush administration we tried to have those conversations and the Chinese were very reluctant to engage.

曾在喬治•W•布什(George W Bush)手下的國家安全委員會(National Security Council)任職的韓磊(Paul Haenle)表示，中國愿意舉行這類磋商是一件新事。“在布什政府時期，我們曾試圖進行這些對話，而中方非常不愿意參與。

“They didn’t want to be perceived as doing secret planning with the United States about the collapse of the regime because they thought it would make the situation worse. But I think they’re probably more willing to have those conversations today,.

“他們不希望被視為與美國一道就平壤政權倒臺作出秘密計劃，因為他們認為那會使情況變得更糟。但我認為，如今他們可能更愿意進行這些對話。”

Meanwhile, South Korean media reported on Monday that China last year conducted a military exercise where it practised taking control of nuclear facilities similar to North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor.

與此同時，據(jù)韓國媒體周一報道，去年中國進行了一次軍事演習，演練了控制類似朝鮮寧邊反應堆的核設施的作戰(zhàn)。

China’s ministry of defence did not immediately respond to request for comment.

中國國防部沒有立即回應記者的置評請求。

Jia Qingguo, dean of the Peking University School of International Studies, said the main factors keeping Chinese leaders from talking to the US in the past were lack of trust and the low probability of a conflict. But today they believe a crisis in North Korea is more probable.

北京大學國際關系學院院長賈慶國表示，過去阻止中國領導人與美國交談的主要因素是缺乏信任和爆發(fā)沖突的可能性較小。但如今他們相信朝鮮爆發(fā)危機的幾率更高了。

Military co-ordination between the US and China is still a sensitive matter — Beijing is technically part of a military alliance with Pyongyang that dates from 1961. Though few believe China would come to its neighbour’s aid in the event of a conflict, China is unlikely to stay on the sidelines, either.

中美之間的軍事協(xié)調仍然是一個敏感問題——從技術上講，中朝從1961年起一直是一個軍事聯(lián)盟。盡管很少有人相信中國會在沖突中幫助鄰國，但中國也不太可能坐在一邊觀望。

Chinese analysts say a probable Chinese response to conflict would be to occupy a zone inside the Chinese border with North Korea along the Yalu river, perhaps tens of kilometres deep, to stem tides of refugees.

中國分析人士認為，面對一場沖突，中國很有可能作出的回應是在沿著鴨綠江的中朝邊境中國境內劃出一個緩沖區(qū)，其縱深可能有數(shù)十公里，以便堵住難民人潮。

“When war becomes a real possibility, China must be prepared. And, with this in mind, China must be more willing to consider talks with concerned countries on contingency plans,” Mr Jia wrote in September.

賈慶國在9月撰文寫道，戰(zhàn)爭或已成為一種現(xiàn)實可能，中國必須防患于未然;現(xiàn)在中國政府應更多地著眼于與相關國家磋商并制定應急方案。

Yun Sun, a senior associate with the East Asia programme of the Stimson Center, a Washington-based security think-tank, said that any discussion between the US and China on North Korea would by definition be vague at this stage.

華盛頓安全問題智庫史汀生中心(Stimson Center)東亞項目高級研究員孫云表示，現(xiàn)階段中美之間就朝鮮進行的任何討論都必然是模糊的。

“There is a big difference between contingency planning and conversations about contingencies,” she said.

“應急規(guī)劃和關于突發(fā)事件的對話之間有很大區(qū)別，”她表示。

Additional reporting by Sherry Ju 俱菲(Sherry Ju)補充報道