英國退歐、特朗普以及無能的一代

I didn’t want Brexit, but I assumed the Brexiters had a plan. I didn’t think Donald Trump had a plan, but I assumed the Republicans did. They didn’t. Whether you like these people or not, the question is: why are they incompetent?

我不希望英國退歐，但我曾假定退歐派胸有成竹。我不認(rèn)為唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)有什么打算，但我以為共和黨心中有數(shù)。結(jié)果他們都沒有。無論你是否喜歡這些人，問題是：他們?yōu)槭裁慈绱藷o能?

It seems that the Brexiters really thought the EU would just bow to their demands; that they never imagined the Irish border might be a problem. Even now, the cabinet still hasn’t discussed what sort of Brexit it wants. Last week’s deal with the EU may leave the UK tracking Irish regulations for ever (or as Brexiters call it, “freedom”).

退歐派似乎真的以為歐盟會屈服于他們的要求;他們似乎也從沒想過愛爾蘭邊境可能成為麻煩。即使現(xiàn)在，英國內(nèi)閣仍然沒有討論出它想要的退歐方案。上上周英國與歐盟簽署的“離婚協(xié)議”可能會讓英國永遠跟蹤愛爾蘭的監(jiān)管制度(而退歐派稱之為“自由”)。

In the US, when Republicans finally got their chance to abolish Obamacare, it turned out they had spent seven years not preparing an alternative. Much of their tax bill got handwritten overnight by lobbyists. And Russiagate’s key characteristic is amateurism. Mike Flynn and others didn’t declare obvious contacts with foreign officials, assuming nobody would notice. Trump appeared to incriminate himself by tweeting that he knew Flynn broke the law, but then his lawyer said he’d written the tweet. Richard Nixon’s downfall was not his crime but his cover-up; this time there’s hardly any cover-up. The only comparable folly in recent US-UK history is the Iraq war. So what explains this incompetence?

在美國，當(dāng)共和黨終于有機會廢除奧巴馬醫(yī)改(Obamacare)時，事實卻顯示他們過去七年一直沒有準(zhǔn)備替代方案。他們稅改法案的大部分是游說者們連夜寫出來的。而“通俄門”的關(guān)鍵特征是業(yè)余。邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)和其他人并沒有聲明自己與外國官員的明顯接觸，以為沒人會注意到。特朗普發(fā)推文稱他知道弗林觸犯了法律，似乎使自己牽連其中，但隨后他的律師說是自己寫的這條推文。理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)下臺不是因為他的罪行，而是他試圖掩蓋罪行;而這一次幾乎沒有任何遮掩。美英近期歷史中唯一能與此相提并論的蠢事是伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭。那么如何解釋這種無能呢?

It’s useful here to recall the contrast — often drawn in the US in the 1990s — between the “greatest generation” who fought the second world war, and the baby boomers. From the 1940s until the 1990s, most politicians in both countries were men who had fought a world war. That experience shaped them. Harold Macmillan, British prime minister from 1957 to 1963, had been wounded five times in the first world war. Once, after being hit in the knee and pelvis, he lay in a shell hole for 12 hours, medicating himself with morphine, playing dead when Germans came near, and reading Aeschylus in the original Greek, writes Richard Davenport-Hines in An English Affair.

這里有必要回憶一下參加過二戰(zhàn)的“最偉大的一代”和嬰兒潮一代之間的對比，這是上世紀(jì)90年代在美國經(jīng)常做的對比。從上世紀(jì)40年代到90年代，英美兩國多數(shù)政客都是曾參加過世界大戰(zhàn)的男性。這段經(jīng)歷塑造了他們。在1957年至1963年期間擔(dān)任英國首相的哈羅德•麥克米倫(Harold Macmillan)在一戰(zhàn)中五次負(fù)傷。根據(jù)理查德•達文波特-海因斯(Richard Davenport-Hines)在《英國事件》(An English Affair)所寫，麥克米倫曾經(jīng)有一次膝蓋和盆骨被擊中，在炮彈坑里躺了12個小時，期間他給自己使用嗎啡，當(dāng)?shù)聡丝拷鼤r裝死，讀埃斯庫羅斯(Aeschylus，埃斯庫羅斯是古希臘悲劇詩人——編者注)的希臘語原版著作。

Macmillan reflected much later that posh officers such as himself, leading working-class troops, “learnt for the first time how to . . . feel at home with a whole class with whom we could not have come into contact in any other way”. In addition, he was responsible for their lives. No wonder he never afterwards shook the “inside feeling that something awful and unknown was about to happen”. As prime minister, writes Davenport-Hines, he sometimes spent weekends hiding in bed.

麥克米倫在很久后表示，像他本人這樣領(lǐng)導(dǎo)工人階級隊伍的出身上流社會的軍官，“第一次學(xué)到了如何……與我們本來絕不可能接觸到的一整個階級自在相處”。此外，他還要對他們的生命負(fù)責(zé)。難怪他之后再也沒能擺脫掉“一些可怕和未知的事情即將發(fā)生的內(nèi)心感受”。達文波特-海因斯寫道，當(dāng)首相時，有時他整個周末都躲在床上。

You could tell similar stories about Clement Attlee (badly wounded in Iraq in the first world war, prime minister 1945-1951), John F Kennedy and George HW Bush. In 1975, 81 per cent of US senators were military veterans, says the Pew Research Center. Experience of war doesn’t guarantee seriousness (see Flynn) but it helps.

