可再生能源的顛覆威力

After years of hope and promise, renewables are beginning to establish a presence in the energy market free of the requirement for heavy subsidies or other policy interventions. The International Energy Agency’s latest review of the renewables sector records the remarkable progress that is being made, particularly in terms of falling costs.

在多年的希望和承諾之后，可再生能源開始在能源市場(chǎng)占得一席之地，而無需大量補(bǔ)貼或者其他政策干預(yù)。國(guó)際能源署(IEA)對(duì)可再生能源行業(yè)的最新研究報(bào)告，展示了這個(gè)行業(yè)正在取得的顯著進(jìn)展，尤其是就不斷降低成本而言。

Renewables cannot yet transform the entire energy business but in electricity they are becoming deeply disruptive to the established competitive order.

可再生能源還無法轉(zhuǎn)變整個(gè)能源行業(yè)，但在電力領(lǐng)域，它們開始對(duì)現(xiàn)有的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)秩序產(chǎn)生深刻的顛覆性影響。

The IEA’s paper describes a year of remarkable progress and presents a forecast of continued growth over the next five years. The progress centres on solar power, where capacity grew by 50 per cent last year and is set to add another 660 GW by 2022. Solar and wind are beginning materially to supplement the supply from hydro.

國(guó)際能源署的報(bào)告描述了可再生能源在一年來取得的顯著進(jìn)展，并預(yù)測(cè)接下來5年可再生能源還將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。進(jìn)展集中在太陽能發(fā)電方面，去年太陽能發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量增長(zhǎng)50%，到2022年還將新增660吉瓦(GW)。太陽能和風(fēng)能發(fā)電正開始起到實(shí)質(zhì)性地補(bǔ)充水力發(fā)電的作用。

Two-thirds of additional global power generating capacity in 2016 came from renewables. By 2022, continued growth should give them 30 per cent of the global power market with a total growth in capacity of over 920 GW. China is the market leader, rapidly adding a strong manufacturing capability to its technical strength to create an industry that is producing a dramatic reduction in costs.

2016年，全球新增的發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量有三分之二來自可再生能源。到2022年，可再生能源的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)將使其拿下全球電力市場(chǎng)的30%，裝機(jī)容量增加總量達(dá)到逾920吉瓦。作為市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的中國(guó)，迅速將強(qiáng)大的制造能力與技術(shù)實(shí)力結(jié)合起來，打造出一個(gè)大幅壓低成本的產(chǎn)業(yè)。

The IEA’s forecast comes in sharp contrast to its previous caution on renewables. Five years ago, it produced a report suggesting we were entering the golden age of gas — encouraging some to invest in a range of very big projects, many relying on the expensive process of liquefaction. The projections of gas consumption made then were significantly overoptimistic. Actual growth has been modest, and the surge in supply has forced prices down.

國(guó)際能源署的這一預(yù)測(cè)與該機(jī)構(gòu)以往對(duì)可再生能源的謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度形成了鮮明對(duì)比。5年前，該機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)表報(bào)告稱，我們正踏入天然氣的黃金時(shí)代——這鼓勵(lì)一些企業(yè)投資于一系列龐大的項(xiàng)目，其中許多項(xiàng)目依賴成本高昂的液化過程。當(dāng)時(shí)對(duì)天然氣消費(fèi)量的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)顯然過度樂觀。實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)是有限的，而供應(yīng)量激增壓低了價(jià)格。

Is this projection of renewables growth more credible, and if so what does it mean for the global energy mix, for competing sources of supply such as gas, coal and nuclear and for climate change?

此次對(duì)可再生能源的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)是否更為可信?假設(shè)如果真如此，這對(duì)全球能源結(jié)構(gòu)，對(duì)天然氣、煤炭和核能等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)供能來源，以及對(duì)氣候變化都意味著什么?

To the first of those questions the answer is yes. Both solar and wind have made in gains in the last two years that transform their prospects.

