中國實體零售店的線下突圍之路

As investors in the US bet that traditional stores will not survive the “Amazon effect”, bricks and mortar stores in China’s $4.8tn retail market have maintained annual sales growth of about 10 per cent even as its ecommerce sector has become the world’s largest.

在美國投資者押注傳統(tǒng)商店將無法在“亞馬遜效應”下活下來之際，中國4.8萬億美元零售市場中的實體商店卻維持了大約10%的年銷售額增速，即便中國電商行業(yè)已成為世界上最大的電商行業(yè)。

China’s two largest ecommerce platforms Alibaba and JD.com racked up $44bn in gross merchandise value during this month’s Singles Day sales promotion. The haul symbolises the explosive growth in online sales in China, which last year were twice that of the US.

在11月的光棍節(jié)(Singles Day)促銷中，阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和京東(JD.com)這兩家中國最大電商平臺實現(xiàn)了440億美元的商品交易總額(GMV)。這顯示出中國線上銷售的爆炸性增長。去年，中國線上銷售額是美國的兩倍。

Among those Chinese shoppers who use ecommerce, more than 46 per cent of their retail purchases are made online, analysis by consultancy Mintel suggests. According to consultancy Euromonitor, about 35 per cent of Chinese consumer electronics purchases are made over the internet. But physical retailers are finding ways to survive and thrive.

咨詢公司Mintel的分析表明，在使用電商平臺的中國購物者中，他們零售采購的46%以上是在線上完成的。歐睿咨詢(Euromonitor)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國消費電子產(chǎn)品采購的約35%是通過互聯(lián)網(wǎng)完成的。但實體零售店也找到了活下去和發(fā)展壯大的辦法。

Mall operators have responded to the ecommerce onslaught by reducing space devoted to retail and increasing allocations for restaurants, cinemas and outlets offering extracurricular classes for children. Electronics retailers have added in-store experiences and reallocated floorspace for ecommerce distribution.

購物中心運營商應對電商進攻的方法，是減少專門用于零售的面積，增加餐館、電影院和兒童課外培訓網(wǎng)點的面積。電子產(chǎn)品零售商增加了店內(nèi)體驗，為電商銷售重新布置店內(nèi)空間。

Growth in both online and offline retail has been made possible by consistent gains in disposable incomes in China, which while slowing in recent years are still increasing at about 7 per cent annually.

中國人可支配收入的不斷提高，使得線上和線下零售同時增長變?yōu)榭赡?。中國人可支配收入雖然近年來增長在放緩，但仍維持在每年大約7%的水平。

Shanghai’s Joy City mall, which last year installed a gigantic Ferris wheel on its top floor to attract customers, was bustling on a recent Sunday. Eating with friends, 24-year-old Xiao Mingyue said she spent Rmb300 ($45) online during Singles Day, but prefers to shop in physical stores. “The discounts online are not really that great . . . and its hard to be sure of quality when buying online,” she says.

不久前的一個周日，上海大悅城(Joy City mall)十分熱鬧。去年，為了吸引顧客，上海大悅城在頂層安裝了一個巨大摩天輪。跟朋友一起吃飯的24歲的肖明月(音譯)說，她在光棍節(jié)那天的網(wǎng)購金額為300元人民幣(合45美元)，但她更喜歡在實體店購物。“網(wǎng)購折扣真的并沒有那么大……而且在網(wǎng)上購物時，很難對質(zhì)量感到放心，”她說。

But it has not been easy going for all retailers. Sales at China’s top 50 chains by revenue — mainly department stores, consumer electronics outlets and supermarkets — shrank between 2014 and 2016, according to China’s chain retail association.

但并非所有零售商都一帆風順。中國連鎖經(jīng)營協(xié)會表示，2014年至2016年，中國營收最高的50家連鎖店——主要是百貨商店、消費電子產(chǎn)品門店和超市——的銷售額有所降低。

In particular, “department stores are heavily exposed to online categories, such as apparel and cosmetics, while their key selling point was range — an advantage which eroded quite quickly”, says Alex Shutter, an analyst with consultancy Oliver Wyman.

特別是，“百貨商店受到服裝和化妝品等在線品類的重大沖擊，而它們的關(guān)鍵賣點是覆蓋范圍——這一優(yōu)勢被削弱得很快，”奧緯咨詢(Oliver Wyman)的分析師亞歷克斯•沙特爾(Alex Shutter)說。

Electronics stores Suning and Gome — China’s two largest bricks-and-mortar retailers by sales — closed dozens of stores in recent years.

