中哈邊境貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀與“一帶一路”雄心

Soaring mountains and golden plains surround the nascent city of Khorgos, one of the most important land transport hubs planned for China’s New Silk Road.

崇山峻嶺和金色的平原環(huán)繞著年輕的霍爾果斯市，這里是中國“新絲綢之路”倡議中規(guī)劃的最重要陸路交通樞紐之一。

But despite hundreds of millions of dollars of investment, the majority of traders here on China’s border with Kazakhstan, among the planet’s furthest points from the ocean, still rely on maritime routes to receive imported goods.

然而，盡管吸引了以數(shù)億美元計的投資，這里的大多數(shù)貿(mào)易商仍依靠海運來接收進(jìn)口貨物?；魻柟故械靥幹袊c哈薩克斯坦接壤的邊境地區(qū)，是地球上距離海洋最遠(yuǎn)的地區(qū)之一。

“I would rather my goods take 10 times as long to get to Khorgos but be sure they arrive on time,” says Jia Xiubing, who imports European snacks through the Chinese ports of Qingdao and Tianjin, which lie about 4,000km east by road or rail. Traders say Khorgos’s showpiece free trade zone is blighted by chronic delays, high costs and limits on what can be imported.

“我寧愿我的貨物多花10倍時間運到霍爾果斯，只要確保能準(zhǔn)時運到，”賈秀秉(音)說，他通過青島港和天津港進(jìn)口歐洲小食品，這兩個中國港口城市距離霍爾果斯大約4000公里的公路或鐵路里程。貿(mào)易商們表示，霍爾果斯示范性的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)存在著一些問題，包括拖延時間長、成本高以及進(jìn)口商品種類受限。

With investments ranging from ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka to high-speed railways in east Africa to gas pipelines crossing central Asia, China’s $900bn Belt and Road Initiative is arguably the largest overseas investment drive ever launched by a single country.

從巴基斯坦、斯里蘭卡的港口，到東非的高鐵，再到穿越中亞的天然氣管道，中國提出的擬投資9000億美元的“一帶一路”倡議(Belt and Road Initiative)可以說是單個國家發(fā)起的史上最大規(guī)模的海外投資行動。

But the problems, along with other logistical difficulties of transporting goods through central Asia to Europe, illustrate the shaky ground beneath China’s ambitious plans to boost its global influence and bolster slowing growth.

但上述那些問題，以及通過中亞向歐洲運輸貨物過程中物流方面的其他困難，暴露出中國這項提升自身全球影響力和刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的宏偉計劃缺乏堅實基礎(chǔ)。

Khorgos is a crucial hub in the transport network linking China and Europe. By 2020 it will house the world’s largest “dry port”, where 4m tonnes of goods a year can be stored and transferred between Chinese and Kazakh trains, which run on a different gauge.

霍爾果斯是連接中國與歐洲的運輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的一個重要樞紐。到2020年，這里將建成世界最大的“干港”，每年存放和通過列車轉(zhuǎn)運的貨物可達(dá)400萬噸左右(中哈兩國鐵路的軌距不同)。

However, it is one of China’s slowest outbound border crossings. Goods take an average of 10.6 hours to cross into Kazakhstan — almost twice as long as those moving in the opposite direction, according to the Central Asia Regional Economic Co-operation (Carec) programme, a trade organisation.

然而，這里是中國效率最慢的出境口岸之一。貿(mào)易組織“中亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作”(CAREC)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，貨物進(jìn)入哈薩克斯坦平均要耗時10.6個小時，幾乎是反向通關(guān)所用時間的兩倍。

“Customs processes are actually very fast on the China side. It is getting goods through the Kazakh side that can be very unpredictable and costs twice as much in customs fees,” says Alim, a Chinese Uighur confectionery trader.

中國維吾爾族糖果貿(mào)易商阿利姆(Alim)稱：“中方一側(cè)的海關(guān)手續(xù)實際上非?？?。但哈方一側(cè)的貨物通關(guān)時間非常難料，且通關(guān)費用翻倍。”

Most goods have to be unloaded and stored in bonded warehouses, sometimes for days, as they await clearance from the customs regimes either side of the border. The cost of unloading train cargo remains the highest among trade corridors Carec monitors, putting Khorgos among central Asia’s most expensive border crossings.