對(duì)第一個(gè)問題的回答是肯定的。過去兩年，太陽能和風(fēng)能都取得了足以轉(zhuǎn)變自身前景的進(jìn)步。

China accounted for 40 per cent of the global growth in renewables, surging ahead of the targets set in its 13th five-year plan for the period to 2020. Thanks to technology and mass production, costs have fallen dramatically, particularly in solar. As a result, China accounts for half of global solar consumption and some 60 per cent of global solar cell-manufacturing capacity.

中國(guó)貢獻(xiàn)了40%的全球可再生能源增長(zhǎng)，大幅超過其在第十三個(gè)五年規(guī)劃(2016-2020年)中設(shè)定的目標(biāo)。得益于技術(shù)和規(guī)模生產(chǎn)，成本大幅降低，尤其是太陽能。其結(jié)果是，中國(guó)占全球太陽能消費(fèi)量的一半，占全球太陽能面板制造產(chǎn)能的60%左右。

Wind, which is perhaps slightly neglected in the IEA’s report, has also made great gains in both productivity and costs. The latest wind auctions found prices as low as £57.50 for the new Hornsea 2 project in the North Sea. That cost does not include the back-up necessary for when the wind fails to blow but even if that were included the net result would be a price of power well below the £ 92.50 per MW/hr cost of new nuclear. Together, wind and solar are setting a new competitive benchmark.

在國(guó)際能源署的報(bào)告中有點(diǎn)被忽視的風(fēng)能，近年也在生產(chǎn)率和成本上取得了長(zhǎng)足的進(jìn)步。在最近的風(fēng)能拍賣上，北海新風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目Hornsea 2的電價(jià)低至每兆瓦小時(shí)(MW/hr) 57.5英鎊。這一成本不包括在無風(fēng)的情況下需要的備用發(fā)電能力的成本，但就算計(jì)入這一項(xiàng)，最終的成本也遠(yuǎn)低于新建核電站每兆瓦小時(shí)92.5英鎊的電價(jià)。風(fēng)能和太陽能共同設(shè)定了新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)基準(zhǔn)。

Hydro is also neglected but is just as important given the strong base and growth potential, especially in areas such as south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

水電也被這份報(bào)告忽略了，但考慮到其強(qiáng)大的基數(shù)和增長(zhǎng)潛力，尤其是在南亞和撒哈拉以南非洲地區(qū)，這類可再生能源也同樣重要。

The IEA’s projection that renewables capacity can grow worldwide by more than 40 per cent over the next five years looks reasonable and could be even higher if policy makers and regulators can resolve the challenge of growing supplies from dispersed sources, including businesses producing their own power and selling any surplus into the grid. The old, dying model uses just a few central sources.

國(guó)際能源署預(yù)測(cè)，全球范圍內(nèi)可再生能源的發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量將在未來5年增長(zhǎng)逾40%，這看起來是合理的，如果政策制定者和監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)能夠解決發(fā)展分散供電來源的挑戰(zhàn)，包括企業(yè)自行發(fā)電、并將剩余電力出售給電網(wǎng)，這個(gè)數(shù)字還可能更高。正在被淘汰的舊模式使用為數(shù)不多的中央供電來源。

The growth of renewables will, of course, have some uncomfortable consequences for existing suppliers. Electricity demand is growing but additional low-cost sources will displace competing fuels. Coal is the most vulnerable, especially where emissions are regulated. But gas will also lose market share and in some places will be relegated to a balancing fuel, topping up demand when needed. Even that role will be threatened if storage technology can solve the problems of intermittency.