電子產(chǎn)品商店蘇寧(Suning)和國美(Gome)——中國兩家銷售額最大的電器實體零售商——近些年關(guān)閉了數(shù)十家門店。

As Gome’s online business took off, same-store revenues at its physical stores declined between 2014 and 2016. “They were clearly impacted by ecommerce,” says Dylan Chu, an analyst at brokerage CLSA.

隨著國美線上業(yè)務的啟動，2014年至2016年其實體店的同店銷售額有所下降。“它們明顯受到了電商的影響，”經(jīng)紀商里昂證券(CLSA)的分析師Dylan Chu說。

But this year accelerating Chinese economic growth and rising house prices have underpinned a recovery in consumer confidence that has boosted sales even at department stores. The top 50 retailers’ revenues swung back to growth this year.

但是，今年中國經(jīng)濟增速提高和房價上漲支撐了消費者信心的復蘇，這甚至提振了百貨商店的銷售額。今年最大50家零售商的收入恢復了增長。

For Gome, the addition of experience-enhancing elements in stores, such as virtual reality zones, helped push up its offline sales 10.5 per cent year on year in the first half to $5.1bn, according to CLSA. Gome does not break out offline figures. Suning says offline sales rose 4.5 per cent to $7.6bn in same period.

里昂證券表示，國美在店內(nèi)增設虛擬現(xiàn)實區(qū)等增強體驗的元素，幫助把上半年的線下銷售同比提升10.5%，至51億美元。國美沒有提供線下分類數(shù)據(jù)。蘇寧表示，同期線下銷售額增長4.5%，至76億美元。

Department stores have also been boosted by a recovery in Chinese luxury spending since last year, according to Fitch analyst Cathy Chao, and many of them have switched to mall-like formats.

惠譽(Fitch)分析師Cathy Chao表示，自去年以來中國奢侈品消費的復蘇也提振了百貨商店，許多百貨商店已向購物中心業(yè)態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)型。

Convenience stores have a particular edge among offline retailers that have thrived, notching sales growth of 14 per cent last year, according to China’s retail association. Japanese chains such as 7-11 and FamilyMart are opening hundreds of stores a year while Lawson is expanding its store numbers in China by 40 per cent annually to reach about 1,500 by the end of this year.

中國連鎖經(jīng)營協(xié)會數(shù)據(jù)顯示，便利店在蓬勃發(fā)展的線下零售商當中擁有一種特殊優(yōu)勢，去年銷售額增長14%。7-11和全家(FamilyMart)等日本連鎖店每年在中國開設數(shù)百家門店，而羅森(Lawson)在中國的門店數(shù)量年增速為40%，到今年底將達到約1500家。

“It’s tough for delivery services to make money on low-cost snack foods,” says Zhang Cheng, head of Lawson’s China operations. “Ecommerce has only 1 per cent of the market for chilled products, so that is a core product for us.”

“送貨服務在低價快餐食品上很難賺到錢，”羅森中國業(yè)務負責人張晟說，“電商在冷凍食品市場僅占1%的份額，所以那是我們的一種核心產(chǎn)品。”

Total sales at China’s malls have increased more than 8 per cent on average for each of the past three years, according to official statistics — though much of that was driven by new openings, as Chinese mall development has led the world for several years with 5.75m square metres added last year, according to property services company CBRE.

官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，過去三年里，中國購物中心總銷售額平均增幅每年都高于8%——盡管增長主要是由新開門店驅(qū)動的。地產(chǎn)服務公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)表示，中國的購物中心開發(fā)已在幾年時間里引領(lǐng)世界，去年新增面積為575萬平方米。

“Shopping malls are becoming theme parks . . . it’s basically retail, entertainment and catering,” says Matthew Crabbe, an analyst at Mintel.

“購物中心正在變成主題公園——基本上涵蓋零售、娛樂和餐飲，”Mintel分析師馬修•克拉布(Matthew Crabbe)說。

Those new malls have attracted the likes of Zara, H&M, Uniqlo and Adidas to open hundreds of physical stores in China in recent years — and Jessie Qian, KPMG’s consumer head in China, says these outlets are taking market share from department stores.

近年來，這些新的購物中心已吸引了Zara、H&M、優(yōu)衣庫(Uniqlo)和阿迪達斯(Adidas)等在中國開設數(shù)百家實體店。畢馬威(KPMG)中國消費品業(yè)務負責人錢亦馨(Jessie Qian)表示，這些專賣店正從百貨商店手中搶奪市場份額。

Toy chains for their part remain bullish on offline retail. Toys R Us, which filed for bankruptcy in the US this year, says it foresees double-digit sales growth in China, where it plans to open 30 to 40 stores a year “for the next few years” to add to its current 150.