大多數(shù)貨物必須卸下，存放在保稅倉庫中，有時需要數(shù)日，因為要等待邊界某一邊的海關(guān)當(dāng)局清關(guān)。這里的貨運列車卸貨費用在CAREC追蹤的貿(mào)易走廊中仍是最高的，使霍爾果斯成為中亞通關(guān)成本最高的邊境口岸之一。

And the problems are not limited to Khorgos, which lies in the Chinese frontier region of Xinjiang that borders three central Asian nations.

而且，這些問題不只存在于霍爾果斯，該市位于中國的新疆境內(nèi)，這個邊疆省份與三個中亞國家毗鄰。

A free-trade zone set to open this year in the regional capital of Urumqi has been delayed “because the local government has not been able to decide on logistics operations and a customs regime with partners”, according to a zone employee who declined to be named because of a lack of authorisation to discuss the matter.

原定今年在新疆首府烏魯木齊開通一個自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的計劃已被推遲，“因為當(dāng)?shù)卣茨軌蚓臀锪骱秃ｊP(guān)制度與合作方做出決定”，一位拒絕透露姓名的自貿(mào)區(qū)雇員表示，他稱自己未獲授權(quán)討論此事。

Jonathan Hillman, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says: “More efficient border procedures will be key — even more important than building new roads.”

華盛頓戰(zhàn)略與國際問題研究中心(CSIS)研究員喬納森•希爾曼(Jonathan Hillman)表示：“更高效的通關(guān)程序?qū)⑹顷P(guān)鍵——甚至比修建新公路更重要。”

Kazakh officials deny that shipments pass into Kazakhstan slower. Almaty, meanwhile, remains bullish on bilateral ties. Cross-border trade between the two countries increased 100-fold in the five years to 2016 and is on track to double this year to 200,000 containers a year, according to Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry. Kazakh officials say their country accounts for 70 per cent of China-Europe transit traffic.

哈薩克斯坦官員否認(rèn)進(jìn)入哈薩克斯坦的通關(guān)速度較慢。與此同時，阿拉木圖方面仍對雙邊合作保持樂觀態(tài)度。哈薩克斯坦外交部表示，兩國間跨境貿(mào)易在截至2016年的5年間增長了100倍，今年貿(mào)易量有望翻倍達(dá)到20萬個集裝箱。哈薩克斯坦官員表示，哈薩克斯坦占到中歐過境貿(mào)易的70%。

“The government of Kazakhstan wants to ensure that it continues to develop as a key transportation hub in Eurasia that plays a crucial role in connecting and enabling trade between east and west,” says Roman Vassilenko, deputy foreign minister.

哈薩克斯坦外交部副部長羅曼•瓦西連科(Roman Vassilenko)表示：“哈薩克斯坦政府希望確保本國作為歐亞大陸重要交通樞紐繼續(xù)發(fā)展，在連接?xùn)|西方和促進(jìn)貿(mào)易方面發(fā)揮至關(guān)重要的作用。”

But the positive sentiments are not universally shared across the border, where critics believe Kazakhstan has been freeriding on China’s goodwill.

但這種積極情緒在中方一側(cè)并不多見，中國國內(nèi)的批評人士認(rèn)為，哈薩克斯坦一直在利用中方的善意搭便車。

Chinese development in Khorgos dwarfs that on the Kazakh side, where only 25 of 63 projects have investors, according to Ravil Budukov, the zone’s former press secretary. “China has provided all the money” for Kazakhstan’s roads and high-speed rail links, says a Chinese trade official in Xinjiang. “And we do not expect anything back.”

霍爾果斯自由貿(mào)易區(qū)前新聞秘書拉維爾•布杜科夫(Ravil Budukov)稱，中國在霍爾果斯的發(fā)展令哈薩克斯坦一側(cè)相形見絀，哈方的63個項目中只有25個獲得了投資。“中國已向哈薩克斯坦提供了全部資金”用于其公路與高鐵線路的修建，新疆的一位貿(mào)易官員稱，“而且我們完全不求回報。”

While Kazakhstan’s leaders have welcomed Chinese investment, analysts say the country remains deeply suspicious of Beijing’s motives.