你可以講出關(guān)于克萊門特•艾德禮(Clement Attlee)、約翰•F•肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)以及老布什(George HW Bush)的類似故事。艾德禮1945年至1951年擔(dān)任英國首相，一戰(zhàn)時他在伊拉克身受重傷。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)表示，1975年美國參議員中81%的人都是退伍老兵。參戰(zhàn)經(jīng)歷并不一定確保他們嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)盡責(zé)(參照弗林)，但確實有幫助。

Other 20th-century leaders of these countries — Lyndon B Johnson, Bill Clinton, John Major — had a different visceral experience: poverty. They too knew in their bones that government mattered.

英美兩國其他的20世紀(jì)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人——林登•B•約翰遜(Lyndon B. Johnson)、比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)、約翰•梅杰(John Major)——則有另一種不同的深切經(jīng)歷：貧窮。他們也打骨子里清楚地知道政府的重要性。

But both countries have now fallen into the hands of well-off baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964 — the luckiest members of the luckiest generation in history. These people had no formative experiences, only TV shows. They never expected anything awful or unknown to happen. They went into politics mostly for kicks. The paradigmatic shift was from George HW Bush (born 1924) to his son (born 1946). Like Trump, Bush Jr spent much of his early presidency on vacation. Then 9/11 jolted him into frenzied activity: the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

但是兩國如今落到了條件優(yōu)渥的嬰兒潮一代(1946年至1964年之間出生)的政客手中，他們是歷史上最幸運的一代人中最幸運的成員。這些人沒有形成其責(zé)任感的成長經(jīng)歷，影響他們的只有電視節(jié)目。他們從不會預(yù)想可怕或未知的事情會發(fā)生。他們從政主要是追求刺激。典型轉(zhuǎn)變是從老布什(1924年出生)到他的兒子小布什(1946年出生)。和特朗普一樣，小布什總統(tǒng)任期初期的大量時間都在度假。之后的9•11事件使他陷入瘋狂行動中：阿富汗戰(zhàn)爭和伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭。

It’s often said that today’s politicians have no experience outside politics, but they do. Bush Jr ran a baseball club, Boris Johnson wrote funny columns, and Trump played a successful businessman on television. Along the way they learnt a skill their predecessors mostly lacked: performing on mass media.

人們常說，如今的政客除了政治外沒有任何經(jīng)驗，但其實他們有。小布什經(jīng)營過棒球俱樂部，鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)寫過有趣的專欄，特朗普在電視上扮演過成功商人。他們在這一路上學(xué)到了前輩通常缺乏的技巧：在大眾媒體上表演。

Then came populism, which validated amateurism. No need for “experts” — anyone could do the job. Thoughtful people who couldn’t bellow simplifications on TV drifted out of politics.

之后民粹主義崛起，讓業(yè)余變得名正言順。不需要“專家”——任何人都可以勝任。做不到在電視上大聲喊出簡單口號的有識之士，退出了政治圈。

Populism polarised. So the new governments selected people for their loyalty to the cause. Theresa May, as prime minister, had to give the “three Brexiteers”, Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox, jobs for which nothing in their experience had prepared them. Days after Trump’s election, his daughter Ivanka seized control of a transition meeting, praised Flynn’s “amazing loyalty”, and asked him, “General, what job do you want?” This month in Alabama’s senate race, Trump endorsed another loyalist: alleged paedophile Roy Moore.

民粹主義呈現(xiàn)兩極化。因此，新政府選人是根據(jù)他們的忠誠。英國首相特里薩•梅(Theresa May)不得不讓約翰遜、戴維•戴維斯(David Davis)和亞姆•福克斯(Liam Fox)“退歐三劍客”擔(dān)任他們沒有任何經(jīng)驗的職位。在特朗普當(dāng)選后幾天，他的女兒伊萬卡(Ivanka)就掌握了對過渡團隊的控制，稱贊弗林“不可思議的忠誠”，并且問他“將軍，你想要什么職位?”本月在阿拉巴馬州參議員競選中，特朗普為另一名效忠者背書：涉嫌戀童癖的羅伊•摩爾(Roy Moore)。

So we’re left with an insouciant, inexperienced political class of mostly ageing white men. Thankfully, that will soon change. Everyone raised under baby-boomer rule has learnt that awful and unknown things can happen anytime. Brexit and Trump have mobilised a generation of young people, taught them that government matters, and shown that not screwing up is a lofty goal. Unprecedented numbers of US women — most of them born post boom — are now seeking election at every political level. In the Senate, there are about 10 times more female candidates than in 2014. They will have a generation’s worth of mess to clean up.

所以我們現(xiàn)在面對著這群大多由年邁的白人男性組成的漫不經(jīng)心、缺乏經(jīng)驗的政治階層。謝天謝地，這種情況很快就會改變。所有在嬰兒潮一代領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人統(tǒng)治下成長起來的人們都知道，可怕和未知的事情隨時可能發(fā)生。英國退歐和特朗普激發(fā)了年輕的一代，讓他們明白政府很重要，向他們展示了不搞砸事情是一個遠大的目標(biāo)。如今在各個政治層面上尋求參選的美國女性達到了前所未有的人數(shù)，她們大多數(shù)人出生在嬰兒潮之后。在參議院，女性候選人的數(shù)量是2014年的10倍左右。他們將要清理一代人的爛攤子。