玩具連鎖店仍對線下零售感到樂觀。今年在美國申請破產(chǎn)的玩具反斗城(Toys R Us)表示，它預計中國市場銷售額會出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的增長，它打算在當前150家店的基礎(chǔ)上，“在未來幾年里”每年在中國新開30至40家門店。

“Physical stores are crucial to our investment strategy to maintaining growth,” says Jo Hall, a regional manager for the US toy chain in Asia. “It’s a very interactive experience, which is why our footfall is robust.” “實體店對于我們維持增長的投資戰(zhàn)略而言是至關(guān)重要的，”這家美國玩具連鎖店駐亞洲的地區(qū)經(jīng)理Jo Hall說，“這是一種互動性很強的體驗，是我們客流量強勁的原因。”

William Lo, chief financial officer for Kidsland, China’s largest toy retailer by market share, says ecommerce is generally less effective for toy sales because “kids need to experience the toys”.

中國市場份額最大的玩具零售商凱知樂(Kidsland)的財務總監(jiān)盧永仁(William Lo)表示，總體而言，電商對玩具銷售不太有效，因為“孩子們需要體驗玩具”。

Kidsland, which raised $40m in a Hong Kong initial public offering this month, operates 222 shops in China and plans 180 new ones over the next three years. “Even Alibaba is investing in physical stores these days,” says Mr Lo. “You need both.”

11月，凱知樂在香港首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)，融資4000萬美元。該公司目前在中國經(jīng)營著222家門店，并計劃未來三年新增180家門店。“如今就連阿里巴巴也在投資實體店，”盧永仁說，“你同時需要電商平臺和實體店。”

SIDE BAR: China: peak ecommerce?

中國電商達到頂點?

As Chinese ecommerce growth has exploded, averaging 43 per cent a year over the past five years, online sales now account for about a fifth of total retail.

隨著中國電子商務出現(xiàn)爆炸性增長、過去5年平均每年增長43%，如今線上銷售額已占到社會零售總額的大約五分之一。

Alibaba and its smaller rival JD.com take about 80 per cent of consumer ecommerce sales but both have been pouring billions into physical retail — most recently Alibaba’s $2.9bn investment in hypermarket operator Sun Art.

阿里巴巴和比它規(guī)模小的對手京東已占到消費品電商銷售額的大約80%，但兩者都已開始向?qū)嶓w零售領(lǐng)域投入巨資——最近，阿里巴巴向大型超市運營商高鑫零售(Sun Art)投資了29億美元。

Ecommerce growth slowed to 26 per cent last year, prompting a debate about whether internet retail saturation is near. “It’s reached an inflection point where online sales as a total of total retail sales is stabilising,” says Cathy Chao of Fitch.

去年，電商增速放緩至26%，引發(fā)了一場關(guān)于線上零售飽和是否就要到來的辯論。“目前已到達一個拐點，線上銷售額占社會零售總額的比例正趨于穩(wěn)定，”惠譽的Cathy Chao說。

Analysts say categories such as consumer electronics may have little room to increase their online sales share, but ecommerce penetration for others such as fresh groceries and fast moving consumer goods remains low, at 3 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively.

分析師表示，消費電子產(chǎn)品等品類或許幾乎沒有什么提升線上銷售占比的空間了，但生鮮食品和快速消費品等其他品類的電商滲透率仍很低，分別為3%和7%。

According to Mintel, the average online retail spending of China’s online shoppers will peak this year at 46 per cent of average overall shopper spending. “Consumers are increasingly buying experiences and services online, rather than products,” it notes.

Mintel表示，今年中國線上購物者的平均線上零售消費將達到最高峰，為其平均總體消費額的46%。該公司指出，“消費者越來越多地在網(wǎng)上購買體驗和服務，而不是產(chǎn)品。”

That means ecommerce growth will come from increasing the number of China’s 750m internet users buying online from its current 60 per cent level. “You’ve still got a lot of headroom there,” says Alex Shutter at consultancy Oliver Wyman.

這意味著，電商增長將來自于讓中國7.5億網(wǎng)民中網(wǎng)購者的比例從當前的60%繼續(xù)提高。“你們前面仍有很大的上升空間，”奧緯咨詢的亞歷克斯•沙特爾說。