印度經(jīng)濟(jì)如何重新提速？

The shine has come off India’s growth. Most countries would crave a growth rate as high as 5.7 per cent, but this is a setback for a country that recently boasted of growth rates higher than China’s. The slowdown exposes underlying fragilities that no triumphalist talk could conceal. What lessons the government takes from this, and how it responds, will determine the contours of the economy and its growth prospects for a long time.

印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長失去了光輝。像5.7%這樣高的增長率，多數(shù)國家都會求之不得，但對一個最近夸口經(jīng)濟(jì)增速超過中國的國家來說，這是一種倒退。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，暴露出任何必勝言論都無法掩蓋的深層脆弱。印度政府能從中汲取何種教訓(xùn)以及它會如何回應(yīng)，將決定該國的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況和長期增長前景。

The call for reforms has not gone unheeded by the government of Narendra Modi. A corporate bankruptcy law was put into effect last year. So was an inflation-targeting framework, giving the central bank a more focused mandate that makes low, stable inflation one of its principal objectives.

納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)政府沒有忽視改革的呼聲。去年企業(yè)破產(chǎn)法生效。同時生效的還有通脹目標(biāo)制，這讓印度央行有了更明確的使命，即把保持較低且穩(wěn)定的通脹作為其主要目標(biāo)之一。

Last November, the government unexpectedly withdrew 500 and 1,000-rupee notes. This year, it implemented the goods and services tax, a regime that gets rid of a patchwork of state excise levies.

去年11月，印度政府出人意料地廢除了500和1000盧比面值的紙幣。今年又實行了商品和服務(wù)稅，結(jié)束了各邦自行征收消費(fèi)稅的混亂局面。

These reforms have fallen prey to a mix of weak design, poor implementation and inadequate follow-through. The GST ended up as a complicated hodgepodge that suffered from uneven implementation.

這些改革由于設(shè)計糟糕、執(zhí)行不力和后續(xù)舉措不到位而陷入困境。商品服務(wù)稅最終成了復(fù)雜的大雜燴，各地實施力度不一。

Then consider the demonetisation, a well-intended strike against corruption. The chaos it unleashed in a cash-driven economy took too long to quell. Moreover, with no follow-through to change the incentives that foster corruption — especially the intrusive role of the state in most aspects of the economy — the dividends have been paltry.

至于廢鈔運(yùn)動，這本是一個初衷良好的打擊腐敗的舉措。然而，它在一個現(xiàn)金驅(qū)動的經(jīng)濟(jì)中引發(fā)的混亂用了很長時間才平息下去。此外，由于沒有改變腐敗誘因——尤其是政府在大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域中管得過多的狀況——的后續(xù)舉措，廢鈔運(yùn)動帶來的紅利是微不足道的。

Nevertheless, Mr Modi still has enormous support. His demonetisation gambit got a remarkable political vindication in March when his party swept to victory in polls in Uttar Pradesh. With a majority in parliament and an economy growing rapidly, this outcome gave the prime minister more wind in his sails.

然而，莫迪仍頗受支持。今年3月，他的政黨在北方邦(Uttar Pradesh)的地方選舉中大獲全勝，這顯然是對其廢鈔政策的政治背書。隨著其政黨在議會占據(jù)多數(shù)席位以及經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長，這種結(jié)果讓莫迪更是一帆風(fēng)順。

What has he done with all this momentum? Little of consequence. The economic reform agenda seems to have given way to the social agenda promoted by extremist and nationalistic elements of his political party.

他利用這種勢頭做了什么?沒什么成果。經(jīng)濟(jì)改革議程似乎讓位于其政黨內(nèi)極端主義者和民族主義派系推動的社會議程。

Now, with growth flailing, there is a temptation to use looser fiscal policy to push up economic activity. The government is also subtly increasing pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates.

現(xiàn)在，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，印度政府會忍不住使用更為寬松的財政政策來推動經(jīng)濟(jì)活動。印度政府還隱晦地對央行施壓，要求后者降息。

These measures can help growth. But even the short-term boost will depend on whether they are undertaken in isolation or in tandem with broader reforms. And they are not without risks.

這些措施可能會有助于推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。但即便只是短期提振，也要看它們是孤立的措施還是伴隨著更廣泛的改革。而且實施這些舉措并非沒有風(fēng)險。

Inflation had come under control sooner than expected but inflationary pressures are once again building up. Getting off the announced public deficit and debt reduction paths could shake investors’ confidence, pushing up interest rates and increasing the cost of financing the government’s debt.

通脹比預(yù)期更快地得到了控制，但通脹壓力再次積聚。宣布公共赤字及債務(wù)削減途徑后又偏離原定軌道，這可能動搖投資者的信心，推高利率，增加政府債務(wù)融資成本。

Such stimulus measures will do little for growth beyond a year or two unless investment picks up. This is the most fragile aspect of India’s economic surge in the past two years — private investment growth has been practically nonexistent. Thus, the real question for policymakers is not about how they can boost growth temporarily but how to create the environment to elicit private investment. Without that, durable long-term expansion will remain a mirage.

除非投資增加，否則此類刺激措施將無助于一兩年以上的增長。這是過去兩年印度經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛增長勢頭中最為脆弱的部分——私人投資增長幾乎不存在。因此，政策制定者面臨的真正問題不是他們?nèi)绾尾拍軙簳r推動增長，而是如何創(chuàng)造吸引私人投資的環(huán)境。沒有這種環(huán)境，長期持續(xù)的增長仍將是海市蜃樓。

In addition to a stable macroeconomic environment, including low inflation and low budget deficits, substantive policy reforms are needed to give businesses confidence that India has economic prospects that would justify higher levels of investment.

除了創(chuàng)造穩(wěn)定的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境，包括保持低通脹和低預(yù)算赤字，印度還需要推行實質(zhì)性的政策改革，以便讓企業(yè)相信，印度擁有值得他們加大投資的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景。

Some good could come of the growth slowdown if it tamps down the government’s triumphalist chatter and forces it to fix the banking system, labour market and infrastructure, along with freeing the economy from state control. This is essential if India is to have a shot at achieving its potential. A panicky response emphasising short-term stimulus will hurt India’s economy.

如果說經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩能讓印度政府的必勝主義者不再喋喋不休，并迫使政府改革銀行業(yè)體系、勞動力市場和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，同時讓政府放松對經(jīng)濟(jì)的控制，那么這種放緩也是有好處的。這種改革對印度充分發(fā)揮其潛力至關(guān)重要。對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩倉促地做出回應(yīng)、把重點(diǎn)放在短期刺激上，將會損害印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)。

The writer is a professor at Cornell University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution

本文作者是康奈爾大學(xué)(Cornell University)教授和布魯金斯學(xué)會(Brookings Institution)高級研究員