中國(guó)投行不再順風(fēng)順?biāo)?/h1>

所屬教程:雙語(yǔ)閱讀

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2017年12月05日

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Booming debt markets and extravagant trading fees made China’s investment banks the envy of many global rivals for several years.

過(guò)去幾年里，中國(guó)紅火的債券市場(chǎng)和高昂的交易費(fèi)用讓中資投行成為許多全球同行的羨慕對(duì)象。

Not any more.

現(xiàn)在，他們不再羨慕了。

Revenues from China’s onshore bond market this year are half their 2016 level, partly because of policies to discourage a dangerous debt build-up.

今年以來(lái)中國(guó)在岸債券市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生的收入僅為去年全年收入水平的一半，部分原因在于政府阻止危險(xiǎn)的債務(wù)積累的政策。

As a consequence, China banks are losing ground on the global stage, according to an FT analysis covering more than 60 institutions from leaders Bank of China, Citic Securities and Haitong to smaller ones such as Dragon Securities and Hengtai Securities.

因此，根據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》的一項(xiàng)分析，中國(guó)投行在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上的分量在下降。這項(xiàng)分析涵蓋60多家機(jī)構(gòu)，既有中國(guó)銀行(BoC)、中信證券(Citic Securities)和海通證券(Haitong)這樣的市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，也有華龍證券(China Dragon Securities)和恒泰證券(Hengtai Securities)等規(guī)模較小的券商。

After more than trebling from 2013 to 2016, Chinese banks’ share of the world’s investment banking spending fell sharply in the first nine months of 2017, fee data from Dealogic show.

Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2013年至2016年期間，中國(guó)投行占全球投行業(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)用的份額擴(kuò)大了兩倍多，在2017年前三季度則出現(xiàn)大幅下滑。

At the same time, the brokerage fees powering Chinese banks’ sales and trading business — the industry’s largest revenue source — have plummeted after deregulation led to brutal competition.

同時(shí)，由于政府放松監(jiān)管引發(fā)了殘酷競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和費(fèi)用下降，支撐中國(guó)投行銷(xiāo)售與交易業(yè)務(wù)的經(jīng)紀(jì)費(fèi)用——該行業(yè)最大的收入來(lái)源——已直線下降。

Trading revenues for 33 mainland-listed investment banks were 27 per cent lower in the first half of 2017 than a year earlier, according to data from Wind Information compiled from exchange filings.

萬(wàn)得資訊(Wind Information)根據(jù)交易所文件匯編的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2017年上半年，33家在中國(guó)內(nèi)地上市的投行的交易收入同比下降了27%。

It is a scenario that would prompt soul-searching and restructuring plans at western banks, where global prestige is highly valued and sharp falls in business areas prompt alarm among shareholders and management alike.

如果是西方投行遇到這種情況，就會(huì)趕緊進(jìn)行反思并制定重組計(jì)劃，因?yàn)樗鼈兎浅Ｖ匾曌约旱膰?guó)際名聲，而且業(yè)務(wù)方面的急劇下滑也會(huì)引起股東和管理層的不安。

But China bank executives tend to place more emphasis on how they are performing in local markets than they do on global league tables. By that measure, they are doing better.

但是，中國(guó)投行高管通常更重視自己在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上的表現(xiàn)，不太關(guān)注自己在全球排行榜上的位置。就國(guó)內(nèi)來(lái)說(shuō)，它們的表現(xiàn)比較好。

In China’s onshore bond market, they take 95 per cent of the fees, up a touch from previous years, and in China onshore equity capital markets, China banks’ share rose slightly in the first nine months of 2017.

在中國(guó)在岸債券市場(chǎng)上，中國(guó)投行占據(jù)了費(fèi)用收入的95%，略高于前幾年;在岸股權(quán)資本市場(chǎng)上，2017年前三季度中國(guó)投行的市場(chǎng)份額略微升高。

Chinese investment banks “don’t care about their league tables globally”, says a banker based in Hong Kong who has held roles in two of China’s big investment banks. “They will not play outside the region in any significant way.”

中國(guó)投行“不關(guān)心它們?cè)谌蚍秶呐琶闆r”，一位曾在兩家中國(guó)大型投行擔(dān)任高級(jí)職務(wù)、如今常駐香港的銀行家表示，“它們不會(huì)以很大精力在地區(qū)以外發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)。”

Chinese bankers are also more sanguine about short-term revenue drops, and expect that the onshore bond market will rebound to its more lucrative past, when yields were lower and companies had more incentive to issue debt.

對(duì)于短期的收入下降，中國(guó)銀行家也比較樂(lè)觀，并預(yù)計(jì)在岸債市將發(fā)生反彈，回到過(guò)去利潤(rùn)更豐厚的狀態(tài)。過(guò)去收益率較低，各公司有更大的發(fā)債動(dòng)力。

“I believe bond yields in the onshore market have probably peaked,” writes Chen Long, analyst at Gavekal-Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research group. “The financial tightening that drove yields up in the first half is also probably ending as the [macroeconomic] data become weaker.”

“我認(rèn)為，在岸債券市場(chǎng)的收益率很可能已見(jiàn)頂，” 北京研究集團(tuán)龍洲經(jīng)訊(GaveKal Dragonomics)的分析師陳龍寫(xiě)道，“隨著(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì))數(shù)據(jù)變得更弱，在上半年推高收益率的金融緊縮也很可能會(huì)終止。”

In Shanghai, where the big Chinese lenders’ power centres are, and Hong Kong, where their offshore businesses are based, bankers talk of expansion rather than cutbacks.

