11月中國出口總值增長12.3%

Chinese exports rose at more than twice the rate expected in November, boosting the country’s trade surplus.

11月，中國的出口總值增速是預期的2倍多，這增加了中國的貿(mào)易順差。

The dollar value of outbound shipments from China rose 12.3 per cent year on year in November, lifting from a revised pace of 6.8 per cent in October, and smashing a median forecast of 5 per cent from economists polled by Reuters.

以美元值計，11月中國的出口總值同比上升12.3%，比10月的出口總值同比增速6.9%有所提高，高于路透社(Reuters)調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟學家給出的預測中值5%。

Import growth lifted year-on-year to a pace of 17.7 per cent for the period, up from 17.2 per cent a month earlier and beating an expected rate of 11.3 per cent.

以美元值計，11月中國的進口總值同比上升17.7%，比10月的17.2%高，高于11.3%的預期增速。

Those trade flows, published by the General Administration of Customs, resulted in China’s trade surplus rising than $2bn to $40.2bn, surpassing October’s revised figure of $38.2bn and well ahead of September’s revised six-month low of $28.6b. November’s trade surplus was also ahead of the $35bn forecast by economists.

根據(jù)中國海關(guān)總署發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，這些進出口貿(mào)易使11月中國的貿(mào)易順差比10月的貿(mào)易順差382億美元提高20億美元，至402億美元，遠超9月份的6個月低點286億美元。11月的貿(mào)易差額也超過了經(jīng)濟學家預期的350億美元。

Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, commented:

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國經(jīng)濟學家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)評論道：“結(jié)果是，上個月中國的貿(mào)易看起來驚人強勁。在全球需求強勁的背景下，我們預期未來數(shù)月出口還將繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)良好。”

The upshot is that Chinese trade looks to have been surprisingly strong last month. We expect exports to continue to perform well in the coming months on the back of strong global demand.

“然而，考慮到政策緊縮的延遲影響，以及房地產(chǎn)市場降溫將在未來數(shù)個季度壓制中國對大宗商品的需求，我們懷疑出口的增長勢頭是否還能維持下去。”

However, we are sceptical that the strength of imports can be sustained given that the delayed impact of policy tightening and a cooling property market are set to weigh on Chinese demand for commodities in coming quarters.

野村證券(Nomura)的分析師表示：“我們預期這一輪出口增長的反彈不會維持很長時間，未來數(shù)月增長勢頭將恢復溫和，原因是人民幣的升值可能弱化中國的出口競爭力，且即使習主席和特朗普總統(tǒng)近期在北京會面，發(fā)生貿(mào)易摩擦的潛在風險并未顯著減輕。”

Nomura analysts said: 譯者/徐行