中國環(huán)保行動(dòng)導(dǎo)致鐵礦石跌破每噸60美元

The price of steelmaking ingredient iron ore, a major source of profit for some of the world’s biggest mining companies, has fallen below $60 a tonne on concern demand will suffer from an environmental crackdown in China.

由于人們擔(dān)心中國的環(huán)保督查行動(dòng)將影響需求，鐵礦石價(jià)格已跌破每噸60美元。鐵礦石是煉鋼原料，也是世界上一些大型礦業(yè)公司的重要利潤來源。

Beijing has ordered heavily polluting industries that operate in the smog prone provinces of Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong to reduce output and curb emissions over the winter heating season, a period that runs from October to March.

北京方面命令在河北、山西和山東等容易產(chǎn)生霧霾的省份經(jīng)營的嚴(yán)重污染行業(yè)在冬季取暖季(每年10月至來年3月)減少產(chǎn)量、抑制排放。

Mills have started to cut steel production in some of the big cities in these areas, said traders, curbing demand for iron ore and other materials needed to make steel such as coking coal.

交易員表示，在上述省份的一些大城市里，鋼鐵企業(yè)已開始降低鋼產(chǎn)量，抑制了市場對鐵礦石和其他煉鋼原料(比如煉焦煤)的需求。

At the same time supplies from Australia, the world’s biggest producer of iron ore, have increased, further pressuring prices. 另一方面，來自世界最大鐵礦石生產(chǎn)國澳大利亞的供應(yīng)有所增加，令鐵礦石的價(jià)格進(jìn)一步承壓。

“We think 30m tonnes of [Chinese] steel production will be affected over the winter heating period,” said Serafino Capoferri, an analyst Macquarie, adding that was equivalent to about 48m tonnes of imported iron ore demand.

“我們認(rèn)為，在冬季取暖季，3000萬噸的(中國)鋼產(chǎn)量將受到影響，”麥格理(Macqarie)分析師塞拉菲諾•卡波費(fèi)里(Serafino Capoferri)說。他補(bǔ)充稱，這相當(dāng)于大約4800萬噸的進(jìn)口鐵礦石需求量。

The impact could be less pronounced if mills outside the restricted zone in China raise production or there is greater consumption of scrap. But even then it would still weigh on the market. Deutsche Bank estimates 30m tonnes of iron ore demand would be affected in this scenario.

如果在中國上述受限地區(qū)以外的鋼鐵企業(yè)提高產(chǎn)量，或者廢鋼消耗量增大，那么影響可能會(huì)不太明顯。但即便如此，這仍將對市場構(gòu)成壓力。據(jù)德銀(Deutsche Bank)估算，在這種情形下，3000萬噸的鐵礦石需求將受到影響。

On Tuesday, benchmark Australian iron ore fines fell 4.1 per cent to a three-month low of $59.1 a tonne, according to a price assessment by The Steel Index, taking losses since the start of September to more than 20 per cent.

根據(jù)鋼鐵指數(shù)公司(The Steel Index)的價(jià)格評估，周二，基準(zhǔn)澳大利亞鐵礦粉價(jià)格下降了4.1%，至每噸59.1美元的3個(gè)月低點(diǎn)，導(dǎo)致自9月初以來的累計(jì)降幅達(dá)到20%以上。

Over the past month, there has been a strong increase in supplies from Australia as a major new mine called Roy Hill has ramped up output and Rio Tinto has increased volumes in an effort to meet a full-year production target of 330m tonnes.

過去一個(gè)月里，來自澳大利亞的供應(yīng)大幅增加，因?yàn)榇笮托妈F礦Roy Hill提高了產(chǎn)量，而力拓(Rio Tinto)為實(shí)現(xiàn)3.3億噸的全年生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)也提高了產(chǎn)量。

Based on vessel movements in and out of ports, UBS reckons Rio shipped 84.6m tonnes of ore from its mines in Western Australia in the three months to September, a rise of almost 9 per cent on the previous quarter.

根據(jù)貨輪進(jìn)出港口的情況，瑞銀(UBS)估算出，今年第三季度，力拓從其位于西澳大利亞州(Western Australia)的礦場發(fā)運(yùn)的鐵礦石達(dá)到8460萬噸，環(huán)比增幅接近9%。

With supplies expected to remain robust over the rest of the quarter, prices could remain below $60 a tonne, said traders. However, the affect on profits at major mining houses will vary according to type of ore they produce.

交易員表示，由于供應(yīng)量在當(dāng)前季度的剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)保持強(qiáng)勁，鐵礦石價(jià)格可能會(huì)保持在每噸60美元以下。然而，這對于主要礦業(yè)公司利潤的影響將是不同的，取決于它們生產(chǎn)的鐵礦石類型。

The recent restriction on sintering in China — the highly polluting process that turns iron ore fines into a material that can be used in blast furnaces — has seen premiums for “direct charge” material such as lump and pellets spike sharply higher. That is a boon for companies such as Brazil’s Vale or Anglo American.

近來中國對燒結(jié)——這是把鐵礦粉變?yōu)榭梢栽诟郀t中使用的原料的污染嚴(yán)重的流程——的限制，已大幅推高塊礦和球團(tuán)礦等“直接”原料的溢價(jià)。這對巴西的淡水河谷(Vale)或英美資源(Anglo American)等企業(yè)構(gòu)成利好。

“We calculate that at current prices that Anglo’s Kumba mine is generating $5 a tonne more in margin that the traditional lowest-cost Australian mines at Rio or BHP Billiton,” said Tyler Broda, analyst at RBC Capital.

“根據(jù)我們的測算，在當(dāng)前價(jià)格水平上，英美資源旗下庫博(Kumba)礦場的利潤比力拓或必和必拓(BHP Billiton)位于澳大利亞的傳統(tǒng)上成本最低的礦場要高出5美元/噸，”加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)分析師泰勒•布羅達(dá)(Tyler Broda)表示。

That fact has helped support Anglo’s share price, which has risen almost 4 per cent over the past month, outperforming its peers and the iron ore price.

這一情況幫助維持了英美資源的股價(jià)，該股在過去1個(gè)月里上漲近4%，跑贏同行股價(jià)和鐵礦石價(jià)格。

Additional reporting by Henry Sanderson

孫德生(Henry Sanderson)補(bǔ)充報(bào)道