雖然哈薩克斯坦的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對中國的投資表示歡迎，但分析人士指出，該國對北京方面的動機仍深感懷疑。

“The larger the Chinese presence in central Asia, the stronger the anti-China sentiments,” says Daniyar Kosnazarov, of Narxoz University in Almaty. “Nationalist sentiments and enthusiasm for Chinese investment are living an uneasy coexistence but the ice is getting thinner and thinner.”

“中國在中亞地區(qū)的影響力越大，反華情緒就越強，”阿拉木圖Narxoz大學(xué)的達(dá)尼亞爾•科斯納扎羅夫(Daniyar Kosnazarov)說。“民族主義情緒和對中國投資的熱情不和諧地共存，但局面越發(fā)緊張。”

In April last year, thousands took to the streets over concerns about legal changes that would allow Chinese investors would buy up valuable real estate. “There is a lot of fear among Kazakhs about the country being overrun by Chinese,” says Dmitriy Frolovskiy, a Moscow-based central Asia analyst. “It has to face the world’s second economy and one of the strongest armies, which could conquer it within days.”

去年4月，數(shù)千人走上街頭示威，擔(dān)心法律修訂會允許中國的投資者大量買進(jìn)寶貴的地產(chǎn)。“許多哈薩克人害怕中國人大量涌入他們國家，”莫斯科的一位研究中亞問題的分析師德米特里•弗羅洛夫斯基(Dmitriy Frolovskiy)表示。“哈薩克斯坦不得不面對世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體及世界最強大的軍隊之一，中國的軍事力量能在幾天之內(nèi)征服哈薩克斯坦。”

Kazakhstan has traditionally gravitated towards Russia, itself wary of China’s growing clout in central Asia, for political and economic patronage. A deeply Russified cultural legacy remains in the former Soviet republic, with most ethnic Kazakhs on the border using Russian, rather than Mandarin, as the lingua franca of trade.

為得到政治庇護(hù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)援助，哈薩克斯坦傳統(tǒng)上是親俄的，俄本身就十分提防中國在中亞地區(qū)日益增長的影響力。這個前蘇維埃社會主義共和國仍保留著俄羅斯化的文化遺產(chǎn)，大多數(shù)生活在中哈邊境的哈薩克人將俄語、而不是漢語普通話用作貿(mào)易通用語。

“People are always going to look after their own interests,” says Su Gang of the Xinjiang Uighur Logistics Association, which monitors trade in the region. “That’s what we call trade protectionism.”

“人們總是關(guān)心自身的利益，”新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)物流學(xué)會(Xinjiang Uighur Logistics Association)的理事蘇剛(音)說，“這就是我們所說的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義。”

That extends to the Khorgos free-trade zone.

這種情況也出現(xiàn)在霍爾果斯自由貿(mào)易區(qū)。

Kazakhstan, as a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, limits imports to 50kg or €1,500 worth of undeclared goods per person per month. China, worried that cheap Kazakh imports could hurt domestic producers, bans most agricultural products from entering through the tax-free zone.

作為俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的“歐亞經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟”(Eurasian Economic Union)中的一員，哈薩克斯坦只允許每人每月進(jìn)口50公斤或價值1500歐元的未申報貨物。而中國擔(dān)心廉價的哈薩克進(jìn)口商品會損害國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)者的利益，禁止通過該免稅區(qū)進(jìn)口大部分農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。

That limits all but small-scale trade from surviving in Khorgos, where buyers and sellers haggle over socks, bedding and packaged food in dimly lit malls.

除小規(guī)模貿(mào)易以外，這些限制使一切貿(mào)易在霍爾果斯都難以為繼。在霍爾果斯光線昏暗的商場里，買賣雙方就襪子、床上用品和包裝食品討價還價。

This falls far short of what many traders had in mind when they set up shop, says Xiang Wu, a textile trader: “No matter how hard you work, there is a glass ceiling on how much money you can make here.”

這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于很多商販開店時的預(yù)期，一位名叫向武(音)的紡織品小販說：“不管你多努力工作，在這兒能掙到的錢還是有限。”