中國(guó)第三季度GDP數(shù)據(jù)的四個(gè)看點(diǎn)

China will report third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday, just as the Communist party convenes a meeting in which it will select a new slate of top leaders.

中國(guó)將在周四發(fā)布第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)數(shù)據(jù)，屆時(shí)中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨將正在舉行十九大，新一屆最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人班子最終將在會(huì)上亮相。

Global sentiment towards China has improved dramatically since last year, when concerns about capital flight and excessive debt led many foreign investors to conclude that policymakers were losing their ability to control risks.

全球市場(chǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)的信心自去年來(lái)顯著提升，那時(shí)資本外逃和過(guò)度負(fù)債引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂(yōu)，令許多外國(guó)投資者斷定，中國(guó)的政策制定者正在失去控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力。

Today, few observers believe that China is on the verge of a crisis, but investors will still be watching Thursday’s data for signs about whether China is addressing structural problems in its economy or simply kicking the can down the road.

如今，觀(guān)察家們不再認(rèn)為中國(guó)正處于一場(chǎng)危機(jī)的邊緣，但投資者們?nèi)詫㈥P(guān)注周四的數(shù)據(jù)，看是否有跡象顯示中國(guó)正在解決其經(jīng)濟(jì)的結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題，或只是在把問(wèn)題推到將來(lái)。

Here are four things to watch for in Thursday’s data dump.

周四發(fā)布的這批數(shù)據(jù)有四個(gè)看點(diǎn)：

1. Headline GDP

1、整體GDP

With inflation-adjusted growth of 6.9 per cent in the first half, China’s economy is on a path to meet — and probaby exceed — Beijing’s full-year target of “around 6.5 per cent”. At the current pace, this year would also mark an acceleration on last year’s growth of 6.7 per cent, the first such year-on-year pick-up since 2010.

中國(guó)上半年經(jīng)通脹調(diào)整后的增長(zhǎng)率為6.9%，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)達(dá)到——且很可能超過(guò)——北京方面提出的“6.5%左右”的全年目標(biāo)。以目前的速度，中國(guó)今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也將標(biāo)志著在去年6.7%的基礎(chǔ)上有所提速，這是中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)自2010年以來(lái)首次實(shí)現(xiàn)同比加速。

Economists expect that growth slowed to 6.8 per cent in the third quarter, according to a Reuters poll. But Zhou Xiaochuan, central bank governor, told the International Monetary Fund that growth could hit 7 per cent in the second half of 2017. Stronger headline growth would create breathing space for policymakers to focus on reducing debt, while an unexpectedly sharp slowdown would renew pressure for stimulus.

路透社(Reuters)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)測(cè)第三季度中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將放緩至6.8%。但中國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)周小川告訴國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)，2017下半年中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率可能達(dá)到7%。更強(qiáng)勁的整體增長(zhǎng)率將為政策制定者創(chuàng)造喘息的空間，讓他們聚焦于降低債務(wù)，而出乎意料的急劇下滑將再度帶來(lái)采取刺激措施的壓力。

2. Infrastructure

2、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施

China ramped up infrastructure spending last year to ensure strong growth in the run-up to this week’s party congress. With manufacturers still reluctant to expand given overcapacity in many sectors, the infrastructure share of overall fixed-asset investment hit a record high in the first eight months of this year.

中國(guó)去年加大了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出，以確保在本周的十九大之前保持強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)?？紤]到許多行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩導(dǎo)致制造企業(yè)仍不愿擴(kuò)張，今年前八個(gè)月，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施在總體固定資產(chǎn)投資中所占的份額創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

But economists doubt that infrastructure can continue to drive growth, especially since the finance ministry is clamping down on exotic financing techniques that local governments use to avoid official caps on borrowing. Monthly fixed-asset investment figures released alongside GDP on Thursday will show the extent to which infrastructure is still underpinning overall growth.

但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們懷疑基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施能否繼續(xù)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，特別是中國(guó)財(cái)政部正在打擊地方政府用別出心裁的融資手段來(lái)規(guī)避正式借款限制。周四隨GDP一同公布的月度固定資產(chǎn)投資數(shù)據(jù)，將顯示出基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施在多大程度上仍在支持著整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。

3. Property

3、房地產(chǎn)

Alongside infrastructure, real estate has been the other pillar supporting growth over the past 18 months. Rising housing prices and strong sales volumes have underpinned property investment, which in turn drives demand for commodities such as steel, copper and glass.

除基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施外，房地產(chǎn)是過(guò)去18個(gè)月支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的另一個(gè)支柱。上漲的房?jī)r(jià)與強(qiáng)勁的銷(xiāo)量支持著房地產(chǎn)投資，進(jìn)而拉動(dòng)了對(duì)鋼鐵、銅及玻璃等大宗商品的需求。

But local governments have imposed a series of increasingly tight restrictions on housing loans and purchases over the past year, amid concerns about a bubble. Property investment and sales data on Thursday will offer more evidence about the impact of those measures. The government’s aim is to calm the market but not to spark a slowdown in construction activity.

然而，在人們擔(dān)憂(yōu)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)存在泡沫的背景下，地方政府在過(guò)去一年對(duì)房貸和購(gòu)房實(shí)行了一系列越來(lái)越嚴(yán)厲的限制。周四公布的房地產(chǎn)投資與銷(xiāo)售數(shù)據(jù)，將為這些措施的影響提供更多證據(jù)。政府的目標(biāo)是讓市場(chǎng)平靜下來(lái)，而不致引發(fā)建筑活動(dòng)放緩。

4. Consumption

4、消費(fèi)

China’s economy is gradually rebalancing away from investment-driven growth towards greater reliance on consumption, but progress has been slower than many economists believe is required to avoid future problems.

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在逐漸再平衡，從投資驅(qū)動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向在更大程度上依賴(lài)消費(fèi)，但迄今的進(jìn)展慢于許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為避免未來(lái)問(wèn)題所需達(dá)到的速度。

Consumer confidence and household-income growth are near record highs, according to a proprietary survey by FT Confidential Research, an independent research service from the FT. But there are concerns that rising mortgage payments due to higher house prices are taking an ever-larger bite out of household income, hampering consumption.

英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》旗下的獨(dú)立研究機(jī)構(gòu)“FT投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的一項(xiàng)專(zhuān)有調(diào)查顯示，消費(fèi)者信心和家庭收入的增長(zhǎng)接近歷史高點(diǎn)。但有人擔(dān)心，更高的房?jī)r(jià)導(dǎo)致抵押貸款支出不斷增加，使其消耗掉越來(lái)越大比例的家庭收入，因而限制了消費(fèi)。

Consumption contributed 63 per cent of real GDP growth in the first half, up from an average of 55 per cent each year in the five years to the end of 2016. If the consumption share of growth rises further in the third quarter, it will be a sign that rebalancing is gaining steam.

上半年消費(fèi)貢獻(xiàn)了63%的實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)，高于在截至2016年底的5年期間55%的年均占比。如果第三季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的消費(fèi)份額進(jìn)一步提升，那將說(shuō)明再平衡正在形成勢(shì)頭。