禽流感在亞洲持續(xù)擴散，引發(fā)全球衛(wèi)生機構(gòu)關(guān)切

While trying to avoid alarmism, global health agencies are steadily ratcheting up concern about bird flu in Asia. Bird viruses that can infect humans — particularly those of the H7N9 strain — continue to spread to new cities there.

在避免危言聳聽的同時，全球衛(wèi)生機構(gòu)對亞洲禽流感的關(guān)切正在逐步加劇。能感染人類的禽流感病毒——尤其是H7N9——繼續(xù)擴散至該地區(qū)的更多城市。

Since October 2016, China has seen a “fifth wave” of H7N9 infections. Nearly 1,600 people have tested positive, almost 40 percent of whom have died.

自2016年10月以來，中國正出現(xiàn)“第五輪”H7N9感染。近1600人檢測呈陽性，其中近40%的人死亡。

Most had been exposed to live poultry, but a small number of clusters suggest that the virus could be passing from person to person.

這當(dāng)中的大部分人曾經(jīng)接觸過活禽。但少數(shù)集聚的情況表明，這種病毒可能出現(xiàn)了人際傳播。

In September, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention summarized some disturbing developments. The H7N9 virus had become lethal to birds, which made it potentially more dangerous to people but also easier to spot.

9月，美國疾病控制和預(yù)防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)總結(jié)了一些令人不安的事態(tài)發(fā)展。H7N9病毒對鳥類來說是致命的，這使得它可能對人類更為危險，但也更容易被發(fā)現(xiàn)。

And the virus had split into two lineages — called Yangtze and Pearl, after the river deltas in which each was spreading — complicating efforts to make vaccines.

該病毒已經(jīng)演化出兩個分支，分別被稱為長江和珠江，以它傳播的兩個三角洲命名。這給疫苗的制造增加了困難。

In October, the World Health Organization put out an update citing new cases of H7N9 infection as cold weather set in and noting that poultry farmers were vaccinating flocks against both this virus and other strains.

10月，世界衛(wèi)生組織(World Health Organization)發(fā)布了最新報告，稱隨著天氣轉(zhuǎn)冷，出現(xiàn)了新的H7N9病毒感染病例，并指出，家禽飼養(yǎng)者正在給家禽注射這兩種毒株以及其他毒株的疫苗。

At about the same time, a well-known virologist at the University of Wisconsin — Madison showed that a Chinese H7N9 strain could both kill ferrets and be transmitted between them.

與此同時，威斯康星大學(xué)麥迪遜分校(University of Wisconsin-Madison)的一位著名病毒學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國的H7N9毒株不僅能導(dǎo)致雪貂死亡，還可以在它們之間傳播。

Because ferrets suffer roughly the same effects from flu that humans do, the development was “not good for public health,” said the virologist, Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka.

病毒學(xué)家河岡義裕博士(Yoshihiro Kawaoka)表示，禽流感對雪貂的影響與對人類的影響大致相同，它的發(fā)展“不利于公共衛(wèi)生”。

Many microbiologists consider influenza to be the virus most likely to start a pandemic that kills millions, as the 1918 Spanish flu did. But the flu is notoriously unpredictable. Public health experts have become wary about raising alarms over new strains because the grave predictions made in 2005 and 2009 turned out to be overblown.

很多微生物學(xué)家認為，流感病毒是最可能引發(fā)數(shù)百萬人死亡的流行病病毒，就像1918年的西班牙流感那樣。不過，這種流感是出了名的不可預(yù)測。公共衛(wèi)生專家在謹慎提高人們對新病毒類型的警覺，因為結(jié)果證明，2005年和2009的實際情況沒有預(yù)測得那么嚴重。

In 2005, it was feared that the H5N1 avian flu, which killed or forced the culling of millions of chickens and ducks, would mutate and spread widely among humans.

2005年，人們擔(dān)心H5N1型禽流感病毒會變異，并在人類中廣泛傳播。該病毒導(dǎo)致數(shù)百萬雞鴨死亡或被撲殺。

It still circulates, primarily in Egypt and Indonesia, but so far has not become a human epidemic. As of last month, only 860 people in 16 countries had tested positive for the infection. Still, more than half of them died.

H5N1仍在傳播，主要是在埃及和印度尼西亞，但迄今為止，還沒有變成人類流行病。截至上個月，16個國家中只有860人檢測出感染陽性，但感染者中仍有半數(shù)以上的人死亡。

And in 2009, a new H1N1 flu virus containing genes from both American and Eurasian pigs emerged in Mexico, prompting scary “swine flu” headlines and the declaration of a health emergency.

2009年，一種帶有美國和歐亞的豬基因的新型H1N1流感病毒在墨西哥出現(xiàn)，導(dǎo)致媒體開始大肆報道可怕的“豬流感”，并宣布進入衛(wèi)生緊急狀態(tài)。

That virus has now become one of the seasonal flu strains circling the world. It has infected millions but has killed relatively few people.

這種病毒現(xiàn)在已成為在世界各地傳播的季節(jié)性流感病毒之一。已有數(shù)百萬人感染該病毒，但死亡人數(shù)相對較少。

The 2017-2018 flu season in the United States does not yet seem unusually threatening. But Australia, where winter recently ended, just suffered one of its deadliest outbreaks in a decade, and the H3N2 and B Yamagata strains that dominated there are now the most common ones in the United States.

美國的2017年至2018年流感季似乎還不太危險。但是，冬季剛結(jié)束的澳大利亞剛剛經(jīng)歷了十年來最致命的一次疫情，該地區(qū)最常見的H3N2和B山形菌株現(xiàn)在是美國最常見的菌株。

Flu hospitalizations in this country rarely shoot up before mid-December, and Americans are far more likely than Australians to get flu shots.

在12月中旬之前，美國的流感住院人數(shù)很少激增，而且美國人注射流感疫苗的可能性比澳大利亞人大很多。