在中國(guó)大型銀行的權(quán)力中心上海和他們的離岸業(yè)務(wù)基地香港，銀行家們談?wù)摰氖菙U(kuò)張，而不是收縮。

“A focus area for Chinese securities companies is establishing an effective foreign fundraising platform,” says Zhang Jingwei, financial analyst at Northeast Securities in Shanghai.

“中國(guó)券商的一個(gè)關(guān)注點(diǎn)是建立一個(gè)高效的海外融資平臺(tái)，”東北證券(Northeast Securities)駐上海金融分析師張經(jīng)緯說(shuō)。

He projects that mainland groups will then seek to expand their share of Chinese companies’ offshore fundraising. “They’ve also pushed into asset management — either helping foreign clients invest on the mainland or helping domestic clients abroad.”

他預(yù)計(jì)，內(nèi)地券商將尋求擴(kuò)大自己在中國(guó)企業(yè)離岸融資中的份額。“它們也闖進(jìn)了資產(chǎn)管理領(lǐng)域——要么幫助海外客戶投資于內(nèi)地，要么幫助國(guó)內(nèi)客戶對(duì)外投資。”

A debt syndicate director at a Chinese bank based in Hong Kong says his firm is hiring locally and has set up a debt syndicate desk in Singapore. “Most banks have been expanding in the first half of the year in this area,” he says. His group has hired “a few associate directors that once worked at global banks”.

中國(guó)一家銀行駐香港的債務(wù)銀團(tuán)業(yè)務(wù)總監(jiān)表示，他所在公司正在當(dāng)?shù)卣腥?，并已在新加坡設(shè)立了債務(wù)銀團(tuán)業(yè)務(wù)。“今年上半年，大多數(shù)銀行都在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域拓展業(yè)務(wù)，”他說(shuō)。他所在公司已聘用了“幾名曾在全球性銀行效力的副總監(jiān)”。

Some China banks have begun pushing into international markets to follow their corporate and private banking clients, and are targeting Chinese and foreign business in some Asian markets.

一些中國(guó)投行已開(kāi)始挺進(jìn)國(guó)際市場(chǎng)，追隨企業(yè)與私人銀行客戶的腳步，并瞄準(zhǔn)了部分亞洲市場(chǎng)上的中外企業(yè)。

A spokesperson for Citic, the largest Chinese investment bank by revenues, says the 68 countries covered by China’s One Belt One Road strategy “clearly present great opportunity”.

中國(guó)最大的投行中信證券的一名發(fā)言人表示，中國(guó)“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略所涵蓋的68個(gè)國(guó)家“明顯提供了很大機(jī)會(huì)”。

Citic pursues European and US opportunities through CLSA, the brokerage it bought from Crédit Agricole in 2013. CLSA pulled out of US equities in February because of challenging conditions, but is preparing to rebuild.

中信證券2013年從法國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)信貸銀行(Crédit Agricole)手中收購(gòu)了里昂證券(CLSA)，目前正通過(guò)這家券商在歐洲和美國(guó)發(fā)掘機(jī)會(huì)。今年2月，里昂證券因?yàn)樘幘称D難而關(guān)閉了美國(guó)股票業(yè)務(wù)，但目前正準(zhǔn)備重整旗鼓。

“The US is a market [we are] considering beyond the current CLSA offering of Asian equity sales and trading,” the spokesperson says. The group “is looking at what licences are needed” to expand its business in the US. In Europe, CLSA is “looking at opportunities” in commercial real estate.

“美國(guó)是(我們)在當(dāng)前里昂證券亞洲股票銷(xiāo)售與交易業(yè)務(wù)之外考慮的一個(gè)市場(chǎng)，”上述發(fā)言人說(shuō)。里昂證券正在考察在美國(guó)擴(kuò)張業(yè)務(wù)“需要哪些牌照”。在歐洲，里昂證券正在商業(yè)地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域“考察機(jī)會(huì)”。

Chinese banks have had early success abroad, including Citic/CLSA’s role as joint global co-ordinator for a dollar bond issued by Indonesia’s MedcoEnergi. But competitors and even some executives say there are limits to how far Chinese banks can go despite their scale — they include the world’s top four lenders by assets.

中國(guó)投行已在海外取得了初步成功，比如中信證券/里昂證券在印尼的MedcoEnergi發(fā)行一筆美元債券時(shí)擔(dān)任了全球聯(lián)席協(xié)調(diào)人。但它們的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手、甚至一些業(yè)內(nèi)高管都表示，中國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)在國(guó)際化方面存在局限，盡管它們規(guī)模龐大。

“Chinese brokerages need to carefully consider their entry points for foreign expansion,” says a Shanghai-based professional services executive who works with China investment banks. “Europe and America already have a large batch of top-grade brokerages and investment banks. There’s no shortage.”

“中國(guó)券商需要認(rèn)真考慮它們進(jìn)行海外擴(kuò)張的切入點(diǎn)，”上海一名與多家中國(guó)投行有合作的專業(yè)服務(wù)高管說(shuō)，“歐洲和美國(guó)已經(jīng)有一大批頂級(jí)券商和投行。根本就不缺好的機(jī)構(gòu)。”

One executive based in Hong Kong admits that his Chinese bank “can’t be global”. The executive says: “We cannot compete anywhere except for Asia. And even in Asia, we are quite limited.”

一位駐香港高管承認(rèn)，他所在的中資銀行“無(wú)法走向全球”。這位高管說(shuō)：“除亞洲之外，我們?cè)趧e的地方無(wú)力參與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。即便在亞洲，我們的業(yè)務(wù)也相當(dāng)有限。”