當(dāng)然，可再生能源的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)對(duì)現(xiàn)有供應(yīng)商帶來一些不太愉快的影響。電力需求正在增長(zhǎng)，但新增的低成本來源將取代與之競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的燃料。煤炭是最容易受到影響的，尤其是在排放受到監(jiān)管的地方。但天然氣也將失去市場(chǎng)份額，而且在一些地方將會(huì)降級(jí)為用來保持發(fā)電量平衡的燃料，在有需要的時(shí)候提供備份發(fā)電能力。但如果儲(chǔ)能技術(shù)可以解決可再生能源發(fā)電間斷性的問題，連天然氣的這種角色都會(huì)受到威脅。

The advances in renewables change the market structure and open up prospects in many countries. For instance, distributed off-grid solar power generation in areas such as India and sub-Saharan Africa could lift millions of people out of subsistence poverty. The IEA’s estimate is that up to 70m more people could be provided with basic electricity services in their homes over the next five years.

可再生能源的進(jìn)步改變了市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)，在許多國(guó)家打開了新的前景。比如，印度和撒哈拉以南非洲等地區(qū)的分布式脫網(wǎng)太陽能發(fā)電，能夠讓數(shù)百萬人脫離生存貧困。國(guó)際能源署估計(jì)，接下來5年，將有7000多萬人首次在家里用上基本電力服務(wù)。

So, in terms of the electricity market we are at a moment of significant transition. The economics of every other potential source of supply will be measured against the falling costs of wind and solar.

因此，就電力市場(chǎng)而言，我們處在一個(gè)重大轉(zhuǎn)變時(shí)刻。其他每一種潛在供電來源的經(jīng)濟(jì)性，都將與風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電不斷下降的成本作比較。

As a business proposition, renewables look set to advance and, given China’s dominance, radical restructuring of the rest of the sector looks essential to create genuine global competition. In Europe and the US there is too much fragmentation and too few economies of scale. Supply chains are not well integrated and there is too little long-term capital to support the possible growth.

作為一個(gè)商業(yè)提議，可再生能源看起來還將繼續(xù)發(fā)展，同時(shí)考慮到中國(guó)的主導(dǎo)地位，要建立真正的全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，對(duì)該行業(yè)的其他部分進(jìn)行大規(guī)模重構(gòu)看起來必不可少。在歐洲和美國(guó)，可再生能源的碎片化過于嚴(yán)重，規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)嚴(yán)重不足。供應(yīng)鏈也沒有得到很好的整合，支持潛在增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)期資本太少。

But these are all problems of success and can be sorted out. Renewables are no longer an afterthought in the energy business. They are a growing, competitive sector in their own right, and a source of disruption and risk to the incumbents.

但這些都是與成功相伴的問題，是能夠解決的。可再生能源不再是能源業(yè)務(wù)中一件被人事后想起來的事情，而是一個(gè)處于成長(zhǎng)期、有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的行業(yè)，給現(xiàn)有能源供應(yīng)商帶來了顛覆和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

It is important, however, to maintain a sense of proportion. Wind and solar are focused almost entirely on the production of electricity, which represents around 40 per cent of final energy demand worldwide and accounts for a slightly higher proportion of total emissions.

然而，保持一種比例觀念很重要。風(fēng)能和太陽能幾乎完全被用于發(fā)電，而電力占全球最終能源需求的40%左右，目前在總排放量中所占比例略高一些。

The main areas of energy consumption — heat, transport beyond light vehicles and industrial use including the production of steel, cement and petrochemicals — are as yet largely unaffected. In some of those areas electrification is possible, if expensive. In others any change in the energy supply mix seems a long way off. What is happening in renewables is a substantial advance, but it is not the end of the story.

能源消費(fèi)的主要領(lǐng)域——供暖;輕型車輛以外的交通工具;以及生產(chǎn)鋼鐵、水泥和石化產(chǎn)品等工業(yè)用途——還基本不受影響。在上述這些領(lǐng)域中，有一些在理論上可以電氣化(盡管可能成本高昂)。在其他一些領(lǐng)域，能源供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)的任何改變都是遙遠(yuǎn)未來的事情?？稍偕茉串?dāng)前取得了重大進(jìn)步，但這還不是故事的結(jié)束。