全球減排計(jì)劃再添變數(shù)

New figures showing global carbon emissions in 2017 are likely to rise for the first time in four years make a gloomy backdrop to the UN climate talks in Bonn this week that were already looking difficult.

一些新數(shù)據(jù)表明2017年全球碳排放有可能在4年來(lái)首次上升，這給本周在波恩舉行的本就看起來(lái)困難重重的聯(lián)合國(guó)(UN)氣候談判平添了一層黯淡的氣氛。

Climate-warming emissions were almost flat in the years between 2014 and 2016, despite a growing global economy. This had bolstered hopes that the world had finally found a way to “decouple” economic growth from carbon pollution, a goal that had seemed unimaginable only a few years earlier.

2014到2016年間，盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)保持增長(zhǎng)，導(dǎo)致氣候變暖的碳排放卻基本持平。這曾經(jīng)帶來(lái)一種希望，即世界終于找到了將經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和碳污染“脫鉤”的辦法，而這個(gè)目標(biāo)在幾年前似乎還是不可想象的。

Many scientists say emissions should peak by about 2020 to have any hope of preventing dangerous levels of warming this century.

很多科學(xué)家表示，碳排放應(yīng)在2020年左右達(dá)到峰值，才有希望在本世紀(jì)防止氣候變暖達(dá)到危險(xiǎn)的水平。

But the data published on Monday by an international consortium of climate researchers suggest levels could rise by 2 per cent this year, driven by a rebound in fossil fuel burning in China, the world’s emissions superpower.

但一個(gè)由氣候研究人員組成的國(guó)際團(tuán)體在周一發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)表明，今年全球碳排放量可能會(huì)上升2%，原因是碳排放超級(jí)大國(guó)中國(guó)的化石燃料消耗量出現(xiàn)反彈。

It is too early to know if this will prove to be a one-off spike in a trend of decoupling, or the start of a fresh pattern of growth. Either way, it casts an unsettling light on the Paris climate accord that virtually every country in the world adopted in December 2015.

這是脫鉤大趨勢(shì)下的一次性上升，還是碳排放的一種新增長(zhǎng)模式的開(kāi)端?要判斷這一點(diǎn)還為時(shí)過(guò)早。無(wú)論如何，這給2015年12月經(jīng)幾乎所有國(guó)家通過(guò)的巴黎氣候協(xié)定帶來(lái)了令人不安的訊息。

That agreement is supposed to hold global temperature rises “well below” 2C from the pre-industrial era, and preferably no more than 1.5C. To achieve this, countries have each published an initial round of plans to cut or slow their emissions. The trouble is, we already know this first round of pledges is nowhere near enough to meet the Paris accord’s goals.

巴黎氣候協(xié)定尋求使全球氣溫相比工業(yè)化時(shí)代之前的升幅“遠(yuǎn)低于”2℃，最好在1.5℃之內(nèi)。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)，各國(guó)都提出了削減或放緩排放的首輪方案。問(wèn)題是，我們已經(jīng)知道首輪減排承諾遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不足以實(shí)現(xiàn)巴黎協(xié)定的目標(biāo)。

The plans currently add up to only a third of the reductions needed to avoid 2C of global warming at least cost, according to a UN Environment Programme report last month. That leaves what the UN calls an “alarmingly high” emissions gap. This will be even harder to close if we are on the brink of a new period of carbon growth, considering the state of global climate politics.

上月聯(lián)合國(guó)環(huán)境規(guī)劃署(UN Environment Programme)的一份報(bào)告表明，目前首輪方案的減排量總和也只能達(dá)到以最低成本避免全球升溫2℃所需的減排量的三分之一。這就形成了聯(lián)合國(guó)所說(shuō)的“大得驚人”的排放量差距。考慮到全球氣候政治的局面，如果我們即將進(jìn)入一輪碳排放增長(zhǎng)的新時(shí)期，將使我們更難以縮小這一差距。

Negotiators in Bonn are supposed to be crafting a set of rules, due to be finalised next year, ensuring countries ramp up future action enough to meet the goals of the Paris agreement.

波恩氣候大會(huì)的談判代表們需要編寫(xiě)一套規(guī)則，并在明年敲定下來(lái)，以確保各國(guó)在未來(lái)采取足夠多的措施來(lái)達(dá)到巴黎協(xié)定的目標(biāo)。

That effort has been complicated by the decision of US president Donald Trump to withdraw from the accord. The US is the second-largest emitter after China and although Washington cannot legally pull out of the pact until 2020, Mr Trump has made it clear he has little interest in the Paris pledge made by his predecessor, Barack Obama, to cut US emissions by at least 26 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025.

美國(guó)總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)退出巴黎氣候協(xié)定的決定讓這一努力變得更加復(fù)雜。美國(guó)是繼中國(guó)之后的第二大排放國(guó)，盡管美國(guó)要到2020年以后才能合法地退出巴黎協(xié)定，特朗普已經(jīng)明確表示，他對(duì)前任巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)做出的承諾——到2025年將美國(guó)排放量相比2005年水平至少減少26%——毫無(wú)興趣。

Numerous US states and business leaders say they are still committed to the Paris agreement, despite Mr Trump.

盡管特朗普如此表態(tài)，美國(guó)許多州和商界領(lǐng)袖表示依然會(huì)致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)巴黎協(xié)定。

But that still leaves a large question mark about China. Beijing has leapt to fill the political gap left by the US in global climate leadership. And there had been signs that China was on course to meet its Paris plan to halt emissions growth by 2030.

但關(guān)于中國(guó)還有一個(gè)大大的問(wèn)號(hào)。美國(guó)退出在全球應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化方面的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)角色，而中國(guó)已經(jīng)迅速出面力求填補(bǔ)這個(gè)政治空白。而且此前也有跡象表明，中國(guó)正處在有望實(shí)現(xiàn)其巴黎協(xié)定減排計(jì)劃(2030年停止增加排放)的軌道上。

That hope has been dented by the new figures. It is hard to see the Paris accord succeeding unless they prove to be a temporary blip.

新數(shù)據(jù)卻打擊了這一希望。除非這些數(shù)據(jù)被證明只是暫時(shí)性現(xiàn)象，否則我們將很難看到巴黎氣候協(xié)定取得成功。